Week 4 was a great time for my picks. 13-3 was last week's record, only predicting incorrectly for the Browns/Falcons, Seahawks/Lions and Rams/49ers games - as well as only getting one bit of fantasy advice wrong (and even then it was debatable).
Alright, well that's enough celebrating. Time to get started on week 5!
Last Week's Record: 13-3
2022 Season Record: 39-25
Lock of the Week: 1-3
Upset of the Week: 2-2
Exact Scores Predicted: 0
Best Fantasy Advice: Start RB Jamaal Williams, 23 ppr points (19 rsh 108 yds 2 td 1 rec 1 yd)
Worst Fantasy Advice: Sit WR D.J. Moore, 12 ppr points (6 rec 50 yds, 1 rsh 11 yds)
Indianapolis (1-2-1) @ Denver (2-2)
This one will be full of banged up players and should be a sloppy game overall on Thursday night. Both teams have struggled offensively, but Denver should have just enough firepower on both offense and defense to sneak out with a win.
NY Giants (3-1) @ Green Bay (3-1)
I believe this will be a lowkey fun game. New York has impressed a bit so far this season, but Green Bay might be finding their rhythm, with their third straight win.
Romeo Doubs has been separating himself from some of the other receivers as Rodgers' go-to guy (he led the Packers in targets for the last two weeks) and should continue to do so this week.
Pittsburgh (1-3) @ Buffalo (3-1)
It looks as though this will be rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett's first NFL start... in Buffalo... with that offensive line... with Matt Canada as his offensive coordinator... and the Bills defense... I don't need to say much more. This is going to be brutal.
LA Chargers (2-2) @ Cleveland (2-2)
This game can go in a few different ways - and the outcome will depend on the overall game flow. Cleveland is a ground and pound football team (2nd in the league, with 187 rushing yards per game), and they should have no issue getting Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt rolling (the Chargers have allowed two straight 100+ yard rushers).
However, the other side of the game flow coin is Justin Herbert slinging the ball around for L.A. They are #1 in the league in passing (307 yards per game) and that could completely cancel out Cleveland's rushing attack if they try to make this more of a shootout... which I believe is where this one is headed.
Houston (0-3-1) @ Jacksonville (2-2)
Jacksonville played sloppy football in the rain during their 29-21 loss last week. I'm not necessarily holding it against them considering the weather conditions, but we will need to see a substantial bounce back from Trevor Lawrence (four fumbles and an interception) at home against a winless Texans squad. Jacksonville cannot afford for this to be a trap game - they need to pull away from the 2-2 Titans.
Chicago (2-2) @ Minnesota (3-1)
Coming off a thrilling 28-25 win in London last week, Minnesota returns home to host the somehow 2-2 Bears. They need to focus on the run game: getting it going again with Dalvin Cook off the injury report (currently ranked 22nd in rushing) and stopping Chicago's 3rd ranked run game.
Khalil Herbert has been fantastic for the Bears - 39 carries for 234 yards (6.0 yards per carry) and two touchdowns. If Minnesota makes a concerted effort to limit him and David Montgomery's (who should be back from injury) effectiveness, Justin Fields likely won't be able to throw Chicago to a victory.
Detroit (1-3) @ New England (1-3)
Talk about all or nothing - Detroit currently has the #1 overall offense (gaining 447 yards per game) while also having the league's worst defense (allowing 455 yards per game).
The Lions have been fun to watch, being the Hard Knocks team who's simply easy to root for.
Meanwhile the Patriots come in with a rather balanced and unexciting team (big surprise).
As of the time of this writing, Mac Jones is still questionable with his high ankle sprain - not sure about Brian Hoyer.
Rookie Bailey Zappe didn't look bad against Green Bay, forcing overtime against a future Hall of Fame quarterback in Aaron Rodgers.
Either way, I believe New England's starting quarterback will be outdueled by underrated Jared Goff.
Seattle (2-2) @ New Orleans (1-3)
These teams are somewhat evenly matched rankings wise. Neither offense is great, but can have a big day any given week, and both defenses can step up in the clutch moments.
The fun matchup to watch will be D.K. Metcalf vs Marshon Lattimore. The Saints have won each of their last three meetings and they held Metcalf to 4 catches, 163 yards and one touchdown in his only two games against New Orleans.
It will be interesting to see, as Metcalf has broken a huge play in each of those games, and one saw an 11 catch, 154 yard game with a score from Tyler Lockett as well.
I believe the home team will pull it off, but those are some fun stats to watch for.
Miami (3-1) @ NY Jets (2-2)
With Tua Tagovailoa's brutal concussions, Teddy Bridgewater will be starting under center this week in New York. Teddy Two Gloves is far from a bad quarterback and is actually an ideal backup in my opinion. He should be able to get the ball into the hands of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to allow them to make their big after-catch plays.
