Updated date:

Will Trump Win in 2020?

Author:

Biden remains the favorite on "election day"

will-trump-win-in-the-electoral-college-in

Where does the election stand as of November 3, 2020?

The numbers ...

Aggregate EV: Biden 335; Trump 181; Toss-up 22 [ME-2 from toss-up to Biden on 29-Oct]

Adjusted State Polling EV: Biden 308; Trump 163; Toss-up 67 [AZ from Biden to toss-up on 31-Oct]

Organization Ratings EV: Biden 290; Trump 163; Toss-up 85 [IA shifted from Trump to toss-up on 8-Oct]

Projected National Popular Vote (updated on 3-Nov): Biden advantage over Trump 9.2%

Early Vote (in-person + mail): (1:04 am EST on 3-Nov): Party ID: DEM 45.0%, REP 30.5%, Minor party 0.7%, No party 23.8%. Total early vote: 99,657,079 (72.3% of total vote from 2016)

Poll

Aggregate Forecast by State (updated November 3)

Probability Biden wins in each state is computed based on organization ratings (adjusted by recency and update frequency) and state polling data (adjusted by historical record, recency of poll and number of polls).

StateProb. Biden winsLast Change [date]Projection

ME-2

64%

-1% [3-Nov]

Lean Biden

NH

90%

-2% [1-Nov]

Likely Biden

PA

85%

-2% [21-Oct]

Likely Biden

NC

63%

-1% [3-Nov]

Lean Biden

GA

52%

-4% [2-Nov]

Toss-up

FL

70%

+1% [3-Nov]

Lean Biden

OH

39%

-0% [3-Nov]

Lean Trump

MI

89%

-3% [2-Nov]

Likely Biden

WI

88%

+1% [3-Nov]

Likely Biden

IA

45%

-1% [3-Nov]

Toss-up

NE-2

81%

-1% [3-Nov]

Likely Biden

AZ

66%

-1% [3-Nov]

Lean Biden

NV

86%

-1% [2-Nov]

Likely Biden

TX

33%

-2% [2-Nov]

Lean Trump

MN

93%

+1% [3-Nov]

Likely Biden

Aggregate Forecast: Biden 335, Trump 181, Toss-up 22 (updated November 3)

Biden is projected at 335 EV, Trump 181 EV and Toss-up 22 EV (GA, IA). Trump is projected to win OH and TX, with Biden the rest of the battleground states, with exception of GA, IA which are currently rated as toss-ups.

Changes over last two weeks:

  1. October 29 - ME-2 from toss-up to Biden
  2. October 21 - ME-2 from Biden to toss-up
  3. October 18 - ME-2 from toss-up to Biden; OH from toss-up to Trump

The forecast above statistically combines the adjusted projections of each rating organization by state, with the historically adjusted state polling collected since May 1. A toss-up is declared if the probability of a Biden win is between 40% and 60%. "Lean Biden", "Likely Biden" and "Safe Biden" are triggered at greater than 65%, 80% and 95% probability of a Biden win. "Lean Trump", "Likely Trump" and "Safe Trump" are assigned at probability of Biden win between 20% and 40%, between 5% and 20%, and less than 5% respectively.


Create an Interactive Map Starting with My Aggregate Forecast

Poll

Adjusted State Polling (updated November 3)

Based on the average of all polls released since May 1, 2020. Bold row reflects recent change. *Prob. Biden wins adjusted for election results in 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016 and weighted according to recency of poll*.

