Last season saw the ACC clearly divided into two divisions, with NC State and Clemson occupying the space between. The league sent that seven team first division to the NCAA Tournament, where Virginia bounced back from the biggest upset in NCAA Tournament history to win the first NCAA Championship in school history as well as the ninth National Title for an ACC team in the last 19 years. The lone offseason coaching change was a complete surprise in multiple ways, with Buzz Williams departing for his home state after taking Virginia Tech to its first Sweet 16 since the Tournament first expanded to 32 teams while Danny Manning held on at Wake Forest for a possible lame duck season on primarily contractual grounds and Boston College kept Jim Christian around because they’re evidently used to being bad at basketball now. The ACC landed 20 of the nation’s top 100 high school recruits and received significant reinforcements through the transfer market, but heavy losses to graduation and the NBA Draft and a postseason ban for Georgia Tech could limit the conference to six NCAA Tournament berths. Finally, a rule change moving the 3 point line back to the international distance could have a significant impact for all of college basketball; among other things, scoring in the paint will get easier for teams that still shoot well, while the adjustment from high school to college will get even harder.
*This article will be updated for personnel changes through the beginning of the season and will receive additional updates prior to the start of the full conference schedule in January and prior to Tournament play.
Florida State Seminoles
2018-2019: 29-8, 13-5 in the ACC (4th); lost to Gonzaga in the Sweet 16
Preseason Projection: 8th in the ACC; NIT
Final Regular Season Record: 26-5, 16-4 in the ACC (1st)
Departures: Mfiondu Kabengele (13.2 ppg., 5.9 rpg., 1.5 bpg., 36.9% 3pt.) was a 1st Round pick the NBA Draft; Terance Mann (11.4 ppg., 6.5 rpg., 39.0% 3pt.), Phil Cofer (7.4 ppg., 34.9% 3pt.), Christ Koumadje (6.6 ppg., 5.6 rpg., 1.4 bpg.), David Nichols (6.4 ppg.), and PJ Savoy (5.9 ppg.) graduated
Last year’s Florida State team was the third consecutive that Leonard Hamilton led to at least one victory in the NCAA Tournament. That team was led by a large and accomplished group of seniors; unfortunately, while Hamilton always has lots of depth, even at Florida State losing 6 of the top 8 players is a big deal. The Seminoles welcome another large and promising class, but there are pieces missing that will present challenges.
Without Mann, Trent Forrest will bear tremendous responsibility leading the Florida State offense. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing as far as Forrest (9.3 ppg., 4.5 rpg., 3.7 apg., 1.9 spg.) is concerned; he’s a solid distributor that sees the floor well as a large, 6-4 point guard, he can get to the rim, and he doesn’t try to force things he isn’t good at, specifically shooting from the perimeter. He’s also an outstanding defensive player, although his effort level at both ends of the floor can contribute to limiting his playing time (it won’t be practical to ask him to play much more than the 29.9 minutes per game he played last season). RayQuan Evans, a successful junior college transfer with a skill set similar to Forrest, will serve as his backup; he should represent an improvement from Nichols in every area except perimeter shooting. Unfortunately, there is no clear heir apparent to Mann as a secondary facilitator and playmaker at the other perimeter positions. M.J. Walker (7.5 ppg.), the other likely starter in the backcourt, has shown flashes of the potential that made him a 5 star recruit, but he’s been tremendously inconsistent and hasn’t even shot particularly well. Despite being significantly less heralded, another 6-5 guard, Devin Vassell, actually seemed like a better prospect last season. When given the opportunity, Vassell was active at both ends of the floor and his per minute production was much higher than Walker’s, and even as a freshman he was a more efficient offensive player (41.9% 3pt., more assists than turnovers). He should assume a larger role as a sophomore. A newly added 5 star prospect, Patrick Williams, will play a significant role in the perimeter rotation as well. He can create his own shot and should be able to shoot the 3 right away, and at 6-6 he adds another quality defender that will help out on the boards. Anthony Polite will again receive minutes as part of the extended rotation, but he didn’t show much as a freshman beyond the nine points he scored against Murray St. in the NCAA Tournament, while junior college transfer Nathanael Jack will attempt to help fill Savoy’s role as a three point specialist.
Balsa Koprivica, an active and mobile 7-1, 260 pound top 50 recruit, will take over in the post. While he might not be quite the defensive presence of Kabengele or Koumadje as a freshman, he does have face up skills that will help the offense. Koprivica is a willing and capable passer out of the post, which definitely could not be said of the departed duo and will be particularly helpful for a team that could struggle to move the basketball. With freshman Naheem McLeod being ruled academically ineligible, 7 foot graduate transfer Dominik Olejniczak, who wasn’t tremendously productive in his time at Ole Miss, will serve as Koprivica's backup. Raiquan Gray will step in at power forward after starting a handful of games when Cofer was injured. Gray isn’t the shooter Cofer was, but he provides more ballhandling and passing ability and, at 6-8, 260 pounds, he will be more helpful on the boards. Transfer Malik Osborne, who was reasonably productive as a freshman at Rice (9.0 ppg., 6.5 rpg.), will provide depth behind Gray.
Even with Mann and Kabengele, who was able to create his own shot and score effectively from the center position, Florida State wasn’t exactly efficient offensively last season (183rd in fg%, 238th in 3pt.%, and 230th in assist to turnover ratio); without them, scoring is going to be more of a challenge. As always, the Seminoles will have plenty of length, athleticism, and depth to compete at a high level defensively and on the boards for 40 minutes (29th in fg% defense, 41st in rebounding margin last season), although they won’t have quite as much rim protection without Kabengele and Koumadje. If some combination of Williams, Vassell, Walker, Koprivica, and Gray can step in and help provide a competent offense, there is still the possibility of a fourth consecutive NCAA Tournament berth for the Seminoles; if not, the team should at least manage enough wins for a NIT appearance.
December 14 Pre-conference Update: Leonard Hamilton has again assembled a roster full of NBA caliber athletes (Devin Vassell looks like a future NBA 3 and d wing, while five star recruit Patrick Williams is a year away), and they have performed well in their non-conference schedule. The team shoots well enough, although the departure of Terrance Mann is definitely being felt at the offensive end; Florida State has had almost twice as many turnovers as assists in their games against Pitt, Tennessee, Purdue, and Indiana, and they currently rank 242nd in assist to turnover ratio. Rebounding has also taken a hit with the reset at center, dropping from 41st in rebounding margin a year ago to 171st this season. The Seminoles are closing out games by putting their best defensive lineup on the floor instead of their best offensive group, and they have been outstanding at that end, currently ranking 24th in field goal percentage defense, 34th in steals, and 39th in blocked shots. FSU is well on their way to another NCAA Tournament berth, but their offensive limitations and average rebounding mean that their ceiling is lower than it was a year ago.
February 27 Pre-Tournament Update: The Seminoles have figured things out offensively in ACC play to the extent that they now hold solid offensive efficiency numbers, including an assist to turnover ratio now up to a respectable 1 to 1. Devin Vassell has not only emerged as a go to scorer, but he has also served as the supplemental facilitator the team needed following Terrance Mann's departure, posting a team leading 2 to 1 assist to turnover ratio. Vernon Carey is likely to win Conference Player of the Year, but it should be Vassell; in conference play, he is second on the Seminoles in minutes per game (30.5), first in points (14.1 ppg.) and rebounds (5.9 rpg.) per game, assist to turnover ratio (1.9 to 1), and three point percentage (46.9% 3pt.), second in assists (1.9 apg.) and steals (1.2 spg.) per game, and tied for first in blocks (1.0 bpg.) per game. Carey leads his team in points (16.5 ppg.), rebounds (8.4 rpg.), and blocks (1.1 bpg.). Led by their defense, senior point guard Trent Forrest, and likely first round draft picks Vassell and Patrick Williams, the Seminoles now seem capable of equaling or even surpassing what they accomplished in last year's NCAA Tournament, and should be considered a legitimate National Title contender.
Duke Blue Devils
2018-2019: 32-6, 14-4 in the ACC (3rd); lost to Michigan St. in the Elite 8
Preseason Projection: 2nd in the ACC; Final Four
Final Regular Season Record: 25-6, 15-5 in the ACC (tie for 2nd)
Departures: Zion Williamson (22.6 ppg., 8.9 rpg., 2.1 spg., 1.8 bpg.), R.J. Barrett (22.6 ppg., 7.6 rpg., 4.3 apg.), and Cam Reddish (13.5 ppg.) were top 10 picks in the NBA Draft; Marques Bolden (5.3 ppg., 4.5 bpg., 1.7 bpg.) also entered the NBA Draft
Mike Krzyzewski had his work cut out for him a year ago with only one player, Marques Bolden, having previously received anything resembling significant playing time. Even with 3 eventual top 10 draft picks, Duke’s Elite 8 finish was an impressive feat of team building. This year’s Blue Devils will again be heavily dependent on freshmen and may be slightly less talented overall, but with four significant contributors returning Krzyzewski at least isn’t looking at another complete rebuild.
As far as experience is concerned, it doesn’t get much better than a point guard that isn’t seeing his first rodeo, and Tre Jones will be looking to build on a solid freshman campaign. Jones proved to be one of the better defensive point guards in the country, and he was an extremely efficient ball handler and distributor, maintaining a better than 3 to 1 assist to turnover ratio. Unfortunately, his job at point guard will get substantially more difficult without the playmaking ability of Barrett and Williamson. Jones did struggle with perimeter shooting to the point that defenses started to abandon him when he was off the ball on the perimeter, but he will undoubtedly be focused on it as he attempts to build his case as a first round pick in next year’s draft. Perimeter shooting was the biggest weakness for last year’s Blue Devils (328th in 3pt.%), but that wasn’t a death blow to the offense due to the ability of Williamson and Barrett to score inside the arc (26th in overall fg%). Without them, the Blue Devils will need to rediscover what is traditionally a major strength for the program. Jones's backup, junior Jordan Goldwire, won’t help with that or any type of scoring, but he does play excellent defense and take care of the basketball. Alex O’Connell will help as the team’s best returning perimeter shooter (37.5% 3pt.), and he should see his role expand as a junior. At 6-6, he’s also a mobile defender that was also to handle playing point guard for short periods last season. Joey Baker, a top 40 recruit as an early entrant a year ago, could be ready to provide perimeter shooting as well. A pair of highly regarded, athletic 6-5 wings will see major playing time at shooting guard and small forward. Wendell Moore, a 5 star recruit, should make an immediate impact at the defensive end, while offensively he can attack the basket as well as find the open man. Cassius Stanley, a top 30 prospect, is an explosive leaper with great mobility that is the more likely of the two to be able to hit a 3 as a freshman. Increased spacing benefits explosive athletes more than anyone, and the Blue Devils added two of them in Moore and Stanley. If Duke is able to shoot the 3 well, they are the players most likely to take advantage and get to the rim off the dribble.
The need for shooting is the reason Matthew Hurt is likely to be the most important of Duke’s freshmen. As a top 10 recruit and one of the best shooters in his class, he should have no problem with the new line. He’s also a threat to score in the paint and a capable passer that will help the Blue Devils remain efficient offensively. Hurt will be a fairly lean freshman and will need to add strength in time, but even at 6-9, 215 pounds he will be one of the larger players at his position with most of the ACC playing smaller lineups. If Hurt doesn’t develop into Duke’s leading scorer, fellow top ten recruit Vernon Carey, a 6-11, 275 pound widebody in the Jahlil Okafor mold, certainly could. There aren’t many college players that will be able to knock him off the block, and the new 3 point line will give him more room to work before guards can collapse on him. Carey has also developed his perimeter jump shot, although it is yet to be seen whether it can extend to the new line. He should be able to replace a significant amount of the rebounding lost with Williamson’s departure, although he doesn’t really offer the athleticism to be an intimidating shot blocker. 6-10 junior Javin DeLaurier does provide that sort of athleticism, and he will again provide energy defensively and on the boards as well as rim protection off the bench. Jack White, a 6-7 senior who will see time at both forward spots, provides more of the same, and he can also help Duke with perimeter shooting if he's able to avoid another major cold stretch. White suffered through a 12 game, 0-26 slump from behind the arc, and ended the season in a six game draught as well, but he managed to shoot 41.5% from 3 the rest of the year. If he shoots well, he’s a huge plus for the Blue Devils. With Hurts’s ball skills and White’s mobility, the two would be able to be paired at the forward spots at times to allow Krzyzewski to completely spread the floor.
