Week 11 was a pretty successful week for my picks, at 9-5. There were plenty of close games and I nailed my lock (Ravens over Panthers).
This is Thanksgiving week and we're inching closer to the playoffs!
Happy Thanksgiving everyone, I hope you enjoy reading my mini guide and have a great day!
Last Week's Record: 9-5
2022 Season Record: 97-67
Lock of the Week: 6-5
Upset of the Week: 4-7
Exact Scores Predicted: 0
Best Fantasy Advice: Start QB Aaron Rodgers, 19 pts (24/39 227 yds 2 td)
Worst Fantasy Advice: Start Saints Defense, 4 pts
Buffalo (7-3) @ Detroit (4-6)
Playing their second straight game in Detroit on Thanksgiving, the Bills are seemingly back on track. Josh Allen didn't have a great game in their win over Cleveland last week, but he didn't throw an interception either.
The Bills race off to a hot start in this one, as their run defense also slows down Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift to the point where it will be all up to Jared Goff. Buffalo wins this one handily.
NY Giants (7-3) @ Dallas (7-3)
My Game of the Week, the winner of this battle will be in 2nd place in the toughest division in football.
Dallas was unstoppable in their 40-3 decimation over Minnesota on Sunday.
The Giants fell to Detroit, as Daniel Jones threw a pair of interceptions and rookie receiver Wan'Dale Robinson went down to a torn ACL.
Micah Parsons will lead the pass rush to pressure Jones constantly, and the duo of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard should be enough to get the win.
New England (6-4) @ Minnesota (8-2)
While Minnesota allowed over 120 yards to the Zeke/Pollard duo, the Patriots only rushed for about 90 last week between Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris.
They will be the key to New England winning this game.
I believe enough in Kirk Cousins to put up a much better performance than we saw last week. The Vikings win in another one score game.
Denver (3-7) @ Carolina (3-8)
I'm not going to say much about this one. Both teams suck and I'm giving the edge to the home team. Maybe Sam Darnold provides a slight spark for this offense? I don't know...
Tampa Bay (5-5) @ Cleveland (3-7)
Could Tampa Bay be back on track? I... I believe they are. They have won two in a row while the Browns have lost two in a row.
They're not putting up 30+ points per game, but they're doing what they need to do to win.
The Bucs have a new starter at running back in rookie Rachaad White, and the Browns happen to be 23rd against the run... sounds like a recipe for success for the road team.
Baltimore (7-3) @ Jacksonville (3-7)
Baltimore is ready to make their playoff push and are one of the hottest teams in the league right now. Despite only managing 13 points in their win over Carolina, the Ravens have won five of their last six games, including four in a row.
Jacksonville has many issues of their own and shouldn't pose any sort of threat this week.
Houston (1-8-1) @ Miami (7-3)
Speaking of hot teams, Miami has also won four straight. Their offense is one of the most dynamic units in the entire league.
Houston has been one of the league's biggest punching bags this season (30th total defense, dead last against the run).
I can easily this this being 100+ yards on the ground for Jeff Wilson, with 100+ receiving yards to Tyreek Hill and another 80 to Jaylen Waddle. This is going to get ugly.
Chicago (3-8) @ NY Jets (6-4)
In what looks to be a close battle, the Jets attempt to keep pace in the AFC East. Following their second loss to the Pats, New York finds themselves at the bottom of their division despite a solid 6-4 record. Zach Wilson has been benched for Mike White, so I could see some extra motivation from New York's offensive weapons.
The Bears seem to have nothing to play for record wise, but want to give more experience to guys like quarterback Justin Fields. He did injure his non throwing shoulder last week.
I'd expect the Jets to take this one at home even if Fields were fully healthy.
Cincinnati (6-4) @ Tennessee (7-3)
In a potential playoff matchup, Cincinnati visits the seemingly always underrated Tennessee Titans.
This should be a good, close game with neither defense particularly great at what the opposing offense is known for. The Bengals are 17th against the run, while Tennessee is 30th in defending the pass.
This seems like a down to the wire field goal type of game. I think the Titans will win time of possession with Derrick Henry and that will aid them in controlling the pace of the final moments of the 4th quarter.
Atlanta (5-6) @ Washington (6-5)
This should be a fun game. Atlanta has shown some ability to put up points in the past with Drake London and Cordarrelle Patterson - they will likely see a boost in targets considering Kyle Pitts was placed on IR. They can break plays open any given down.