StateBidenTrump# Polls*Prob. Biden Wins*Projection

IA

46.6%

47.0%

39

*49%*

Toss-up

TX

46.5%

47.7%

62

*33%*

Lean Trump

GA

47.2%

46.7%

67

*49%*

Toss-up

OH

46.4%

47.3%

43

*43%*

Toss-up

ME-2

46.5%

44.6%

14

*60%*

Toss-up

NC

47.9%

46.0%

118

*57%*

Toss-up

AZ

48.3%

44.5%

99

*59%*

Toss-up

NV

48.8%

44.1%

19

*75%*

Lean Biden

FL

48.7%

45.5%

117

*62%*

Lean Biden

PA

49.9%

44.4%

120

*77%*

Lean Biden

NH

52.4%

42.7%

21

*93%*

Likely Biden

WI

50.2%

43.2%

110

*84%*

Likely Biden

MI

50.2%

42.6%

116

*87%*

Likely Biden

NE-2

50.9%

43.6%

7

86%

Likely Biden

MN

51.0%

42.4%

40

*90%*

Likely Biden

Adjusted State Polling: Biden 308, Trump 163, Toss-up 67 (updated November 3)

The electoral vote outcome based on 1425 state polls since May 1, 2020, adjusted for historical voting and recency of poll, with toss-ups declared if the probability of a win is between 40% and 60%, would be Biden 308, Trump 163, toss-up 67 (ME-2, NC, GA, OH, IA, AZ).

Changes over last month::

  1. October 31 - AZ from Biden to toss-up
  2. October 31 - AZ from toss-up to Biden
  3. October 30 - AZ from Biden to toss-up
  4. October 28 - AZ from toss-up to Biden
  5. October 22 - AZ from Biden to toss-up
  6. October 20 - AZ from toss-up to Biden
  7. October 18 - AZ from Biden to toss-up
  8. October 6 - ME-2 from Biden to toss-up
  9. October 5 - AZ from toss-up to Biden

Outside of the "battleground" states noted in the chart above, based on polling, Trump is projected to win Wyoming (+31), West Virginia (+25%), Idaho (+23%), Oklahoma (+23%), Arkansas (+21%), North Dakota (+20%), Alabama (+18%), Kentucky (+17%), Louisiana (+16), South Dakota (+15%), Tennessee (+15%), Mississippi (+14%), Utah (+12%), Nebraska (+11%), Indiana (+10%), Kansas (+9%), Montana (+8%), Missouri (+6%), Alaska (+6%) and South Carolina (+6%).

Biden has the advantage in New Mexico (+11%), Virginia (+12%), Maine (+13%), Colorado (+14%), Oregon (+19%), Illinois (+20%), New Jersey (+21%), ME-1 (+23%), Delaware (+25%), Connecticut (+26%), Washington (+26%), Rhode Island (+27%), California (+29%), New York (+29%), Hawaii (30%), Vermont (+31%), Maryland (+32%), Massachusetts (+36%) and District of Columbia (+77%),.

In order for Trump to win, his most likely path based on the polling data depicted in the chart above, is to win in all of the following states, from most likely to least likely: Iowa, Texas, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Florida and Pennsylvania. If Trump wins in each of those eight states, and carries every state he is expected to win (listed in the paragraph above), that would bring the total for Trump to 278. With this particular outcome, Trump does not need to win in ME-2, NE-2, New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota or Nevada. Based on existing polling data, Pennsylvania is the key state. If Trump wins in Pennsylvania he should have won in the other seven states. As readers can see, Biden leads Trump in Pennsylvania by 5%.

In terms of use of state polling data, this analyst chose to start with May 1, 2020, and to not weight polling data with two exceptions: (a) if a poll uses more than one voter type, likely voters are prioritized over registered voters who are prioritized over all and (b) if a poll has more than one version, the data is averaged over versions of the same voter type. Simple averages will be used through the election. This capsule will be updated any time there is a poll in a battleground state listed in the chart above. If a state has no polls at all, then historical voting patterns are used to make a projection.

Create an Interactive Map Starting with My Existing State Polling Data

Poll

What do rating organizations say as of November 3, 2020?

Bold row reflects recent change.