While there is reason to believe the Blue Devils can shoot better from the perimeter than they did a year ago, scoring could still be more difficult without Barrett and Williamson. Being able to play from the inside out will help. At the other end of the floor, Duke should still defend the perimeter well and generate steals (16th in 3pt.% defense and 6th in steals a year ago), but their post defense could take a hit. Carey’s lateral movement will be a particular concern with more open space on the floor, and without Williamson and Bolden the Blue Devils won’t have quite as much rim protection as they did a year ago when they led the country in blocked shots. Still, Mike Krzyzewski will again have one of the most talented teams in college basketball, and a little bit of experience should go a long way. Duke, like their long time rivals, should be in the National Championship hunt in March.
December 12 Pre-conference Update: Of all the ACC teams with high preseason expectations, no one has played better than the Blue Devils. The five star freshmen have all at least shown glimpses of why they were so highly regarded, with Cassius Stanley (14.1 ppg., 5.3 rpg., 1.4 bpg., 50% 3pt.% in 7 healthy games) and Vernon Carey Jr. well on their way to being first round draft picks. Carey (18.5 ppg., 9.2 rpg., 2.2 bpg.) has led the way; he more than held his own in the season opening win against Kansas, and he’s been the best big man on the floor in almost every game since. Alex O’Connell should probably transfer at the end of the season after having the rug pulled out from under him once more, this time in favor of emerging sophomore Joey Baker, but otherwise Duke should now be considered the favorite to win the ACC.
February 26 Pre-Tournament Update: Mike Krzyzewski may have taken a temporary misstep by moving to a four guard lineup in an attempt to get his best five players on the floor; the team simply hasn’t been able to compete in the paint and protect the rim. Matthew Hurt is a defensive liability that teams have begun to attack and isn’t the answer. Jack White, who has been bizarrely marginalized, might be; White has always been an energetic and productive rebounder and shot blocker, and he shoots the 3 well enough to allow the team to continue to stretch the floor. The Blue Devils will also need to figure out how to score in late game situations, which has been a problem in both of their recent upsets; without a dominant one on one scorer, they may need to use more designed plays. Duke hasn’t played tough recently, but the roster is deep and talented enough that the answers for most questions should at least be available. While they are looking less like a Final Four team, the Blue Devils have played too well at both ends of the floor (currently 9th in offensive efficiency and 14th in defensive efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy) not to still be considered a Championship contender.
2018-2019: 20-14, 10-8 in the ACC (tie for 6th); lost to Minnesota in the NCAA Round of 64
Preseason Projection: 4th in the ACC; NCAA Round of 32
Final Regular Season Record: 24-7, 15-5 in the ACC (tie for 2nd)
Departures: Christen Cunningham (10.1 ppg., 4.8 apg.) and Khwan Fore graduated; V.J. King entered the NBA Draft
Chris Mack’s first season at Louisville was a relative success, returning the Cardinals to the NCAA Tournament after a one year absence despite having limited options in the backcourt. The team now returns what could be the best frontcourt in the nation and welcomes Mack’s first recruiting class at the school which includes five top 100 recruits, although a clear heir apparent at point guard is noticeably missing.
Christen Cunningham was really Louisville’s only complete guard last year, and the team was so dependent on him as their floor general that they could barely afford to take him off the court in close games down the stretch. Replacing him will be Mack’s biggest challenge. Multiple outlets have implied that graduate transfer Lamarr Kimble will take over, but that just isn’t a realistic expectation. Kimble is a 6-0 guard that barely had more assists than turnovers as a junior (2.8 apg. to 2.1 tpg.) and has shot the ball poorly for most of his career (39.7% overall, 29.2% 3pt. last year); to expect that to improve while moving from the A-10 to the ACC doesn’t make sense. By contrast, Cunningham was 8th in the country in assists per game and shot 35.4% from 3 in his last healthy season before transferring from Samford. Darius Perry, a former top 60 recruit, is another option, but he has done little to inspire confidence as a distributor in his first two seasons. He did at least shoot the ball well (37.5% 3pt.) as a sophomore and he excels defensively. The team’s best hope may have been freshman combo guard David Johnson, a top 80 recruit who at least passes well and would be an asset defensively at 6-5. Unfortunately, his development was slowed significantly by an offseason shoulder injury that will last into the season. Johnson doesn’t handle the ball as smoothly as most point guards at this point and wasn’t likely to shoot the new 3 well as a freshman, so there were things he needed to work on. Samuel Williamson, the most highly regarded newcomer as a top 20 recruit, should take over at shooting guard. Williamson has a strong midrange game, although it will be interesting to see if Louisville will be able to space the floor well enough for him to take advantage of it. At an athletic 6-7, he will be a positive addition defensively and on the boards. Josh Nickelberry, a 6-4 top 100 recruit with explosive leaping ability, will be in the perimeter mix as well. Neither is likely to be helpful from the new 3 point line as a freshman. Ryan McMahon (7.2 ppg., 35.3% 3pt.) is still available as a 3 point specialist off the bench, although his contributions in other areas are limited. He may still need to see significant minutes for Louisville to be able to space the floor.
Louisville’s frontcourt is loaded with veterans with NBA potential, and that is the primary source of optimism for significant improvement in Mack’s second year. The surprising return of Jordan Nwora, in particular, serves to boost expectations. Nwora (17.0 ppg., 7.6 rpg., 37.4% 3pt.) emerged as a star as a sophomore, shooting a high percentage of a large volume of 3 point attempts with his quick release while also quickly attacking the rim off of hard closeouts. With long arms at 6-8, he’s also an excellent rebounder. Unfortunately, Nwora doesn’t help move the basketball, and he turned the ball over nearly twice as much as he dished out assists. Senior Dwayne Sutton (10.0 ppg., 6.9 rpg., 34.8% 3pt.) became a star of a different sort last season, consistently making hustle plays at both ends of the court to help the team while also improving as a three point shooter. Centers Malik Williams and Steven Enoch returned after testing the NBA Draft waters as well. Williams began to fulfill the promise that made him a top 20 recruit as a sophomore. While he continues to try to establish his ability to hit 3’s, he proved that he can be an effective post scorer, and, with his unique athleticism at 6-11, he was easily the team’s best per minute rebounder and shot blocker (6.1 rpg. and 1.2 bpg. In 18.2 mpg.). If he's fully recovered from an offseason foot injury and Mack can find him more minutes, he could emerge as the best post player in the conference. Enoch (9.4 ppg., 5.2 rpg., 35.9% 3pt.) began the season as a starter and provided solid contributions in the post as well. He actually shot better from distance than Williams, but was eventually replaced by his longer and more athletic counterpart. Williams is mobile enough that the pair could play together, allowing Mack to take full advantage of his big 4 up front, although he didn't attempt to do so last season and he will want to find time for his freshmen bigs as well. Aidan Igiehon, a 6-10 top 50 recruit, has long term potential due to his size and strength, but his game is a work in progress.
Even with Cunningham’s efforts, Louisville struggled with offensive efficiency a year ago, finishing 228th in field goal percentage and 193rd in 3 point percentage; without him or an obvious replacement, those numbers could get worse. While the Cardinals have plenty of length and athleticism that could potentially excel with increased spacing (Williamson in particular would excel in space), they may not have enough perimeter shooting to take advantage of it. Fortunately, the offensive rebounding efforts of Williams, Sutton, and Enoch (the Cardinals were 30th in offensive rebounds per game) will help. More importantly, Louisville excelled defensively and on boards in Mack’s first year (30th in fg% defense, 55th in 3pt.% defense, and 65th in rebound margin), and could become elite as they get longer and more athletic on the perimeter. If either Perry or eventually Johnson is able to step up and run the offense efficiently, Louisville has the talent to compete at the top of the ACC and be a major threat in March; if not, they have more than enough talent at every other position for a return to the Tournament and a chance to advance beyond the first round.
December 11 Pre-conference Update: Louisville has been dominant at times during their non-conference schedule, highlighted by a blowout win against Michigan in the ACC-Big 10 Challenge. However, while they were briefly ranked number one, the vast majority of their games have been played at home, with their only real challenge away from Louisville (prior to their visit to Kentucky) resulting in a telling neutral court loss to Texas Tech. The defense has been dominant (the team is 7th in fg% defense and 50th in 3pt.% defense), although obviously their opponents have all been shooting on the road. Guard play is still a question mark; Darius Perry and Lamarr Kimble have been efficient against weaker opponents, but they struggled versus Texas Tech’s pressure, and Samuel Williamson looks to be a year away from living up to his five star status. Ryan McMahon will continue to see lots of playing time as the team’s best perimeter shooter and a necessary secondary ballhandler, but again he has obvious limitations and can be overwhelmed by longer and more athletic opponents. Mack has yet to use Enoch and Williams together to maximize playing time for his best players, but it remains an option; Williams definitely moves well enough to defend smaller fours, and the ability of both to shoot from the perimeter means that a lineup including them, along with offensively efficient senior Dwayne Sutton capably defending shooting guards, would have NBA size, dangerous shooters, and dominant rebounders at four positions. There are still ways for Louisville to improve before March, and their ceiling may not be determined just yet.
January 18 Injury Update: David Johnson is gradually taking over at point guard after returning from an offseason shoulder injury, and he is providing the Cardinals with exactly what they've been missing at both ends of the court; offensively, he's an excellent passer that can attack off the dribble and finish at the rim, and defensively his length and athleticism fit in perfectly with a dominant front line. With Ryan McMahon maximizing his efforts at both ends of the court as a senior and Lamar Kimble proving surprisingly efficient off the bench, Louisville suddenly has a competitive backcourt that gives them a chance for a deep run in March.
February 27 Pre-Tournament Update: David Johnson’s move to the starting lineup has given the Cardinals their best chance to win, but the freshman has understandably struggled with turnovers and personal fouls at times. Who he should play with is still up in the air; Lamar Kimble is the best bet as a stabilizing complement, while Ryan McMahon makes everything easier offensively by spacing the floor. The best defensive backcourt would likely match Johnson with Darius Perry, and that is a pairing that hasn’t been explored to this point. The Cardinals feature one of the best defenses in the country (18th in fg% defense, 38th in 3pt% defense, and 21st in rebounding margin), and their offense has been reasonably efficient all season, which is enough to make them a formidable matchup for anyone, but backcourt play will ultimately determine Louisville’s ceiling, and it is noticeably higher with Johnson’s emergence.
2018-2019: 35-3, 16-2 in the ACC (tie for 1st); National Champions
Preseason Projection: 3rd in the ACC; NCAA Round of 32
Final Regular Season Record: 23-7, 15-5 in the ACC (tie for 2nd)
Departures: De’Andre Hunter (15.2 ppg., 5.1 rpg., 43.8% 3pt.), Ty Jerome (13.6 ppg., 4.2 rpg., 5.5 apg., 39.9% 3pt.) were 1st Round NBA draft picks and Kyle Guy (15.4 ppg., 4.5 rpg., 42.6% 3pt.) was taken in the 2nd Round; Jack Salt graduated
Last season, Virginia utilized one of the most suffocating defenses (5th in fg% defense, 4th in 3pt.% defense) as well as one of the most efficient offenses (39th in fg%, 7th in 3pt.%, and 5th in assist to turnover ratio) in college basketball on their way to more than making up for their first round upset two years ago. Unfortunately, the Cavaliers were quick to learn that there are usually roster consequences for winning a National Championship, and Tony Bennett will now be left to defend a title without the 3 players that scored 83.6% of Virginia’s points in the Final Four.