Zach Wilson looked surprisingly good last week in his season debut in Pittsburgh. However, Wilson has shown plenty of flashes of greatness in his short career, yet always lacked the consistency. I won't trust him to keep it up until he proves he can be consistent with his quality of play.
Atlanta (2-2) @ Tampa Bay (2-2)
Following their loss on Sunday night to Kansas City, Tom Brady and the Bucs should be out for blood.
They currently share the same record with Atlanta, who will be without star running back Cordarrelle Patterson (on IR with a knee injury). If Patterson were playing, I would have made this a close game. However, the Falcons simply won't have the firepower to compete in this one.
Tennessee (2-2) @ Washington (1-3)
Tennessee would be my pick here with the potential resurgence of Derrick Henry, but their 28th ranked pass defense terrifies me. Carson Wentz has shown he's more than capable of putting up big numbers on a bad secondary, and this week should be another example of that.
If the Titans can get a couple of every turnovers and a quick lead on Washington it could be a different story, but I believe Wentz will simply outduel Ryan Tannehill in the end.
San Francisco (2-2) @ Carolina (1-3)
San Francisco reminded everyone on Monday night that their defense is elite. They racked up seven sacks, a fumble and an interception off of Matthew Stafford.
While Jimmy Garoppolo was nothing amazing, that should be expected - the 49ers are a defensive/run game based football team... and they're heading into Carolina next.
The Baker Mayfield experiment has been nothing short of a failure; he simply isn't a good quarterback. San Francisco should wreck him this week and hopefully we see Sam Darnold step in as the starter for the Panthers sooner rather than later... for everybody's sake.
Philadelphia (4-0) @ Arizona (2-2)
This should be a fun game, as Arizona's pass defense 23rd, while Jalen Hurts and the Eagles are 6th in that offensive category.
I fully expect a game similar to the Raiders/Cardinals from week 2, without the miracle comeback win.
Philadelphia will storm out to a lead of 21-0 or 28-7, and Kyler will lead consecutive scoring drives to make the final score look close, as Philadelphia moves on to 5-0 on the year.
Dallas (3-1) @ LA Rams (2-2)
Is it time to officially start believing in Cooper Rush? He is 3-0 as a starter this year after all... I am quite skeptical, but if he can look good against the Rams and get the win, then I'll believe in him.
I just don't see that happening. The Rams have been struggling this season, but playing a home game against a pumped up Cowboys team just feels like a week where the defending Super Bowl champs get back on track.
Cincinnati (2-2) @ Baltimore (2-2)
My game of the week - a divisional game that will see the potential of 70+ combined points on Sunday night football.
Both offenses have the capability to score major points, and both have been performing poorly against the pass.
Despite the Ravens being the worst pass defense in the entire league, I believe Lamar Jackson will pull out the clutch win at home in a game of the year candidate.
Las Vegas (1-3) @ Kansas City (3-1)
Not much needs to be said on this one. The Chiefs look like the old Chiefs, meanwhile Las Vegas barely beat a struggling Broncos team.
Kansas City is slowly constructing a running game with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Isaiah Pacheco (I'm still not a fan of CEH, but he's definitely had his moments). The Raiders might get a late score to pull close, but this win shouldn't be any real issue for the Chiefs.
- RB Melvin Gordon, Broncos: vs Colts
The Broncos are one of the most boring teams to watch in the league, but they love to run the football. With the unfortunate injury to you star Javonte Williams, it looks like Gordon will be getting the majority of the work. Mike Boone should see some 3rd down action, but Gordon should receive the bulk of the workload this week.
- WR Devonta Smith, Eagles: @ Cardinals
Arizona is in the bottom third when it comes to defending the pass. In every game so far, they have allowed (at least) two players to go over the 50 yard mark... Philly's A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith are both plenty capable smashing that stat line this week, as we saw in week 2 and week 3.
- TE Pat Freiermuth, Steelers: @ Bills
Freiermuth has been a solid start at tight end for those who don't have one of the elite guys. However, the fact that the best tight end performance versus Buffalo all season was Tyler Higbee in week 1 (5 rec 39 yds), plus a rookie quarterback in the fold makes him a stay away this week.
- RB James Conner, Cardinals: vs Eagles
James Conner was a fantasy savior last season but only because of his 18 touchdowns. Arizona's offense has not lived up to those expectations this season.
The Eagles are elite when it comes to stopping the run - D'Andre Swift has been the only running back to rush for over 38 yards against them in the week 1 shootout with Detroit (he had 144 yards).
Conner does not have the talent to break that trend.
Game of the Week:
Ravens 38, Bengals 35
Lock of the Week:
49ers 24, Panthers 6
Upset of the Week:
Commanders 27, Titans 21
Player of the Week:
WR Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals: @ Ravens
15 targets, 12 rec 138 yds 2 td
Favorite point spread:
49ers (-6.0) @ Panthers