AnalystUpdatedBidenTrumpToss-Ups

JHK Forecasts

November 1

351

125

24 (OH, IA)

U.S. News

November 2

279

125

134 (ME-2, NC, GA, FL, OH, IA, TX, AZ)

Princeton 0

November 2

335

187

16 (GA)

Princeton D+3%

November 1

395

125

18 (OH)

Princeton R+3%

November 2

309

203

26 (NC, AZ)

NPR

October 30

279

125

85 (ME-2, PA, NC, GA, FL, OH, IA, TX, AZ)

Politico

November 2

279

163

80 (ME-2, NC, GA, FL, OH, IA, AZ)

CNN

November 2

279

163

96 (ME-2, NC, GA, FL, IA, AZ)

PredictIt Market

November 2

290

248

0

The Economist

November 2

334

164

40 (GA, OH, IA)

Inside Elections

October 28

350

125

63 (ME-2, OH, IA, TX)

Cook

October 28

290

125

123 (ME-2, NC, GA, FL, OH, IA, TX)

Crystal Ball

November 2

321

217

0

ABC News

October 12

334

163

41 (ME-2, GA, OH, IA)

538

November 2

319

125

94 (ME-2, NC, GA, OH, IA, TX)

CBS News

November 1

279

163

96 (ME-2, NC, GA, FL, OH, IA, AZ)

Optimus

November 3

308

163

67 (ME-2, NC, GA, OH, IA, AZ)

Rating Organizations: Biden 290, Trump 163, Toss-up 85 (updated November 3)

Overall, based on state projections by the 18 rating organizations, Biden stands at 290 electoral votes (including NH, PA, MI, WI, MN and NV) , Trump at 163 electoral votes (including TX) with there being 85 electoral votes not projected (ME-2, NC, GA, FL, OH, IA).

Recent changes in the electoral vote projection follow:

  1. October 8 - IA from Trump to toss-up
  2. October 5 - NE-2 and AZ from toss-up to Biden
  3. September 28 - AZ from Biden to toss-up
  4. September 26 - GA from Trump to toss-up
  5. September 25 - OH from Trump to toss-up
  6. September 20 - GA from toss-up to Trump
  7. September 17 - OH from toss-up to Trump
  8. September 17 - FL from Biden to toss-up

The most recent projection changes by rating organizations are listed below:

  1. Optimus - TX from toss-up to Trump
  2. Economist - NC from toss-up to Biden; OH from Trump to toss-up
  3. US News - TX from Trump to toss-up
  4. CNN - AZ from Biden to toss-up
  5. Economist - NC from Biden to toss-up; OH from toss-up to Trump
  6. JHK Forecast - GA from toss-up to Biden
  7. NPR - AZ from Biden to toss-up; TX from Trump to toss-up
  8. Politico - GA from Trump to toss-up
  9. Crystal Ball - ME-2, FL, OH and IA from toss-up to Trump; GA and NC from toss-up to Biden
  10. Princeton R+3% - NC from Biden to toss-up; FL from toss-up to Biden
  11. 538 - NC from Biden to toss-up; FL from toss-up to Biden
  12. Princeton 0 - GA from Biden to toss-up; IA from toss-up to Trump
  13. PredictIt Market - NC from Biden to Trump
  14. Optimus - NC from Biden to toss-up; FL from toss-up to Biden
  15. Princeton R+3% - AZ from Biden to toss-up
  16. Princeton D+3% - TX from toss-up to Biden
  17. Princeton 0 - GA from toss-up to Biden
  18. 538 - TX from Trump to toss-up; FL from Biden to toss-up
  19. Princeton R+3% - ME-2 from Trump to Biden
  20. Princeton D+3% - TX from Biden to toss-up
  21. Princeton 0 - TX from toss-up to Trump
  22. US News - AZ from Biden to toss-up; GA and IA from Trump to toss-up
  23. PredictIt Market - NC from Trump to Biden
  24. 538 - NC and FL from toss-up to Biden
  25. Inside Elections - NC and GA from toss-up to Biden; Texas from Trump to toss-up
  26. Optimus - FL from Biden to toss-up