With Jerome and Guy gone, Kihei Clark will be the only player with traditional point guard skills on the roster. Clark was a revelation as a freshman, providing a steady hand to direct the offense and pressuring ball handlers before teams had a chance to get into their offense. Offensively, Clark is more of a functional point guard than a playmaker; while he can hit an open 3 (37.8% 3pt. once his wrist brace was removed) and occasionally slip into the paint, he isn’t going to beat people off the dribble often or create his own shot. Without Jerome, Guy, and Hunter, other players will need to step up to make things happen. Freshman Casey Morsell, a top 50 recruit, may be forced to serve as the backup point guard by default, even though he is definitively a shooting guard. Although he's 6-3 and has limited athletic ability, Morsell can create his own shot and doesn’t look to pass often. While he could struggle when forced to run the offense, he will at least be a solid fit for the Cavaliers defensively. Two more inexperienced wings will compete with Morsell to start with Clark. 6-5 Junior College All American Tomas Woldetensae could be an important player due to his ability to create space and get off his own midrange and perimeter jump shot. Along with Morsell, he may be the best bet to make something happen on his own as the shot clock winds down (and with Virginia, that is a common occurrence) the way that Jerome, Hunter, and Guy did last season. Kody Stattmann will be better prepared to contribute after being a noticeably lean freshman; at 6-7, he should contribute through perimeter shooting and passing by the time he graduates.
While the backcourt has become very young, Mamadi Diakite’s decision to return leaves Bennett with a long and athletic veteran frontcourt. Jay Huff could become the most visible member of the team as a high flying, 3 point shooting, post scoring, smooth passing, shot blocking, 7-1 junior center. Unfortunately, he isn’t a perfect fit for Bennett’s defense; his lateral movement is poor and he has difficulty changing direction, so he can get behind people cutting to the basket, although he can partially make up for it with his shot blocking ability. Stamina may be an issue as well, but his offensive capabilities should become very important for a Virginia team attempting to remain efficient at the offensive end. Diakite, the breakthrough player of last year’s NCAA Tournament run, will be particularly important for Huff because of how much ground he is able to cover defensively. After flashing potential throughout his first three seasons, Diakite finally put everything together in the Tournament, averaging 10.5 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 2.7 blocks per game. He’s a fun player to watch score in the post and he should benefit from playing in space, while his shot blocking and out of area rebounding should make him a candidate for the ACC all defensive team as a senior. 6-8 senior Braxton Key will complete the loaded starting frontcourt. Key made an impact on the Championship game with 10 rebounds, but he has much more to offer offensively and will get more opportunities to show his perimeter skills in the wake of last year’s big 3. Bennett will have young frontcourt depth as well. A second 7 footer, redshirt freshman Francisco Caffaro, should be ready to contribute in the post after a medical redshirt. He offers a sturdier build than Huff, and he’s an imposing post scoring threat.
Tony Bennett has had three or more players with point guard skills for years, but he will now be left with just one, and the newcomers cannot possibly be expected to shoot as well as Guy, Jerome, and Hunter; offensive efficiency is going to drop, (of course, I thought the exact same thing last year after Devon Hall’s graduation and UVA won a National Title, but this is a much bigger change) although with skilled big men and almost everyone able to stretch the floor to some degree the drop may not be precipitous. Defensively, Bennett’s pack line could have occasional lapses early on with so many new faces, but should eventually return to what is now traditional dominance. Another significant Tournament run will be difficult unless a newcomer or two thrive late in the shot clock, but Virginia should again be among the premiere teams in the ACC and provide a tough matchup in March.
December 2 Injury Update: Braxton Key’s wrist injury is a very big deal for Virginia, particularly because of how dependent the team has been on their four returning rotation players (Clark, Key, Diakite, and Huff) at the offensive end. The group has accounted for 77.2% of the team’s points, while the supporting cast of Stattmann, Morsell, Woldentensae, and now backup point guard Casey Coleman have started the season ice cold, hitting just 8 of 63 three point attempts (12.7%) as a group. Offensive efficiency is way, way down as a result, to the point that the Cavaliers are currently one of the worst offensive teams in the country- through seven games, UVA is 296th in overall field goal percentage, 342nd in 3pt. percentage, and 267th in assist to turnover ratio. The newcomers have fit in well defensively and the team is undefeated because they have college basketball’s best defense, but the Cavaliers aren’t going to hold ACC opponents that have experience with their defense to 26 points (even Syracuse is better than the 34 points they put up in the opener since moving to Joe Girard at point guard). Rebounding will take a hit Key’s absence as well, as he was leading the team with 8.3 boards per game. The newcomers almost have to shoot better, but Virginia will be particularly vulnerable to start conference play while they wait for Key’s return.
December 31 Pre-conference Update: Braxton Key’s quick return from a wrist injury, even with a brace, has been a huge boost for the Cavaliers, and Tomas Woldentensae (8 of his last 15) and Kody Stattmann (4 of his last 11) are at least starting to find the range behind the arc. Unfortunately, the team’s over reliance on Kihei Clark to facilitate the offense and to make something happen at the end of the shot clock is a major issue that could limit their eventual success. Again, Clark isn’t explosive enough to consistently make something happen by himself, and athletic defenses are beginning to focus on him and force turnovers as a result (he turned the ball over a total of 13 times in games against Stony Brook and South Carolina); he needs help. Mamadi Diakite (13.8 ppg., 6.5 rpg., 44.0% 3pt.) is the Cavalier’s best individual scorer (if Casey Morsell can become confident in his shot again, he would be second), while Key and Huff could do more as supplemental facilitators from the paint or the high post. Clark is further slowed down by the fact that he is being asked to play almost every minute, and freshman Chase Coleman is the only potential answer for that. Coleman is actually quicker than Clark, but he isn’t playing with enough confidence to make good things happen. UVA does still have the potential for a Sweet 16 run, but the offense will have to continue to diversify as the season moves along.
February 26 Pre-Tournament Update: UVA’s defense is as good as it has ever been (2nd in fg% defense, 18th in 3pt.% defense), and the Cavaliers have found enough offense, and more than enough clutch offense, to win eight out of their last nine. Four of their seven rotation players (Diakite, Clark, Huff, and Woldentensae) are now shooting respectable percentages from beyond the arc, with Woldentensae becoming so much of a threat that defenses have become preoccupied with him. Woldentensae and Key have been used to reduce pressure on Clark, who has begun to look for his own shot more often and has become an efficient scoring threat. Even Casey Morsell, who has struggled with his shot more than anyone, has begun to display a competent stroke, shooting 40.7% overall and 38.5% from 3 over the last five games. That is particularly important for the Cavaliers to be dangerous in the postseason, as Morsell is the player most capable of creating his own scoring opportunities off the dribble. While the offense will continue to be vulnerable to elite defenses that focus on creating turnovers, Virginia now gives the ACC a fourth team capable of reaching the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
2018-2019: 14-18, 6-12 in the ACC (10th)
Preseason Projection: 7th in the ACC; postseason ban
Final Record: 17-14, 11-9 in the ACC (5th)
Departures: Brandon Alston (7.0 ppg., 38.9% 3pt.) and Abdoulaye Gueye (6.6 ppg., 3.7 rpg.) graduated; Curtis Haywood II (5.6 ppg.) transferred to Tulsa; Kristian Sjolund is taking a redshirt year
Georgia Tech emerged as an elite defensive team (20th in fg% defense, 12th in 3pt.% defense) in Josh Pastner’s third season with the program, but they were unable to take advantage of it as they continued to struggle mightily at the offensive end of the floor (331st in 3pt.%, 249th in assist to turnover ratio). There will be room for optimism in year four as a roster that was largely made up of freshmen and sophomores develops and matures, although a one year postseason ban from the NCAA Tournament due to rules violations by boosters creates a very clear ceiling for the Yellow Jackets.
Last season’s offensive struggles were particularly frustrating for point guard Jose Alvarado, who actually seemed to regress as a sophomore without Josh Okogie serving as a true first option. He did show signs of life down the stretch during a five game run in which he averaged 19.8 points on 42.9% 3pt. shooting to go along with 4.6 rebounds and 4 assists per game. Alvarado is a tough player that should build on that success, particularly with teammates that will be more of a threat. Despite the team’s failures, Michael Devoe (9.7 ppg., 39.3% 3pt.) put forth a strong showing and lived up to his top 50 recruiting ranking as a freshman, shooting the ball well from the perimeter from the beginning and forming a strong defensive duo with Alvarado at the top of Georgia Tech’s defense. To that already promising backcourt the Yellow Jackets add Bubba Parham, who received a waiver to play immediately after transferring from VMI. Parham is simply an outstanding scorer that averaged 21.4 points a game and shot 39.7% from behind the arc as a sophomore, including a game in which he hit 10 threes against Kentucky. At 5-11, he hasn't pressured the ball much to this point and may not be a great addition to the defense, but he will definitely help the team with its shooting woes. With that newly formed trio, the Yellow Jackets should suddenly boast one of the most productive backcourt rotations in the ACC.
Post defense was set to potentially become a problem for the Yellow Jackets as well following the graduation of Ben Lammers, but a surprising waiver granting James Banks immediate eligibility as a transfer from Texas changed everything. Banks (10.5 ppg., 7.7 rpg., 2.5 bpg.) was outstanding defending the post and rebounding the basketball at both ends of the floor on his way to making the ACC All-Defensive team. He should provide a more consistent post scoring threat as the paint becomes less crowded and contend for an all-conference team as a senior. Moses Wright didn’t post gaudy numbers by his side, but his length and athleticism at 6-9 made him an important factor in the team’s defensive success all season. He finally seemed to put things together at both ends of the floor to close out the year, averaging 15.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks over the last 5 games. Offense should come more easily to him with increased spacing, although the new line must seem like a cruel joke with regards to his perimeter shooting. Khalid Moore was an important contributor defensely as well, and he should become more assertive offensively as a sophomore. Kristian Sjolund received limited playing time through most of the season, but he showed his potential to put points on the board in a late 4 game stretch in which he averaged 9.8 points on 41.7% 3pt. shooting. Sjolund needed to add more strength to his 6-7 frame to be able to contribute to what the Yellow Jackets do defensively; he should be more helpful at that end as a sophomore. His presence as a perimeter threat would make things significantly easier for Alvarado and Devoe offensively. Jordan Usher, a 6-7, 225 pound former top 100 recruit that actually did sit out last season as a transfer from USC, will provide even more athletic length defensively.
Player development has been a strength for Georgia Tech under Pastner, but the early departure of Okogie proved too much to overcome offensively for a young team. This has the potential to be a huge year for the program, with multiple players on the verge of significant breakthroughs, particularly at the offensive end, and Parham promising to be immediately productive. The defense will continue to suffocate opponents as young players mature physically, while rebounding, which was a problem a year ago (282nd in rebounding margin), should improve at both ends of the floor. With so much of the conference ready to take a step back, the Yellow Jackets are in position to take a big step forward; without the post season ban, they would have had a very real chance of reaching the NCAA Tournament, but now they will be forced to wait until next year and think about what might have been.
