Updated date:

Will the Republicans Hold the US Senate in 2020?

Author:

John Hickenlooper D-CO

Attribution: Gage Skidmore

Attribution: Gage Skidmore

Establishing a baseline (updated November 3)

In the US Senate currently, there are 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and 2 Independents. Given the Independents caucus with the Democrats, the effective split is 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats. US Senators hold six year terms and there are 33 regular elections and two special elections to fill incomplete terms (AZ and GA).

We have to start somewhere with a baseline, in order to get to the competitive races. The incumbent Democratic candidate in Alabama, Doug Jones, is regarded as unlikely to defeat Republican candidate Tuberville.

In Georgia, the special election is contested with three competitive candidates, one Democrat and two Republican. If no candidate reaches the majority, which appears a reasonable projection at this point, there will be a run-off in January. This race is a stay tuned situation. The regular Senate election in GA is now seen as competitive.

There is the possible upset of the Republican in South Carolina and the Democrat in Michigan, but I do not either happening.

The starting point would be: Republican 54 and Democrat 46.

Rating Organizations (updated November 3)

CB: Sabato's Crystal Ball. Cook: Cook Political Report. IE: Inside Elections. POL: Politico. OPT: Optimus. 538 = 538. R = Republican. D = Democratic. T = Toss-up.

CBCookIEPOLOPT538

ME

D

T

D

T

D

T

NC

D

T

D

T

D

D

MT

R

T

T

T

T

R

CO

D

D

D

D

D

D

AZ

D

D

D

D

D

D

IA

R

T

T

T

T

T

GA-regular

T

T

T

T

T

T

GA-special

T

T

R

R

T

D

US Senate Race: Republicans 46, Democrats 49, Toss-Up 5 (updated November 3)

Starting with the baseline which had removed one Democrat (Alabama), and given all of the data above, we add Colorado, Arizona and North Carolina as Democratic pickups, which brings the number of Democrats from 46 to 49 and the number of Republicans from 54 to 51. Further, we establish our five toss-up races: Maine, Montana, Iowa, and the two Georgia races. This means we now have Democrats at 49, Republicans at 46 and toss-ups at 5.




Create Your Interactive Map Starting With My Senate Analysis

Comments

MG Singh emge from Singapore on July 11, 2020:

Interesting coverage. One will have to wait and see how things pan out.