Create an Interactive Map Starting with My Analysis of the Rating Organization Projections

National polls: Biden 51.5% - Trump 42.3%

Analysis based on average of all unique national polls released within one month of election day. Only one poll (the most recent) per polling organization is included. Bold row reflects most recent change.

datepollBidenTrump

1-Nov

Leger

50

42

1-Nov

Survey Monkey

52

46

1-Nov

NBC News / WSJ

52

42

1-Nov

IBD/TIPP

49.5

44

1-Nov

USC Dornsife

54

42

1-Nov

Data for Progress

54

44

1-Nov

CCES/You Gov

51

41

31-Oct

Gravis Marketing

50

44

31-Oct

Fox News

51

44

31-Oct

Angus Reid Global

53

45

31-Oct

Spry Strategies

46

48

30-Oct

Rasmussen

49

46

30-Oct

Opinium

55

41

30-Oct

Swayable

51

45

30-Oct

Hofstra

54

43

30-Oct

Long Island University

47

36

29-Oct

Harris

54

46

29-Oct

Morning Consult

52

43

29-Oct

AtlasIntel

51

46

29-Oct

HarrisX

53

47

29-Oct

Suffolk

51

43.5

29-Oct

Winston Group

48

43

29-Oct

Cometrends

56

44

29-Oct

Tufts

52

45

28-Oct

JL Partners

55

41

28-Oct

Ipsos/Reuters

52

42

28-Oct

Global Marketing

53

39

28-Oct

Redfield & Wilton

51

41

28-Oct

CNN

54

42

28-Oct

Brandwatch Qriously

49

39

28-Oct

Change Research

51

43

28-Oct

Rethink Priorities

51

42

28-Oct

GBAO

53

40

28-Oct

Public Religion Research

55

36

27-Oct

Emerson

51

47

26-Oct

CNBC/Hart/POS

51

40

26-Oct

RMG Research

51

44

23-Oct

Echelon Insights

50.5

44

23-Oct

GSG/GBAO/Nav. Research

53

43

21-Oct

Quinnipiac

51

41

21-Oct

Survey USA

53

43

21-Oct

Research Co.

50

42

20-Oct

Siena/New York Times

50

41

16-Oct

AP/NORC

51

36

16-Oct

Kaiser Family

49

38

15-Oct

Whitman Insights

54

42

15-Oct

Marist

54

42

15-Oct

Edison Research

48

35

15-Oct

UMass Lowell

53

43

13-Oct

Zogby

46

44

11-Oct

ABC News/Wash. Post

54.5

42.5

10-Oct

Innovative Research

47

42

9-Oct

Pew Research

52

42

7-Oct

St. Leo

52

38

Why worry about national popular vote? (updated November 2)

The popular vote analysis, based on the average of all unique polls released within one month of election day has Biden at 51.5% and Trump at 42.3%. Using a regression analysis, the projected advantage for Biden on election day is 9.2%.

We know, the office of President is determined by the electoral college, not the popular vote. However, out of 58 U.S. presidential elections, in only five has the popular vote and electoral college outcome not matched. The most recent was 2016 when Trump defeated Clinton in the electoral college but lost the popular vote by nearly 4 million (51%-49%). The controversial race prior to Trump-Clinton was Bush-Gore when Gore won the popular vote by 500,000 but lost in the electoral college. The only other mismatches occurred in 1888, 1876 and 1824.

Data is not weighted with two exceptions: (a) if a poll uses more than one voter type, likely voters are prioritized over registered voters who are prioritized over adult voters and (b) if a poll has more than one version, the data is averaged over versions of the same voter type.


2020 Early Vote - Percent of 2016 Total Vote (updated November 1)

Early vote is total of absentee plus mail. Bold reflects states where early voted has exceeded the total 2016 vote. * = party id state.