December 26 Pre-conference Update: Even with a star turn from sophomore Michael Devoe (17.8 ppg., 3.8 rpg., 3 apg., 41.1% 3pt.), the Yellow Jackets have shown almost no improvement at the offensive end of the floor (196th in fg%, 339th in 3pt.%, and 329th in assist to turnover ratio), and their games have for the most part been very difficult to watch. The return of Jose Alvarado, who posted a three to one assist to turnover ratio in the team’s first two games prior to suffering an ankle injury, should help with efficiency to a certain degree, but he picked up exactly where he left off last season with regards to shooting the basketball. Bubba Parham has fell in line with everyone else by shooting poorly, and he’s looked horribly uncomfortable and seemingly lost all of his confidence in doing so. The decision to redshirt promising stretch forward Kristian Sjolund didn’t help, and it now appears he will be leaving the program. At the same time, the defense hasn’t been quite as stifling as it was last season (39rd in fg% defense and 70th in 3pt.% defense), although that has picked up with the return of Alvarado and the addition of Jordan Usher. Moses Wright has excelled in space, and he and James Banks will be overwhelming in the post for several ACC teams, so the Yellow Jackets should still manage a respectable showing in conference play. Still, while Virginia showed that defense can win championships a year ago, you have to be able to do something at the offensive end, and if Josh Pastnor can’t figure out how to organize a somewhat cohesive attack then it could be time to talk about his job status before long.
February 29 Pre-Tournament/End of Year Update: While the offense has continued to be inefficient overall, the Yellow Jackets have been able to score enough points for a strong end of season run thanks to a strong bounce back performance by Jose Alvarado (14.0 ppg., 4.2 apg., 2.0 spg.) to go along with star turns from possible future pros Michael Devoe (16.0 ppg., 3.9 rpg., 3.6 apg, 42% 3pt.) and Major Wright (13.5 ppg., 7.1 rpg., 1.2 bpg.). Alvarado’s pressure on the ball and Usher’s energy have helped the defense return to its stifling form from a year ago as well. Ultimately, this is all for naught, however, thanks to a painfully slow start that made the postseason ban irrelevant. If everyone returns, this could be an interesting team a year from now, but it’s possible Devoe and Wright will leave, and the graduation of Banks will hurt the team defensively either way. If that duo does decide to leave, it may soon be time for the school to move on from Pastnor, and next season will not be pretty.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2018-2019: 14-19, 3-15 in the ACC (tie for 14th)
Preseason Projection: 5th in the ACC; NCAA Round of 32
Final Regular Season Record: 19-12, 10-10 in the ACC (tie for 6th)
Departures: D.J. Harvey (10.7 ppg., 4.2 rpg., 0.7 apg., 1.5 tpg., 29.9% 3pt.%) transferred to Vanderbilt; Robby Carmody will be a medical redshirt after an early season knee injury
What looked to be a rebuilding year with a young (but talented) roster turned into a disappointing tie for last place in the ACC for the Irish following the early season loss of senior Rex Pflueger, who was leading the team in assists, steals, and 3 point shooting percentage at the time. The team now stands to reap the benefits of last year’s adversity, with Pflueger returning on a medical redshirt and last year’s freshmen having received more playing time than they would have otherwise.
Freshmen rarely receive extensive minutes at Notre Dame until they’ve had time to grasp Mike Brey’s offensive system, but that wasn’t an option a year ago and the offense suffered mightily as a result; while the Irish are routinely one of the most efficient offenses in the country, they finished last season 344th in overall field goal percentage and 312th in 3 point percentage (although they still took care of the basketball, finishing 18th in assist to turnover ratio). Without other veterans able to ease the offensive load, TJ Gibbs struggled with his shooting all season (34.7% fg., 31.8% 3pt.), although he did still manage a nearly 3 to 1 assist to turnover ratio. If the sophomores have learned how and when to get their shots and keep the ball moving, he should at least return to his sophomore form (15.3 ppg., 40.3% 3pt.%) as a senior, and he could even ascend to an all-conference team with his ability to attack the basket and take advantage of the additional floor spacing. Prentiss Hubb was forced into Pflueger’s role as a facilitator following his injury, and, while he managed to take care of the basketball as well (4.0 apg. to 1.9 tpg.), he may have suffered the most from the premature youth movement, shooting just 32.4% overall and 26.2% beyond the arc. Hubb, a top 90 recruit a year ago who needed to add weight and was coming off his own knee injury as a high school senior, should benefit more than anyone from the year of experience as well as improved execution and ball movement. Dane Goodwin, another top 90 recruit with a reputation as a strong outside shooter, rarely looked to score despite playing nearly 25 minutes a game, while a third, Robby Carmody, saw his freshman year end early with a shoulder injury. Both should be ready to do more. If Pflueger (8.1 ppg., 4.7 rpg., 4.3 apg., 1.7 spg., 38.9% 3pt. prior to his injury) is reasonably well recovered from his knee injury, he will simplify things for everyone at both ends of the floor; he’s always been outstanding defensively, he was the team’s second leading rebounder prior to his injury (Notre Dame finished 277th in rebounding margin), and offensively he’s unselfish and a strong passer that is also capable of hitting open 3’s.
The most obvious bright spot for last season’s Irish was 6-9 forward John Mooney (14.1 ppg., 11.2 rpg., 37.4% 3pt.), who emerged as a slightly more agile and active version of North Carolina’s Luke Maye and was named third team All-ACC. In addition to his ability to score inside and out and gather out of area rebounds, he competes defensively and moves his feet well enough to be able to defend most stretch fours. Mooney’s scoring opportunities in the paint, where he enjoys a significant size advantage over most college fours at this point, will increase with more floor spacing provided by the new 3 point line, and he should be in line for first team All-ACC honors as a senior. Although he missed several games with a lingering ankle injury and wasn’t quite the same upon returning, 6-11 junior Juwan Durham ( 3.9 rpg., 2.3 bpg. in 15.3 mpg.) made a huge impact defensively and on the boards when he was on the court. While he doesn’t offer much offensively, his rim protection at center becomes even more important with a more open lane. Finally, Nate Laszewski showed flashes of the shooting stroke that made him the most highly regarded of the freshman a year ago, but with just 200 pounds on a 6-10 frame he provided little help defensively and on the boards. He should make more of an impact as he gets stronger.
Despite their offensive struggles, the Irish managed a thoroughly respectable, and above average for the program, showing at the defensive end (124th in overall fg% defense, 104th in 3pt% defense) even without the services of Pflueger, who has been the team’s best defensive player for most of his career. With his return, the physical maturation of last year’s freshmen, and the possibility of a healthy Durham, Notre Dame could actually be above average defensively and at least be able to compete on the boards. More importantly, offensive efficiency, and shooting percentages in particular, should be ready to skyrocket to the levels of Mike Brey’s better Irish teams (who finished, on average, 42nd in fg.% and 36th in 3pt.% from 2014-2017) with the return of Pflueger and the rising sophomores (all of whom are better shooters than they have shown) as well as the departure of the team’s least efficient offensive player. Freshmen on scholarship will not be taking any shots for this Irish team because it doesn’t have any. The improvement should be night and day for Notre Dame, who could compete at the top of a diluted ACC for the first time in three years and be a threat for multiple wins in March.
December 26 Pre-conference Update: The Irish let an opportunity for a big win slip through their fingers at home against Indiana, and to this point have only shown modest improvement over where they were a year ago. The defense has been solid, with the team currently ranked 62nd in field goal percentage defense, but there are actually still reasons to be concerned on offense. Led by Dane Goodwin (12.0 ppg., 42.3% 3pt.), T.J. Gibbs (11.9 ppg., 37.2% 3pt.), and Prentiss Hubb (10.8 ppg., 35.6% 3pt.%), three point shooting has improved as the year has gone on and should be a strength when ACC play begins, while the Irish currently lead the nation in assist to turnover ratio. The issue has been a lack of dribble penetration and scoring in the paint, which currently has the team ranked 272nd in overall field goal percentage. To make matters worse, the season ending injury to Robbie Carmody once again leaves Mike Brey in a precarious position with a seven man rotation; the team is again one injury away from being forced to give Nikola Djogo major minutes, which hasn’t worked out well when it has happened each of the last two years. Notre Dame still has the makings of a possible NCAA Tournament team, but they will have to avoid another major injury and be more aggressive going towards the basketball or they will find themselves back in the NIT.
February 26 Pre-Tournament/End of Year Update: Technically, Notre Dame could still receive an at large bid if they win their last three regular season games (including a home game against Florida St.) and two games in the ACC Tournament (including an additional game against the conference’s top teams). That isn’t going to happen, but theoretically it could. This has been a horribly disappointing season for the Irish; they have lost six games by three or fewer points, with their lack of depth likely a factor in every one. Notre Dame has committed fewer fouls than any team in the country, which seems like a great thing on paper, but ultimately means they haven’t being very aggressive defensively or on the boards. With only seven players (which was enough prior to the latest shot clock decrease), Notre Dame hasn’t been able to afford extra aggression. Hopefully the team will make a strong showing in the NIT and end the season on a high note, because recruiting seems to have dried up for some reason and at this point the outlook for next season is grim.
North Carolina State Wolfpack
2018-2019: 24-12, 9-9 in the ACC (tie for 8th); lost to Lipscombe in the NIT Quarterfinals
Preseason Projection: 6th in the ACC; NCAA Round of 32
Final Regular Season Record: 19-12, 10-10 in the ACC (tie for 6th)
Departures: Torin Dorn (14.0 ppg., 7.2 rpg.) and Wyatt Walker (4.5 rpg.) graduated; Blake Harris (42.1% 3pt.) transferred to North Carolina A&T
While NC State posted respectable offensive and defensive efficiency numbers that resulted in a final ranking of 36th in the NCAA’s new NET evaluation tool, a 1-8 record versus the ACC’s first division of NCAA Tournament teams relegated them to the NIT last season. With most of their roster returning plus a couple of promising additions, Kevin Keatts will attempt to add a few more big wins and return the Wolfpack to the NCAA Tournament.
Markell Johnson flashed star potential throughout his junior year, adding a confident and accurate three point shot that he can often get away while closely guarded to his already outstanding ability to pass the basketball, attack off the dribble, and defend. Unfortunately, he was among the players that struggled against the conference’s first division, posting just 10 points and 3.8 assists per game while shooting 23.8% behind the arc in the 8 games he played against those opponents versus 15 points, 4.8 assists, and 48.7% 3pt. shooting in the other 22 games he was healthy for. If he finds his confidence and aggression versus the ACC’s elite, he will make an All-ACC team and make a strong case to be drafted as a senior. His backcourt mate, junior Braxton Beverly, could do more to help Johnson given the opportunity. Beverly (9.4 ppg., 34.7% 3pt.) is an outstanding passer in his own right, but he served primarily as a spot up shooter as a sophomore. C.J. Bryce (11.6 ppg., 4.6 rpg.) made a strong ACC debut for the Wolfpack after following Keatts from UNCW, and should be in position take over as the team’s leading scorer as a senior. His efforts on the boards become more important following Dorn’s departure. Utah transfer Devon Daniels (9.3 ppg., 4.4 rpg.) impressed at times as well, although in his desire for more scoring opportunities he often put up questionable shots. His maturation will be particularly important as the Wolfpack strives to become more efficient at the offensive end.
The tendency of Keatt’s Wolfpack to go all out to defend the 3 (they finished 27th in 3pt.% defense but only 198th in overall fg% defense last season) makes redshirt freshman Manny Bates the most important addition to the roster. The defense often leaves big men on an island in the paint, and Bates, who was considered one of the best shot blockers in his class, will give them a significantly better chance to defend that area than Walker did last season. Bates was a top 80 recruit a year ago, but became a medical redshirt due to a shoulder injury; at 6-11, he has managed to bulk up to 221 pounds in the meantime, and he will also be crucial to the Wolfpack’s efforts to compete on the boards. D.J. Funderburk (8.8 ppg., 4.2 rpg.) may actually be the starter at center after showing an ability to make good things happen in the paint; he has potential to put up points both inside and on the perimeter, and he has the length and athletic ability to help protect the rim as well. Unfortunately, with just 210 pounds on a 6-10 frame, he can struggle to carve out space, and he is limited as a rebounder. If Bates is ready to play significant minutes, Funderburk would be able to spend time at his natural position as a power forward and give the Wolfpack above average size on occasion. Keatts also brought in 6-8 graduate transfer Pat Andree (12.9 ppg., 6.2 rpg., 41.9% 3pt. at Lehigh) to provide perimeter shooting at power forward. While he’s an excellent catch and shoot scorer, his playing time may ultimately be decided by his ability to defend and rebound. He did lead his team in rebounding a year ago, but will find things much tougher in the paint in the ACC. Athletic 6-7 sophomore Jericole Hellems should see time in the frontcourt as well; he flashed the potential to eventually be a difference maker at both ends of the floor as a freshman, scoring in double digits 6 times. As his shooting improves and he continues to get stronger, he should emerge as a starter by the time he graduates.
