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Futurist: Talking About Machine Intelligence Short Term and Long Term.

I am a long-time Futurist, and technologist. In my career, I have spanned the birth of personal computers, to the rise of Cloud Computing.

Machine Intelligence coming in the remaining years of my worklife.

Machine Intelligence coming in the remaining years of my worklife.

Machine Intelligence is on the way. Let's talk about how soon...

There are several areas and technology I look forward to as a futurist that are well beyond what I would consider the remaining years of my life. But I do want to be fair; my life has two ends. The first is the end of my work life which is closer. The other is the end of my mortal coil that's a little further out. So I'd like to put technology into two forms in the future. The first form is a technology that will arrive in my work life. The second form is a technology that lies beyond my time on Earth. It is not something that I'm sad about is just something that I'm realistic in considering. Some things are yet to happen that are likely not to happen while I'm still working. That said, some capabilities are coming soon that will open the door to those later capabilities, and that's the interesting future of technology.

Let's talk about the things that will exist in my work life. The first, I believe, is the concept that is called EM. AI is, unfortunately, the definition of computer-based intelligence. I am not a big fan of the term AI. I prefer to call AI machine intelligence and, for the rest of this article, will call AI machine intelligence. EM is the concept of an emulated mind. A thinking machine capable of thinking like a human to a degree. Now some components of EM exist, and machine intelligence systems do many of the same mental tasks humans do. But the comprehensive, all-inclusive view of being able to emulate the human mind completely is not close. It is probably sometime in the next ten years. And by the way, I'm not saying that that initial EM will be a fully functioning replacement for the human brain. Rather, it will be capable of a human's independent and often idiosyncratic thinking. Non-Linear or idiosyncratic thinking for Machine Intelligence will allow them to consider alternative actions a human might take. For example, if you look at Kolberg's moral dilemmas, they often put a human in a very difficult situation to make a choice. That choice or type of choice would also be very difficult for machine intelligence to make. However, the reality is it is something that we can ultimately create a viable way for machine intelligence to emulate the human mind. And as I said, likely in the next ten years.

Another area in my work life where I see machine intelligence adding more and more value is the reality of automation. There are many things that human minds do that, if automated, would probably turn out better, like an Automation process that lives in your cellphone and interacts with the world for you. In several movies, the cell phone played with a concept of an extended intelligence capable of interacting with a human. There are several fields in many areas where simply having automated questions answered and asked in the right order would greatly benefit human life. I see that happening in the next few years as well.

Beyond my life, though, I have to say it is the one that people have probably talked about the longest. It is sometimes called convergence. Where a machine intelligence is capable of copying and then instantiating a human mind, in other words, you copy yourself as you die, and suddenly, you're alive forever. Or at least as long as that particular machine exists. Of course, I can see several arguments between that machine intelligence and humans ending with the human unplugging the device. Thereby effectively ending the discussion as a turned-off machine can't continue to argue. But that's for the science fiction writers to hash out. I do believe, however, that the convergence lies beyond my lifespan. Potentially it could be as much as 50, even 100 years from now.

Machine intelligence solutions coming beyond my physical life span.

Machine intelligence solutions coming beyond my physical life span.

What lies beyond my remaining years here on earth...

One of the greatest fears I hear in talking to many people about machine intelligence is the fear of replacement. The machine is far more capable than the human, and there is no longer a need to have the human in the role. I don't see that happening in many areas for a long time. I would argue that there are jobs we could have machines doing today, which would benefit humanity in the long run. It would remove the need for an oppressed labor force in some industries. The reality of machine intelligence, for the most part, lies ahead of us. As my dad used to say, that will blow your socks off. Things are coming that will be game-changers, and because of that, I am no longer wearing socks! If I'm wearing shoes without socks, you have to work much harder to blow socks off my feet! The reality is machine intelligence continues to get better and better. But the other side is that I think people often forget that humans create machine intelligence. It is an example at its best of humans at their best. The last thing I will end this article with is there will come a time when the first machine intelligence will become aware. Not aware of an interaction with a human but aware that it exists separate from the human beings. That is a long way off, but I think that is the next big test for humanity.

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This article is accurate and true to the best of the author’s knowledge. Content is for informational or entertainment purposes only and does not substitute for personal counsel or professional advice in business, financial, legal, or technical matters.

© 2022 DocAndersen

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