StateEarly Vote% Early2016 Total

HA

484,000

114.04

424,429

TX

9,677,963

107.90

8,969,226

MT

510,645

102.72

497,147

WA

3,292,135

102.58

3,209,214

NC*

4,531,619

95.57

4,741,564

GA

3,903,356

94.86

4,114,732

NM*

749,264

93.86

798,319

FL*

8,700,645

92.36

9,420,039

NV*

1,026,318

91.20

1,125,385

TN

2,280,747

90.94

2,508,027

OR*

1,806,172

90.25

2,001,336

CO*

2,479,228

89.17

2,780,247

AZ

2,302,756

88.41

2,604,657

NJ*

3,150,439

81.32

3,874,046

UT

909,086

80.35

1,131,430

VT

244,745

76.37

320,467

CA*

10,579,368

74.60

14,181,585

AR

804,334

71.14

1,130,635

ND

244,247

70.93

344,360

DC

219,311

70.46

311,268

MD*

1,944,735

69.92

2,781,446

MA

2,282,879

69.78

3,271,768

VA

2,732,766

68.58

3,984,631

KY*

1,284,523

66.76

1,924,149

WI

1,873,403

62.95

2,976,150

ME*

475,051

61.54

771,892

RI

284,932

61.39

464,144

KS*

711,664

59.57

1,194,755

SC

1,250,452

59.46

2,103,027

IA*

924,533

59.04

1,566,031

IL

3,038,616

54.88

5,536,424

SD*

202,464

54.71

370,093

NE*

454,885

53.88

844,227

MN

1,581,193

53.69

2,944,813

MI

2,571,492

53.58

4,799,284

OH

2,854,258

51.93

5,496,487

IN

1,382,285

50.12

2,757,828

LA*

977,408

48.17

2,029,032

AK

139,095

43.66

318,608

NY

3,073,078

39.80

7,721,242

WY

101,248

39.12

258,788

PA*

2,370,510

38.45

6,165,478

CT*

591,293

35.95

1,644,920

DE

148,424

33.44

443,814

OK*

429,073

29.53

1,452,992

MO

723,058

27.13

2,665,579

NH

181,577

24.43

743,117

ID

156,439

22.66

690,433

WV

128,779

18.03

714,423

MS

142,591

11.77

1,211,088

AL

221,635

10.44

2,123,372

2020 Early Vote - Percent of 2016 Early Vote (updated November 1)

* State reports ballots received by Party ID. 2020 early vote totals mail + in-person.

State2020 Early% Early2016 Early

PA*

2,370,510

#DIV/0!

0

CT*

591,293

#DIV/0!