With a maturing roster and improved shooting from the power forward position, NC State should become even more efficient at the offensive end after finishing 89th in field goal percentage, 132nd in 3pt. percentage, and 80th in assist to turnover ratio a year ago. The athletic roster will benefit from increased spacing, and Bates will provide Keatts with the best rim protection he has had, although selling out to defend the 3pt. line will now leave the paint more open to offensive rebounding. NC State was close enough to be disappointed when their name wasn’t called on Selection Sunday a year ago; now, with what can now be considered a veteran roster, Keatts should take the Wolfpack back to the NCAA Tournament, where their talented perimeter will make them a threat for a win or two in March.
December 21 Pre-conference Update: The Wolfpack gave themselves a limited number of chances for quality wins in their non-conference schedule, and close losses to Memphis and Auburn, the only likely NCAA Tournament teams they’ve played to this point, mean that they will need to finish over .500 in the ACC and beat multiple tournament bound teams in order to avoid the same outcome as last season. More concerning is that, despite playing a relatively weak non-conference schedule, the defense has fallen apart. The team has excelled at defending the three point line under Kevin Keatts, but they’re suddenly terrible at it (297th in 3pt% defense, down from 27th last season), which must in some way be related to the new line. Rebounding has taken a major hit as well, dropping from 47th to 245th in rebounding margin despite playing with more size than last season. Quite simply, NC State hasn’t competed as hard in their half court defense as they did a year ago. There is certainly reason for optimism: Manny Bates has been as advertised providing energy and much needed rim protection (3.3 bpg.), while Jericole Hellems (10.5 ppg., 35.3% 3pt.) has taken a major step forward offensively as a sophomore. This team has no problem scoring and three point shooting is way up from a year ago (currently 45th in 3pt.%, up from 132nd a year ago), and they can still pressure the basketball effectively (52nd in steals), which will be a major help against the many ACC teams struggling with turnovers (which includes Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida State), but they will have to show at least modest improvement defensively and of the boards. Unless they can pull some upsets, this could turn into another NIT season for the Wolfpack.
February 20 Post-upset Update/Bubble Watch: NC State's huge victory over Duke puts them squarely on the bubble, although their work is far from done; they likely need to win five more games (including the ACC Tournament) to be safe, but that suddenly seems like a very real possibility. Particularly encouraging was the play of Markell Johnson, who had been struggling mightily beyond the arc (25.6% entering the game) despite being the team's best returning shooter and taking the most 3 pointers on the team this season. If he can shoot as well down the stretch as he did as a sophomore and junior and Pat Andree can finally return from an ankle injury, then the Wolfpack can finally start to improve on what had been horrendous three point shooting (NC State was 265th in 3pt shooting prior to this game), which is tremendously important considering the emphasis on perimeter shooting in Keatts' offense. Perhaps even more importantly, the Wolfpack beat the Blue Devils on the boards and have been 3-1 since Keatts decided to maximize minutes from Funderburk and Bates by allowing them to play together to help combat the team's problems with defense (178th in fg% defense prior to the streak) and rebounding (229th prior to the streak). Unfortunately, the pair is foul prone and Keatts has been forced to steal minutes in the post with Danny Dixon at times; Andree's return could help there as well, as he is roughly as effective as Dixon defensively and on the boards (which isn't saying much) and, again, he can be helpful on the offensive end. Andree's minutes will need to be limited to emergency situations in the post once he returns, but a more helpful eighth man should be welcome. While the Wolfpack can't repeat what happened against Boston College, there is finally legitimate reason to believe there might be a less embarrassing, albeit still depressing, five ACC teams in the NCAA Tournament.
March 3 Bubble Update: The Wolfpack didn't really have the game against North Carolina to lose; they will need to win their next three games, including an ACC Tournament quarterfinal, just to stay in the conversation for the NCAA Tournament. Any loss before that would seal up an NIT bid.
2018-2019: 20-14, 10-8 in the ACC (tie for 6th); lost to Baylor in NCAA Round of 64
Preseason Projection: 10th in the ACC; NIT
Final Regular Season Record: 17-14, 10-10 in the ACC (tie for 6th)
Departures: Tyus Battle (17.2 ppg.) and Oshae Brissett (12.4 ppg., 7.5 rpg.) entered the NBA Draft; Frank Howard (8.9 ppg., 1.5 spg.) and Paschal Chukwu (5.4 rpg., 1.7 bpg.) graduated; Jalen Carey will be a medical redshirt with a thumb injury and Robert Braswell will be a medical redshirt with leg injuries
Syracuse was again able to reach the NCAA Tournament last season, but their overall record and first round defeat was somewhat of a disappointment considering the team’s Sweet 16 appearance the year before, the return of almost every major contributor, and the addition of some notable perimeter firepower. Following the season, the graduation of Frank Howard and Paschal Chukwu and the expected loss of Tyus Battle to the NBA Draft was compounded by Oshae Brissett’s early entrance, and as a result Jim Boeheim will be left with several major holes to fill and mostly freshmen and sophomores to turn to.
With the departure of Battle and Howard, the heir apparent at point guard will be sophomore Jalen Carey, a top 40 recruit a year ago that struggled mightily as a freshman and eventually fell out of the rotation entirely. Carey proved horribly inefficient offensively with regards to both shooting (39.2% fg., 17.4% 3pt.) and passing (41 turnovers and just 25 assists). His size and athleticism would be perfect for Boeheim’s zone, but those that are reminded of Howard’s freshman year should remember that Howard at least managed a 2 to 1 assist to turnover ratio that season. Carey still has potential, but he has a lot further to go. Another option at point guard will be redshirt sophomore Howard Washington, who saw his freshman year cut short with a knee injury and missed last season after suffering a stroke. He has been cleared to play, and while he doesn’t have Carey’s physical gifts he would at least provide a more efficient ballhandler and distributor. Boeheim also added 3 star guard Joseph Girard, a prolific perimeter scorer in high school that handles the ball well but isn’t a great passer. Syracuse didn’t generate much offense through passing a year ago (233rd in assist to turnover ratio), and if that isn’t a priority then Girard could be an option, although at 6-1 with limited athletic ability he doesn’t fit what the team does defensively either. Whoever winds up at point guard will be surrounded by perimeter weapons that will not have trouble with the new 3 point line. Buddy Boeheim’s freshman year got off to a slow start, but once he found his footing he averaged 9.1 points per game, including 9 double digit scoring games, on 41.1% shooting from 3 over the teams last 19 games. He will see substantially more opportunities as a sophomore. Brycen Goodine, a 6-4 top 100 recruit, will see time at shooting guard as well; while he may need to add strength to his frame, he should eventually disrupt passing lanes, provide 3 point shooting, and help facilitate the offense. The biggest addition to last year’s team was Elijah Hughes, a 6-6 former East Carolina transfer that should emerge as the team’s leading scorer. Hughes (13.7 ppg., 4.3 rpg., 36.9% 3pt.) can create his own shot and hit contested threes, both of which will be very necessary considering the point guard situation. Robert Braswell, a four star recruit a year ago, may be ready to contribute as well; he was in major need of adding strength to what was a 6-9, 175 pound frame, but when he’s strong enough he’s a high flyer that will also be dangerous from the new 3 point line.
Marek Dolezaj has emerged as a fan favorite at Syracuse over the past two years. At 6-10, he hustles, passes well, and can hit open 3’s (37.9% 3pt.). Unfortunately, he doesn’t seem to be able to hold more than 180 pounds on his almost birdlike frame, and he can pushed off the block by big guards. Despite that, Dolezaj has been shoehorned in at center fairly often. Rebounding is a common issue with a zone, and Syracuse struggled with Brissett and Chukwu in the fold (274th in rebounding margin); if that is going to change, someone that can actually hold their position in the paint will need to emerge at center so that Dolezaj can move to his more natural position at forward. 6-10 junior Bourama Sidibi will be one option, although he has Chukwu’s limitations without providing quite as much of a shot blocking threat. 6-11, 4 star Dutch freshman freshman Jesse Edwards may be the best hope; he needs to get stronger, but he already weighs more than Sidibe and has the face up offensive skills of a European big man. If he can learn his defensive responsibilities, he would represent a substantial improvement offensively and possibly on the boards, and his passing out of the post would help take advantage of the new line. Another X factor will be Quincy Guerrier, a 6-7 top 70 forward that could provide another 3 point threat and attack the rim on occasion. Guerrier is of particular interest because of his potential as a rebounder.
Syracuse was not a good offensive basketball team a year ago (280th in fg%, 233rd in 3pt.%), and their youth movement and uncertainty at point guard won’t help. However, they do suddenly have a lot of people that, in theory, can shoot the 3; if some of those players can attack the basket as well, they may be able to take advantage of the new line. Unfortunately, without the offensive rebounding of Chukwu and Brissett second chance opportunities are going to be harder to come by. At the other end of the floor, the new line is bad news for the normally suffocating Syracuse zone (the Orange were 21st in fg% defense last year)- at least when they’re playing teams that pass and shoot well enough to take advantage of it. Increased spacing will also complicate defensive rebounding out of the zone, which was already an issue. Jim Boeheim is facing a tough challenge with three of his top four players departing and a roster loaded with youth and inexperience, but he does have a lot of potential talent to work with. While an immediate return to the NCAA Tournament seems unlikely, a middle of the pack finish and NIT appearance will be a possibility for the Orange.
December 16 Pre-conference Update: By the numbers, the Orange have performed much better at both ends of the floor than their .500 record would indicate, and their losses have all come at the hands of potential NCAA Tournament teams. The offense has really been saved from potential disaster by moving to Joe Girard (10.3 ppg., 4.4 apg., 34.0% 3pt.) and Howard Washington at point guard, with both being significantly more efficient with the basketball than Jalen Carey and struggling freshman Brycen Goodine. The team shoots well from the perimeter (96th in 3pt.%) with four capable shooters in the starting lineup and Elijah Hughes (19.7 ppg., 4.9 rpg., 4.5 apg., 42.7% 3pt.) and Buddy Boeheim (15.2 ppg., 39.1% 3pt.) lighting it up, and the ball is moving better than it has in years (34th in assist to turnover ratio). However, while the defensive numbers still look impressive overall (45th in fg% defense and 73rd in 3pt.% defense), the team has given up significantly more points over the last five games, and there is every reason to believe that the move to shorter and less athletic players in the backcourt will hurt the effectiveness of the team’s zone (steals are already down to 93rd in the country from 20th a year ago, and conference place hasn’t really started yet). Rebounding is a problem once more, and offensive rebounding has fallen off as expected (down to 232nd from 114th a year ago) without Brissett and Chukwu. While Syracuse may be better than their current record indicates, their struggles against opponents that have their act together offensively and can take advantage on the boards seem likely to continue into ACC play.
March 8 End of Year Update: Thanks to a promising freshman campaign from point guard Joe Girard (12.7 ppg., 3.4 apg.) and significant defensive improvement from Bourama Sidibe (7.4 rpg., 1.4 bpg.), Syracuse was able to avoid a significant dropoff from a year ago. If Elijah Hughes elects to return for his senior year, the Orange may only suffer a one year absence from the NCAA Tournament.