We know about Washington with the fun story surrounding Taylor Heinicke taking over the quarterback job. They have great weapons in Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Jahan Dotson and their two running backs.
The Commanders are definitely my pick here, as they're much more consistent than Atlanta - especially in the last two months. They are 4 points shy of riding a six game winning streak. Washington is trying to make a playoff push.
LA Chargers (5-5) @ Arizona (4-7)
Both of these teams are disappointments, but LA has shown signs of life. Justin Herbert looked great against Kansas City last week, and should have his way with Arizona's 24th ranked defense.
Las Vegas (3-7) @ Seattle (6-4)
The Raiders absolutely suck. Two of their three wins this year came against the extremely disappointing Broncos (the other win was over the Houston Texans).
Seattle is going to handle business for sure, as Geno Smith continues his ridiculous season of proving everyone who doubted him wrong.
Vegas gets a late touchdown to make the score seem more respectable.
LA Rams (3-7) @ Kansas City (8-2)
Kansas City is coming off an intense 30-27 win over the Chargers on Sunday night.
The Rams are one of the biggest disappointments of the year.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are going to WRECK Los Angeles at home. It won't be even remotely close.
New Orleans (4-7) @ San Francisco (6-4)
San Francisco looks dangerous, as they dismantled the Cardinals on Monday night. I definitely don't expect Jimmy Garoppolo to recreate his 4 touchdown performance this week, but the 49ers will take down Andy Dalton and the Saints with relative ease.
49ers, 28- 13
Green Bay (4-7) @ Philadelphia (9-1)
If Green Bay beat Tennessee last week, I would absolutely pick them for the upset. Philadelphia has shown chinks in their armor the last three weeks.
Despite beating Houston, they allowed 139 rushing yards to running back Dameon Pierce. Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson combined for 130 on the ground for the Commanders in Philly's one loss, and Indianapolis nearly pulled off the upset last week with Jonathan Taylor's 84 rushing yards.
Philadelphia is beatable on the ground and Green Bay could take advantage of that with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.
All that being said, I'm still rolling with the Eagles, as Jalen Hurts and this offense has just been incredible.
Pittsburgh (3-7) @ Indianapolis (4-6-1)
Speaking of Indy, they seem to be a more motivated team since Jeff Saturday took over. Pittsburgh has also looked much better as of late as well.
Despite both teams having losing records and coming off of loses from a week ago, this could be a fun game.
I believe the difference in the end will be T.J. Watt leading the Pittsburgh defense, as that unit will force 3+ turnovers on Matt Ryan to steal the win.
- RB Rachaad White, Bucs: @ Browns
White is the new starter in Tampa Bay over a struggling Leonard Fournette and should do well in this role. He's fast, a smart runner and can catch as he goes up against a weak run defense. Fournette will still see some work, but I can easily see a big day for Rachaad White.
- RB Jeff Wilson Jr., Dolphins: vs Texans
The Texans are literally dead last against the run, as they a Miami team who has a running back in Jeff Wilson who is more than capable of a 150+ yard performance. Between 100+ yards rushing and some receiving work, I expect a HUGE game from Jeff Wilson.
- QB Matt Ryan, Colts: vs Steelers
Ryan has looked decent since returning to the starting lineup. He has been able to get the ball to Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell pretty regularly. However, T.J. Watt and the Pittsburgh defense are going make his life hell this week. They rack up 3 sacks and 3 turnovers on the veteran quarterback.
- WR D.J. Moore, Panthers: vs Broncos
In a fantasy football season with plenty of disappointments, D.J. Moore has to be one of the biggest ones for me personally. He has one breakout game (week 8 in Atlanta) and the rest have been mediocre at best.
Denver has an elite defense with a secondary who (despite huge games the last two weeks from Davante Adams and Nick Westbrook-Ihkine) usually doesn't allow huge games to opposing wide receivers.
This will be a low scoring matchup, so I don't expect too much fantasy output from anyone in this game.
Game of the Week:
Cowboys 28, Giants 20
Lock of the Week:
Dolphins 38, Texans 13
Upset of the Week:
Steelers 24, Colts 23
Player of the Week:
QB Justin Herbert, Chargers: @ Cardinals
31/44 371 yds 3 td
Favorite point spread:
Chargers (-3) @ Cardinals