0

AL

221,635

9239

2,399

RI

284,932

1404

20,293

NY

3,073,078

1307

235,142

MO

723,058

1303

55,503

NJ*

3,150,439

1250

251,981

KY*

1,284,523

1151

111,585

MS

142,591

1031

13,834

NH

181,577

704

25,809

DE

148,424

663

22,387

VT

244,745

544

44,968

VA

2,732,766

505

541,543

MN

1,581,193

278

568,196

AK

139,095

269

51,803

SC

1,250,452

255

490,144

HA

484,000

240

201,632

NE*

454,885

238

191,505

WI

1,873,403

235

797,740

MI

2,571,492

230

1,116,233

MA

2,282,879

228

1,000,000

DC

219,311

217

101,077

IN

1,382,285

217

637,706

TX

9,677,963

215

4,497,431

SD*

202,464

202

100,367

CA*

10,579,368

200

5,294,036

MD*

1,944,735

199

975,119

ME*

475,051

194

245,112

UT

909,086

189

480,356

IL

3,038,616

189

1,611,773

ND

244,247

185

131,789

LA*

977,408

184

531,124

OK*

429073

173

247470

MT

510645

171

297991

GA

3903356

164

2381782

OH

2854258

160

1784384

KS*

711664

152

468032

WA

3292135

147

2241168

IA*

924533

147

630540

NC*

4531619

146

3102834

NM*

749264

144

522041

OR*

1806172

140

1291268

AZ

2302756

139

1661874

AR

804334

136

590667

TN

2280747

136

1675679

WY

101248

135

74751

FL*

8700645

134

6511712

NV*

1026318

133

770133

CO*

2479228

112

2215258

ID

156439

81

193421

WV

128779

55

233161

2020 Early Voting Percents in Reporting States by Party ID (updated November 1)

m=mail; ip=in-person; t=total. * = percents do not add to 100 due to data reporting from state

StateDEMREPMinorNo Party

MD-m

69.3

14.7

0.0

15.9

PA-m

66.4

22.9

0.7

10.0

NM-m

61.5

21.7

1.3

15.5

KY-m*

58.9

24.7

0.0

5.4

CA-m

52.4

23.2

0.0

24.4

NM-t

48.9

34.9

1.0

14.9

NV-m

48.7

26.2

0.0

26.8

CT-m

48.6

15.5

1.4

34.4

KS-m

48.1

37.3

0.4

14.2

ME-m

48.1

23.7

3.3

24.9

OK-m

46.5

40.0

0.4

13.0

IA-m

46.4

33.0

0.4

20.2

NC-m

45.5

20.4

0.5

33.6

FL-m

45.5

31.2

1.3

22.0

NJ-m

44.9

25.7

0.7

28.8

LA-t

44.2

37.4

0.0

18.5

OR-m

43.5

28.0

1.8

26.7

KY-t*

41.7

32.5

0.0

4.6

NM-ip

39.9

44.1

0.8

14.5

NV-t

39.6

36.4

0.0

25.0

FL-t

39.2

38.1

1.4

21.3

NE-m

37.9

44.4

0.8

17.0

KS-t

36.7

46.0

0.6

16.6

NC-ip

35.3

34.7

0.5

29.5

SD-m

34.6

46.3

0.4

18.7

CO-m

34.2

27.8

1.3

36.8

FL-ip

32.2

45.8

1.4

20.6

SD-t

31.9

47.8

0.4

19.9

NV-ip

30.2

46.8

0.0

23.1

KY-ip*

29.1

38.1

0.0

4.0

SD-ip

28.0

49.9

0.6

21.5

KS-ip

22.6

56.9

0.9

19.6

CO-ip

22.1

39.1

2.5

36.3

Early Voting (updated October 12)

The election is happening now and pre-election day voting is already setting records. In the states which report ballot activity, more than 9.4 million ballots have been reported cast. In eight states, the number of early votes exceeds 2016 with still 22 days to go before election day. The key question(s) will be: (a) how large the early vote ends up being; (b) how large the vote on election day is; (c) what the split is between total early vote and total election day vote and (d) how Biden and Trump fare respectively on the early vote versus the election day vote. If, as expected, the democratic party ID does better than the Republican party ID on the early vote, can the republican party ID vote catch up enough on election day to overtake the democratic party ID?

Florida has overtaken North Carolina as the largest state with party ID returning ballots. The returns favor the Democrat party ID over the Republican party ID by 52-29. The net return rate compared to applications requested also favored the Democrat party ID by 5.3%.

New Jersey has replaced North Carolina, as the 2nd largest reporting state with party ID. In New Jersey, the Democratic party ID outpaces the Republican party ID by 58-21. The return rate also favors the Democratic party ID by 4.9%.

Virginia is currently the largest reporting state without party ID with over 946,000 ballots received, which represents 24% of all votes cast in 2016. Of these votes, 55% are from in-person early voting and 45% are from mail receipts.

In the key state of Pennsylvania, the Democrat party ID has a large advantage over the Republican party ID by 76-16 and a net return advantage relative to ballots requested of 5.1%. These figures are based on a total of 261,832 returned ballots by mail.