2018-2019: 20-14, 9-9 in the ACC (tie for 8th); lost to Wichita St. in the 2nd Round of the NIT
Preseason Projection: 11th in the ACC
Final Regular Season Record: 15-15, 9-11 in the ACC (9th)
Departures: Marcquise Reed (19.4 ppg., 5.5 rpg., 3.1 apg., 2.1 spg., 35.6% 3pt.), Elijah Thomas (13.0 ppg., 7.8 rpg., 2.2 bpg.), Shelton Mitchell (11.5 ppg.), and David Skara (7.6 ppg., 4.2 rpg., 36.3% 3pt.) graduated; Javan White transferred to UMKC
Last year’s senior laden Tigers team was unable to return to the NCAA Tournament after their 2018 Sweet 16 appearance, and Brad Brownell and company will now face a significant roster overhaul. The arrival of two highly regarded transfers will help, but many of those minutes will go to an untested group of 4 star freshmen and sophomores.
Even with their senior guards, Clemson wasn’t an efficient offensive team (151st in fg%, 255th in 3pt%, and 269th in assist to turnover ratio), and finding an effective backcourt pairing will be Brownell’s most difficult task. Trapp's injury leaves 6-5 sophomore John Newman III as the only experienced guard, and he was mostly invisible during his time on the floor last season. Even though it’s rare for freshmen guards to have major roles for Brownell, Al-Amir Dawes, a top 100 recruit, and Chase Hunter, a four star recruit, will be forced into major minutes as freshmen with Dawes the likely point guard by default. Dawes should receive help with facilitating the offense from Khavon Moore, who received a surprise waiver to play right away after transferring from Texas Tech. Moore has only played two minutes of college basketball to this point due to a broken leg suffered in high school, but he was a top 50 recruit a year ago that brings a great deal of promise and, at 6-8, 215 pounds, size that the Tigers were very much in need of. Curran Scott (8.9 ppg., 39.4% 3pt.), a graduate transfer from Tulsa, will provide an experienced perimeter shooter off the bench.
Graduate transfer Tevin Mack was originally a top 50 recruit at Texas and was their best player as a sophomore (14.8 ppg., 4.8 rpg., 39.1% 3pt.) before off court issues cost him his spot on the team. He then spent last year with an offensively challenged Alabama team before transferring. At 6-6, 225 pounds, Mack will see time at both forward spots, and will likely become the team's leading scorer. The lone returning starter will be Aamir Simms, who served as a moderately successful stretch four last season. Simms (8.1 ppg., 4.6 rpg., 33.1% 3pt.) is now up to 6-8, 245 pounds and will see time at both power forward and center; scoring will be easier for the young offense when he serves as a stretch 5, and defending in the post should get him more actively involved on the boards. Trey Jemison, a four star recruit a year ago, should receive plenty of opportunities as a sophomore as the only other big body available. Jemison played very little as a freshman after a knee injury kept him out to start the year, and when he did play he wasn’t very active and didn’t display much beyond a chiseled 7-0, 255 pound frame. He was considered a high motor rebounder coming out of high school; if he returns to that form, he could allow the Tigers to remain competitive on the boards. Another 4 star sophomore, Hunter Tyson, will round out the frontcourt rotation; he came in with a reputation as a strong outside shooter, but he needed to add weight to his 6-8 frame as a freshman. He should be ready to contribute as a sophomore with 25 extra pounds.
Brad Brownell rarely produces an efficient offense, and that could be even more of a struggle with such a young backcourt, but Mack, Moore, and Simms should form a dynamic frontcourt that will present multiple possibilities at the offensive end. At the other end of the floor, the absence of Elijah Thomas’s rebounding and rim protection and David Skara’s versatility means that defense and rebounding aren’t likely to be the strengths they normally are (the Tigers were 28th in fg% defense and 70th in rebounding margin last season). While Clemson isn’t likely to contend for an NCAA Tournament berth this season, if Dawes and Moore are productive immediately the Tigers may have enough overall talent for a middle of the pack finish in the ACC.
December 17 Pre-conference update: Clemson has struggled slightly more than expected, in part because Khavon Moore isn’t quite ready to be a major contributor. Still, Tevin Mack (12.7 ppg., 4.8 rpg., 38.9% 3pt.) has excelled, although it has actually been Aamir Simms that has emerged as the team’s best player. Simms (12.3 ppg., 8.0 rpg.) has been significantly more confident and aggressive in an expanded role and, while he has plenty of size and strength to compete in the post, his athleticism and perimeter skills make him a nearly impossible matchup for traditional post players. He hasn’t shot well, but in every other way he has been a leader at both ends of the floor. Unfortunately, Trey Jemison has given the team remarkably little off the bench. The young backcourt is very much a work in progress, and Moore hasn’t been able to provide support. The impressively fast recoveries of Clyde Trapp and Jonathan Baehre from offseason knee surgeries might provide some relief, although Trapp had the same efficiency issues as Dawes in extensive minutes as a sophomore, and Trapp hasn’t really been playing basketball for the last six months, while Baehre doesn’t really have the strength or athleticism to provide more than the occasional blocked shot and spot up 3. Clemson’s offense is somewhat inefficient and likely to remain so (242nd in fg%, 191st in assist to turnover ratio) and, while the defense is passable, they struggle on the boards (273rd in rebounding margin) and are completely dependent on Simms to compete in the post. Talent is developing for Brad Brownell and help is on the way, but this will be a tough year for the Tigers.
March 1 Pre-Tournament/End of Year Update: Clemson’s string of high profile wins won’t be enough to put them in the NCAA Tournament, but it does bode well for next season for a young team that should return everyone except Tevin Mack – assuming Aamir Simms (13.3 ppg., 7.2 rpg., 39.5% 3pt.), a likely first or second team All-ACC player, returns for his senior year. Brownell will welcome a pair of highly regarded big men to fill the biggest need from his current roster, and the Tigers should have a chance to claim what should be a healthy number of NCAA Tournament berths for next season’s ACC.
Boston College Eagles
2018-2019: 14-17, 5-13 in the ACC (tie for 11th)
Preseason Projection: 15th in the ACC; postseason coaching change
Final Regular Season Record: 13-18, 7-13 in the ACC (tie for 10th)
Departures: Ky Bowman (19.0 ppg., 7.5 rpg., 4.0 apg., 37.4% 3pt.) entered the NBA Draft; Jordan Chatman (13.2 ppg., 34.8% 3pt.) graduated; Wynston Tabbs (13.9 ppg.) will be a medical redshirt
Jim Christian was kept around in favor of making infrastructure improvements at Boston College despite the fact that the team was able to do no better than reach the first round of the NIT with a backcourt composed of future NBA players and then dropped below .500 for the fourth time in his five year tenure when the first of the pair departed. Now, with the second member of that backcourt headed to the NBA and that loss already compounded by injury, the team will be hard pressed to avoid a return to the bottom of the ACC.
Christian appeared to avoid a Dennis Clifford level of embarrassment with the addition of graduate transfer Derryck Thornton in June; prior to that, who was going to replace Bowman at point guard remained a largely unanswered question. Thornton was originally a five star recruit as an early entrant at Duke, but he struggled at both Duke and USC in the years since. He has at least been respectable at taking care of the basketball, posting 4.3 assists to 2 turnovers a game last season at USC; however, he may still have designs on playing in the NBA and seems to believe he will be approaching things the same way as Bowman despite the fact that he isn’t very good at putting the ball in the basket (he shot 38.2% overall and 28.6% from 3 in an efficient, wide open offense a year ago). Still, Boston College will almost certainly be better with him than without him. Unfortunately, a preseason injury to Wynston Tabbs, who was likely to be the team's best guard, again leaves the backcourt situation murky at best, and could still result in a demoralizing season for the Eagles. Jared Hamilton, who transferred from Georgia Southern to play with his brother, ended up playing significant minutes following the Tabbs injury but provided very little statistically. Chris Herren Jr., a two star recruit a year ago, was forced into action as well, and was understandably unproductive. Both will receive further opportunities by default this year. If the Eagles are going to surprise and be competitive in the ACC, they would likely need a breakout performance from one or more of 3 star perimeter recruits Jay Heath, Julian Rishwain, or Kamari Williams, with the 6-5 Rishwain and the 6-8 Williams most likely to be able to provide the team with much needed perimeter shooting.
While the backcourt is a major issue, BC does have talent (as well as size and athleticism) in its frontcourt. 6-11 senior center Nik Popovic (14.5 ppg., 7.2 rpg.) has emerged as a solid low post scorer that can hold his own on the boards; under different circumstances he would benefit from the new 3 point line, but the team likely won’t shoot well enough for him to take advantage of it. At power forward, junior Steffon Mitchell (7.9 rpg., 1.2 bpg.) can’t score much beyond dunks and layups, but at 6-8 he’s active and even dominant at times as a defender and on the boards. 6-8 sophomore Jairus Hamilton, a top 70 recruit a year ago, had a disappointing freshman year, but should benefit from a year in the weight room has the potential to be a major contributor at both ends of the floor. If Thornton can be convinced to act as a facilitator, he might be the biggest beneficiary. The Eagles bring more size off the bench in 6-10 junior Luka Kraljevic, who has the athletic ability and potential to do more.
BC was only passable offensively with two future NBA guards, and they were just plain bad with one (276th in overall fg%, 303rd in 3pt.%, and 194th in assist to turnover ratio); losing their only two perimeter threats and their most promising replacement while moving the 3 point line back won’t do them any favors, and in their case the court may actually shrink instead of getting larger as a result. Considering they play with more size than most of the ACC, it would seem like the Eagles would at least be able to crash the boards effectively, but even with the best rebounding guard in the country they were just 259th in rebounding margin. The Eagles did at least defend last year (77th in overall fg.% defense, 54th in 3pt.% defense), and Jairus Hamilton does have the potential to do more, but the backcourt situation is so grim that it could very well result in the first 0-20 finish in ACC history. Jim Christian should obviously be concerned; he’s already been granted two more years than Steve Donahue, and Donahue actually made it to the second round of the NIT. In other news, Boston College could begin construction of its Al Skinner statue any day now.
February 28 Pre-Tournament/End of Year Update: This has not been a terrible season for Boston College, and between their respectable showing in conference play and what has been set up for next season Jim Christian seems likely to return for another year. Jay Heath (12.9 ppg., 37.4% 3pt.) had a strong freshman season and looks like a future star, while Jairus Hamilton (9.4 ppg., 4.3 rpg.) and Steffon Mitchell (7.3 ppg., 8.4 rpg., 3.0 apg., 2.3 spg.) both made significant progress. Julian Rishwain is a promising young player as well. Combined with the arrival of the Langford brothers and the return of Wynston Tabbs, there is reason for optimism looking ahead for BC, although they may need to look to the graduate transfer market to find a ready replacement for Nik Popovic in the post.
2018-2019: 14-18, 5-13 in the ACC (tie for 11th)
Preseason Projection: 9th in the ACC; NIT
Final Regular Season Record: 15-15, 7-13 in the ACC (tie for 10th)
Departures: Anthony Lawrence (12.6 ppg., 6.7 rpg., 3.1 apg., 34.7% 3pt.), Ebuka Izundu (10.9 ppg., 8.3 rpg.), and Zach Johnson (11.8 ppg.) graduated; Anthony Mack decided to transfer; Geng Dak will miss another year due to a knee injury
There was reason for optimism at Miami previous to last season, but eligibility issues for Dewan Hernandez and an injury to Deng Gak left the Hurricanes with just seven scholarship players, one of whom wouldn’t have been in the rotation otherwise. With graduation taking three of their top four players, things won’t get significantly easier for Jim Larranaga, although the arrival of a strong recruiting class should at least allow him an adequate rotation.
No one in college basketball should benefit more from the new 3 point line than Chris Lykes. As a lightning quick, undersized point guard with a strong midrange jump shot and a flare for passing in the open floor, Lykes (16.2 ppg., 3.2 apg.) should excel with extra space to create separation and to see around him. It will become even more important for him to make better decisions about taking 3s, but he should be surrounded by players that can help space the floor so that he won't feel a need to force them. Senior Dejan Vasiljevic (11.8 ppg., 4.5 rpg., 36.7% 3pt.) will be one of those players; in addition to his perimeter shooting, he became a tough contributor on the boards as a junior, and that will become even more important this season. Transfer Kameron McGusty, an athletic, 6-5 former top 50 recruit, should help as well; he had a promising freshman year at Oklahoma (10.9 ppg., 35.2% 3pt. in 2017-2017), but was marginalized by Trae Young’s ball dominance as a sophomore. He should at least replace Johnson’s scoring. Harlond Beverly, a 6-4 top 60 recruit, should also be a major contributor. He’s an athletic scorer that can hit the 3, and he could help Lykes as a secondary ballhandler. Another point guard that's quick off the dribble, Isaiah Wong, will serve as Lykes’ backup at point guard. A 6-2 top 80 recruit, Wong was an explosive scorer in high school, although he has a tendency to dribble into trouble like Lykes did as a freshman. Like Lykes, Wong plays hard at both ends of the floor and will have more defensive potential due to his size, although he will need to add strength.
Despite missing the majority of his first two years with a knee injury, Deng Gak will need to take over for Ebuka Izundu in the post. In the eight games he was able to play last season, Gak (4.1 rpg., 1.1 bpg. in 14.6 mpg.) posted per minute rebounding numbers similar to Izundu, and he will be a better shot blocker. Unfortunately, he’s foul prone and was basically starting from scratch offensively. Izundu was also an outstanding offensive rebounder, and that isn’t something Gak brings to the table. Larranaga could have another option at center in Rodney Miller, a 7-0 former top 100 recruit who has had conditioning issues but may finally be ready to contribute as a junior after dropping significant weight during a redshirt year. He would provide the post scoring threat Gak doesn't. Sam Waardenburg was forced into significant minutes by all of the injuries, but he remained passive as a sophomore. Waardenburg (35.2% 3pt.) shoots well and is reasonably mobile at 6-10; if he’s gotten stronger and can become more assertive, he would be a solid stretch 4. The increased spacing could free him to be more aggressive. Graduate transfer Keith Stone was brought in from Florida to help solidify the front line, but he’s coming off of a knee injury of his own. Even if he’s healthy, Stone doesn’t bring much to the table as a rebounder or post scorer and he will have trouble staying in front of small ball 4s, although he will help stretch the floor from either center or power forward (40.5% 3pt.) It would make things easier for Larranaga if Anthony Walker, a 6-9, 210 pound 4 star recruit, is ready to contribute right away. If he’s strong enough, he could help out defensively and on the boards.
With the influx of talented guards and the possibility of a simplified game for Lykes, offensive efficiency should improve for Miami (226th in fg%, 232nd in 3pt%, and 118th in assist to turnover ratio a year ago), who are one of ACC teams likely to be able to take advantage of the new 3 point line. Unfortunately, the team struggled to rebound with Izundu and Lawrence (298th in rebounding margin), and they are going to be in real trouble in that area without them. Also, while Gak will help protect the rim, defending the paint will remain a problem (255th in fg% defense) unless another one of the big men surprises and steps up. Overall, Miami is probably less talented than it was a year ago following the departures of Lawrence, Izundu, and Johnson, but that can be said for the ACC as a whole; while they probably won’t be great, the Hurricanes should be able to do enough things well for a middle of the pack finish in the ACC.
December 14 Pre-conference Update: While the Hurricanes haven’t suffer any surprising upsets in non-conference play, they are clearly in a rebuilding year. The team has talent, but their four best players (McGusty, Lykes, Vasiljevic, and Beverly) are all true guards, and none of their bigs are strong enough defensively or on the boards for them to be able to get away with a four guard lineup (they almost blew a big lead against Illinois by using Sam Waardenburg as the only big down the stretch and playing Isaiah Wong at point guard for an extended period of time). Deng Gak was the team’s best hope to be able to do that, but he was again lost to a knee injury, and, while Anthony Walker will be able to fill that role eventually, he is very much a project at this point. Rodney Miller has helped as a post scorer, but he isn’t mobile or athletic enough to be the only big, and Waardenburg, who is certainly playing better, will never be strong enough to be the only big man on the floor. The offense has been good (22nd in 3pt.% and 79th in assist to turnover ratio), but defense (302nd in fg% defense) and rebounding (335th in rebounding margin) are huge problems. Things will get much easier for Jim Larranaga next year as the freshmen continue to develop and Nysier Brooks becomes eligible, but an NIT appearance should be considered a win for this Miami team.
March 8 End of Year Update: Miami accomplished exactly what they needed to in what did turn out to be a rebuilding year: young players got better. Isaiah Wong improved exponentially as the season went along and, although he eventually hit the wall, Harlond Beverly showed promise as well. Chris Lykes became more efficient, while Kameron McGusty had the best year of his career in his first of two seasons at the school. Up front, Rodney Miller finally became a productive college basketball player, Sam Waardenburg took huge strides defensively and on the boards, and Anthony Walker flashed all kinds of potential as a freshman. With a top 30 small forward and a proven veteran center among those joining the team, Jim Larranaga is set to have a roster loaded with talent for next season.
Virginia Tech Hokies
2018-2019: 26-9, 12-6 in the ACC (5th); lost to Duke in the Sweet 16
Preseason Projection: 12th in the ACC
Final Regular Season Record: 16-15, 7-13 in the ACC (tie for 10th)
Departures: Nickeil Alexander-Walker (16.2 ppg., 4.1 rpg., 4.0 apg., 1.9 spg., 37.4% 3pt.) entered the NBA Draft; Justin Robinson (13.5 ppg., 5.0 apg. 41.8% 3pt.), Ahmed Hill (13.1 ppg., 39.1% 3pt.), and Ty Outlaw (8.6 ppg., 5.2 rpg., 45.4% 3pt.) graduated; Kerry Blackshear (14,9 ppg., 7.5 rpg.) transferred to Florida
After finally taking the Hokies to the Sweet 16, Buzz Williams left Virginia Tech to coach in his home state. The program eventually landed on Wofford coach Mike Young as his replacement, and the challenge of holding the program together without a complete rebuild began. The Hokies were in line for significant roster turnover with or without Williams due to graduation and Alexander-Walker’s inevitable entrance into the NBA Draft, and the fact that Young managed to hold on to all but one other player (granted, a significant one in Kerry Blackshear) has to be considered a victory. The resulting roster will be very young, but not without potential.
Wabissa Bede’s decision to return to Virginia Tech for his senior season was a huge step in allowing Virginia Tech to remain competitive through the transition to their new coach. While he is capable of hitting an open 3 (35.4% 3pt.), Bede hasn’t been particularly aggressive offensively over his first three seasons, and he hasn’t needed to be; what he has done is serve as the team’s best perimeter defender while helping the offense run efficiently with a better than 2 to 1 assist to turnover ratio, both of which will be essential for the suddenly young Hokies. While he may be called upon to score slightly more often, his role should remain consistent under Young. Young managed to land what should eventually be a suitable replacement for Robinson in Jalen Cone, a tough and aggressive top 100 recruit that can score from all over the floor. Cone may actually be faster and more athletic than Robinson, but as an early college entrant that experienced a late growth spurt to reach 6-0 he may be a year away from being able to fully reach that potential. Even if he has some growing pains, he will play a significant role for this Hokies team. 6-4 sophomore Jon Kabongo was in line to play a significant role in the backcourt, but an offseason injury will see him return no earlier than January and could cost him the season. Kabongo's opportunities were limited as a freshman, but when given the chance he showed promise as a confident and aggressive player at both ends of the floor. If he is able to return, it would be a huge boost for the Hokies in ACC play. His absence will mean immediate playing time for some combination of three star freshmen Nahiem Alleyne and Hunter Cattoor and redshirt freshman Tyrece Radford. The most pleasant surprise for Virginia Tech a year ago was Isaiah Wilkins. He added significant weight after arriving on campus, eventually reaching 230 pounds at 6-4, but he carried the weight extremely well and was a bundle of energy when he got on the court. Wilkins (40.7% 3pt.) will see an expanded role as the likely starter at small forward, where he should provide scoring both inside and out as well as an assertive defender with the potential to help on the boards.
After being forced to sit out his freshman year due to eligibility concerns, Landers Nolley should immediately step in as the Hokies’ best player and leading scorer. Nolley was considered one of the better shooters in his class as a top 60 recruit a year ago, and he has gotten significantly stronger since arriving at Virginia Tech. With 230 pounds now on his 6-7 frame, he will need to play the 4 and contribute on the boards for what will be an undersized Virginia Tech team. P.J. Horne will be the most likely candidate to start at center to begin the season after being forced into the post as Blackshear’s backup by size limitations the last two years. At 6-5, 230 pounds, he will be dramatically undersized, but he’s used to it at this point and the Hokies have been able to succeed with him in the role despite the lack of statistical production. The hope will be that John Ojiako, a three star recruit and another early college entrant, will eventually take over. Ojiako is a raw prospect that will offer little at the offensive end, but his long and athletic 6-10, 210 pound frame will offer significantly more rim protection and rebounding potential than Horne. Like Cone, Ojiako is likely to have growing pains, but a thin roster will likely force him into immediate playing time. Young also added 6-8, 205 pound graduate transfer Branden Johnson from Alabama State, but his lack of production in the SWAC indicates that he will offer little more than an emergency center.
Mike Young was an interesting hire for Virginia Tech considering his Wofford teams had not exactly been dominating the Southern Conference, with multiple 3rd and 4th place finishes during the six years prior to last season’s first round victory in the NCAA Tournament. However, what Young has done well is something very similar to Buzz Williams: he has consistently produced one of the most efficient offenses in the country, with efficiency and three point shooting being major emphases (Virginia Tech was 49th in overall fg.%, 8th in 3pt.%, and 25th in assist to turnover ratio, while Wofford was 11th, 2nd, and 16th respectively, and those numbers have been relatively consistent). What Young’s teams have not done well historically is defend, with his last group of Terriers being a drastic exception. Defending the paint and rebounding are going to be a significant problem, but the Hokies’ young core of Cone, Kabongo, Wilkins, and Nolley has the potential to be quite good, and, with a senior point guard serving as a stabilizing force, all four should eventually excel in Young’s offensive system and provide solid perimeter defense. The Hokies will obviously be dealing with a significant size disadvantage in the post, but frankly there are ACC teams with worse problems. While a return to the NCAA Tournament seems highly unlikely and struggling freshmen could just as easily land the team near the bottom of the conference, an NIT appearance is a possibility, and would represent a strong start for the Mike Young era at Virginia Tech.
December 14 Pre-conference Update: Virginia Tech is exceeding any rational expectations that may have existed before the season. The offense may actually flow better than it did under Williams; even with all of the roster turnover, the Hokies feature one of the most efficient attacks in the country, currently ranking 62nd in field goal percentage, 16th behind the arc, and 6th in assist to turnover ratio. With the exception of Jon Ojiako and Tyrese Radford (who may just be tentative instead of incapable), everyone can shoot the 3, with the best story being the development of an accurate, smooth, and bizarrely quick perimeter jumper by senior center PJ Horne (9.6 ppg., 4.6 rpg., 47.2% 3pt.). Even with his reluctance behind the arc, Radford (7.2 ppg., 5.4 rpg., 70.5% fg.%) has emerged as an important player through his efforts on the boards, particularly at the offensive end, and his ability to score inside the arc. With Ojiako being the only real size and still likely a year away from being a major contributor defensively and on the boards, they are going to be abused in the paint at various times during ACC play, but the Hokies use nine players that provide consistent energy at both ends of the floor and will give themselves a chance against anyone when they are hot behind the arc. Considering that a significant portion of the conference is struggling to score, a middle of the pack finish and NIT appearance seems likely, and would represent an excellent showing for Mike Young in his first year with the program. Unfortunately, the team could be hit with an unexpected loss after the season; Landers Nolley (18.6 ppg., 5.5 rpg., 45.2% 3pt.) has proven to be such a smooth scorer with a such a pure stroke that he could play his way into the first round of the NBA Draft. He’s a future NBA wing that should make an all-conference team.
March 1 Pre-Tournament/End of Year Update: The Hokies apparently hit the proverbial wall after their 5-2 start in the ACC, which is perfectly understandable given that six of the team’s nine rotation players were freshmen. Still, Mike Young firmly established that his offensive system will work in the ACC, and his team competed defensively all season. Landers Nolley’s late season slump could end up being a blessing in disguise, as it may help keep him in school for one more season after a strong start made him look like a definite future pro. The Hokies should return everyone from a very young but talented team, and they will welcome some much needed size and a talented recruiting class that will help them compete in the paint and on the boards. Virginia Tech should be very deep a year from now, and a return to the NCAA Tournament should come soon.
North Carolina Tar Heels
2018-2019: 29-7, 16-2 in the ACC (tie for 1st); lost to Auburn in the Sweet 16
Preseason Projection: 1st in the ACC; National Title Game
Final Regular Season Record: 13-18, 6-14 in the ACC (tie for 13th)
Departures: Coby White (16.1 ppg., 4.1 apg., 35.3% 3pt.), Cameron Johnson (16.9 ppg., 5.8 rpg., 45.7% 3pt.), and Nassir Little (9.8 ppg., 4.6 rpg.) were 1st round picks in the NBA Draft; Luke Maye (14.9 ppg.,10.5 rpg.) and Kenny Williams (8.6 ppg., 3.5 apg.) graduated; Seventh Woods transferred to South Carolina; Sterling Manley and Anthony Harris will be medical redshirts with knee injuries
North Carolina concluded last season with their tenth Sweet 16 appearance in Roy Williams’ s 16 year tenure. Now, after losing five major contributors, the Tar Heels will welcome a recruiting class that includes two 5 star prospects for the second year in a row. However, with holes on his roster that his recruiting class wasn’t going to fill, Williams set off on a new adventure of sorts by visiting the graduate transfer market for the first time, eventually landing two of the most highly regarded players available.
The Tar Heels will be replacing one one and done, shoot first point guard with another with the addition of Cole Anthony, a top 5 recruit and projected top 10 pick in next year’s draft. While Anthony lacks White’s length, he possesses excellent speed and athleticism, can score at all three levels, and may actually be a more assertive driver and defender than his predecessor. Like White, passing and avoiding turnovers will be a work in progress. Even though White posted an assist to turnover ratio of less than two to one, UNC always passes extremely well as a team; they finished 13th in the nation in assist to turnover ratio a year ago, with only Nassir Little posting more turnovers than assists. Also like White, Anthony will have plenty of help taking care of the basketball. Among those will be Leaky Black, who stands to be the most improved of North Carolina’s returning players. An ankle injury essentially cut his freshman year short, but he flashed the skill set and athleticism that made him a top 50 recruit while he was healthy. At a lean and athletic 6-7, Black has the versatility to defend anywhere on the perimeter, while offensively his passing ability makes him a legitimate option as Anthony’s backup and his perimeter jump shot and driving ability should make him a double digit scorer. A second freshman, top 70 recruit Anthony Harris, will see time at point guard as well once he returns from December knee surgery. In addition to being a skilled perimeter shooter and passer, he plays with energy and aggression at both ends of the floor. The first of Williams’ graduate transfers, Christian Keeling, will have a chance to start at shooting guard. Keeling (18.7 ppg., 6.9 rpg., 38% 3pt.) was a first team All Big South selection as a junior at Charleston Southern, where he led his team in points, rebounds, assists, and steals. He shoots well from the perimeter, defends, and is an excellent rebounder for his position that will help UNC retain their usual dominance of the boards. 3 and D wing Brandon Robinson should also see a larger role as a senior; he still doesn’t look for his shot often, but when he does he shoots a high percentage (46.3% 3pt.) and he makes good decisions with the basketball.
Junior Garrison Brooks (7.9 ppg., 5.6 rpg.) will again anchor the Tar Heels in the paint. While he doesn’t post huge numbers, he moves his feet well and makes excellent decisions at both ends of the court. Armando Bacot, the second five star recruit, will be the flashier frontcourt player and give the Tar Heels a long and imposing post scorer in the Kennedy Meeks mold, which will be a nice weapon to have with the increased floor spacing. At 6-10, Bacot will also be important to replacing Maye’s rebounding. Brooks may be mobile enough to guard some stretch 4s, so if Williams wants to play with two bigs like he would have four years ago he will be able to do so. With three point percentages likely to decrease and more space around the paint, that becomes a more viable option. Another interesting option to start with Brooks will be graduate transfer Justin Pierce, who will see time at both forward spots but will serve as the team’s only real option as a stretch 4. Pierce is a solid outside shooter, although his percentages fell off as a junior when he played with a lingering wrist injury and was forced to serve as the team’s primary facilitator, something he won’t be asked to do at UNC. At 6-7, 225 pounds, Pierce will be roughly the average size for a stretch 4 in the ACC with most of the conference playing small. He won’t put up huge scoring numbers, but he’ll hit open 3s (41.6% as a sophomore), find the open man (4.1 apg. last season), and attack the boards (8.9 rpg.); he’s a perfect fit for what the Tar Heels do. 6-11 junior Sterling Manley has the potential to provide Williams with another imposing big man, but he has been slowed by knee injuries. When he has played, he has put up outstanding per minute rebounding numbers.
North Carolina’s ability to pass and shoot the basketball will allow them to space the floor as much as any ACC team with the new 3 point line, while post scorer Armando Bacot and multiple drivers will be able to take advantage of it in the paint. Offensive rebounding, which is always a strength (11th in offensive rebounds per game last season), will actually get easier. At the other end of the floor, the team is loaded with tough, defensive minded players both inside and particularly out, and, while leading the nation in rebounding margin for the second straight year is unlikely, it will still be a strength thanks to the carefully chosen newcomers. Freshmen and small conference transfers can be slow to adjust, so there is definitely the possibility of disappointment, but there is a very real possibility that Roy Williams will again be coaching a National Championship contender in March.
December 17 Injury/Pre-conference Update: The Tar Heels are clearly in serious trouble for the next six weeks as they wait for Cole Anthony (19.1 ppg., 6.3 rpg., 3.6 apg., 3.8 topg., 35.5% 3pt.) to return from knee surgery, although they do catch a major break from their schedule with six games against the likely bottom six teams in the conference through February 1. They are coming off an embarrassing home loss to the severely undersized remnants of Mike Young’s last Wofford team, and their game against Gonzaga on Wednesday could be horrifying if Leaky Black isn’t able to play and the team approaches the Bulldogs in the same way they did the Terriers. There’s a reason why K.J. Smith was never going to be a part of the rotation: Kenny Smith did not pass along the jets. That cannot be the game plan. What the Tar Heels have decided to do with Justin Pierce makes even less sense now. His confidence and aggression have plummeted along with his minutes, and he has been used solely as a backup big man. Without Cole Anthony, Black, Robinson, Pierce, and possibly Anthony Harris are the only players that simultaneously possess perimeter skills, enough size and athletic ability to consistently make good things happen against a higher level of competition, and a penchant for making good decisions with the basketball; it doesn’t make sense not to maximize their minutes and take full advantage of everything they have to offer. Even with Anthony, the offense has been terrible, ranking 305th in field goal percentage, 314th in 3 point percentage, and 173rd in assist to turnover ratio prior to his injury. Once he returns, if Pierce and either Christian Keeling or Harris are not major contributors and Andrew Platek is still receiving significant minutes, then this North Carolina team still simply is not going very far; they still defend well (29th in fg% defense) and dominate the boards (currently 5th in rebounding margin, although Anthony was a major part of that), so they will still make the NCAA Tournament, but it would be a very brief visit. The Tar Heels can definitely still turn things around, and Anthony’s absence may actually help by allowing, and even requiring, other people to make plays, but some things are definitely going to have to change.
December 26th Point Guard Update: Despite not playing basketball in nearly three years, Jeremiah Francis has emerged as an unlikely part time answer at point guard, where he's able to make things happen that K.J. Smith can't, plays with more confidence and aggression than Leaky Black, and actually operates more efficiently than Cole Anthony did, who had more turnovers than assists. With the light part of their schedule in front of them, the UCLA victory could be the start of a stretch that sees the Tar Heels win eight or nine out of ten games, although they will definitely need Anthony to return in time for their February 3 game against Florida St..
January 3 Injury Update: While he had only really been a major contributor for three games, the loss of Anthony Harris to a knee injury is a significant one for North Carolina. Harris averaged 9.3 points and hit 3 of 6 3's in those games, and he helped the Tar Heels win their last two games and avoid significant embarrassment against Gonzaga while they await the return of Anthony. His departure means more minutes for the likes of K.J. Smith, Andrew Platek, and a horribly disappointing Christian Keeling, and will hurt the team at both ends of the floor. Those minutes could be minimized when Anthony returns, but UNC's short term and long term potential has been significantly diminished. Unless Keeling comes around and Leaky Black becomes significantly more aggressive, there just aren't enough capable two way players left for North Carolina to be North Carolina.
January 8 Home Upset Update: After Roy Williams displayed a shocking lack of faith in his team and effectively threw his players under the bus in comments he made to the press, the Tar Heels fell apart at home against a less than impressive Pittsburgh team. It was a game that the Tar Heels didn't have to lose, and even with the impending return of Cole Anthony this suddenly looks like a team that could struggle to qualify for the NIT.
Pre-Tournament/End of Season Update: ESPN has been pushing the idea that North Carolina could steal a NCAA Tournament bid by winning the ACC Tournament. That is not going to happen. Barring multiple major upsets, any team outside of the top 4 would need to defeat 3 of those 4 teams in consecutive days (and North Carolina, in particular, would be playing their third game in three days at the beginning of that three stretch). None of those lower tier teams is good enough to do that; there is a reason why there are only four clear NCAA Tournament teams in the conference, and at least three of those teams have earned high seeds. The divide is unusually large. On the bright side, Christian Keeling has finally relaxed and is playing up to his potential, and the Tar Heels do finally have a solid eight man rotation that would be a likely Tournament team if they could play the season over again. However, the team does still have problems - most notably, everyone, including and especially Roy Williams, is convinced that Cole Anthony is a great basketball player, which he absolutely is not - assuming you define a good basketball player as someone that helps you win basketball games. He is likely plummeting down the draft boards of several NBA teams - although he may still be a top 5 pick by some misguided, struggling franchise (yes, the Knicks do still possess their 1st round pick and they need a point guard). While he’s very flashy and aggressive and a solid athlete, he has a 1 to 1 assist to turnover ratio, his shooting percentages are low (37.3% overall, 31.6% 3pt.), and, while he can get by most people off the dribble, when he does he’s completely unaware of when larger people are ready to block his shot and he seemingly gets his shot blocked all the time. He’s also a terrible on the ball defender. That sort of inefficiency isn’t really acceptable in the NBA anymore, and it doesn’t help win college basketball games either (his high school teams also underachieved). Anthony is also a chemistry problem waiting to happen, which was never more apparent than at the end of his big return game against Boston College when, instead of passing the ball to create an open look (which is North Carolina basketball), he started yelling at his teammates to set up multiple screens for himself before forcing up a terrible shot. Also, have you noticed how he pads his rebounding stats by stealing them from his teammates? Prior to their win against NC State, North Carolina had lost a total of nine games in a row (including games before and after his injury) with Anthony apparently being encouraged to play hero ball. The Tar Heels will be good again next season with a loaded recruiting class, three strong returning starters, and Anthony in the NBA.