In Wisconsin, out of over 1.3 million absentee ballots requested, over 49% have already been received.

South Dakota currently has the highest percent of early voting, relative to the 2016 total vote, at 26% received. In South Dakota, 73% of this early vote is by mail.

Michigan is ambitious in projecting three million mail ballots. At this point, over 844,000 ballots have been returned.

Tracking submissions is possible in some states and will be followed in this capsule. Any conclusion however regarding projecting an early vote tally is confounded by four issues: (a) party affiliation can be misleading; (b) in some states, there is no party affiliation; (c) even in states where party affiliation exists, significant numbers of people may choose no party affiliation; and (d) in many states, it is not possible to track submissions.

In many states, COVID-19 has resulted in election rules regarding absentee voting and mailing ballots being changed.

Legal battles exist across the country around voting. One prominent legal case has been resolved in Wisconsin where the State Supreme Court has voted (4-3) that approximately one million absentee ballots can now be sent without the green party on the ballot. Another decision in Wisconsin allows for absentee ballots to be counted if postmarked on or before before election day if received by November 9.

In Ohio, a federal judge has ruled against the Secretary of State such that more than one drop box per county will be allowed.

A very important set of decisions in Pennsylvania were made by the State Supreme Court which (a) prevents the green party from appearing on the ballot; (b) allows absentee ballots postmarked by election due but not arriving until three days after the election to count; (c) adds drop-boxes and (d) preserves the Pennsylvania law which does not permit out of county poll observers. Pennsylvania is now preparing for an unprecedented wave of mail-in voting. In Nevada, a judge has dismissed a lawsuit against the state's ballot mailing system.

In Florida, the online voter registration portal failed just hours before the deadline. That lead to a contentious set of events over the next few days.

In Texas, there is a very significant ongoing battle over the mailing of vote by mail applications in Harris County. The Court ruled against that practice. Also, in Texas, a federal judge has ruled against the Governor's decision to restrict ballot drop boxes to one per county.

In Michigan, a judge blocked a law which prevented paid transportation to the polls. In addition, in Michigan, a judge has decided that as long as ballots are post-marked before election day, they can be counted as legitimate as long as they arrive within two weeks after the day of the election.

In Vermont, a judge rejected a lawsuit intended to stop the automatic mailing of absentee ballots. In New Jersey, the national and state Republican party filed a lawsuit attempting to stop New Jersey from beginning to count mail-in votes 10 days before the election and to prevent New Jersey from accepting non-postmark ballots through November 5. However, a federal judge has rejected those plans.

In Alabama, a probate judge needed to intercede to "facilitate" the opening of a voting location.

In South Carolina, the Governor has ruled that all eligible residents can vote by absentee.

The number of ballots which will be cast by absentee either through the mail, back to drop boxes or to a clerk's office is expected to be in the tens of millions nationally. In Kentucky, the political spin has already started in earnest. Across the country, the story lines will parallel Kentucky. Democrats will be pushing early voting as it is expected many more Democrats than Republicans will vote early or by absentee. The Republicans argue that many more Republicans will cast their votes on election day.

Taken together, the above presents two significant problems. First, it will take days or weeks for votes to be officially counted in some states, resulting in those states possibly not being projected for either Biden or Trump. Second, the actual reporting or votes by networks will be complicated by not necessarily knowing whether those votes were same day or early/absentee. To be able to understand whether any particular candidate is ahead or behind in a state will depend on knowing how the votes were cast, which may not be clear.

In Ohio, the Board of Elections refused to have the state pay for postage for absentee ballots to be mailed to the various clerks offices.

Finally, mail delays are a possible problem and confusion exists in some states as a mailer sent from the United States Postal Service to all residents nationally is at odds with the actual rules in several states. Some Secretaries of State are displeased with the Postmaster General. A federal judge has blocked the changes instituted by the Postmaster General. A second judge has gone further in ruling that ballot mail must be prioritized for the two weeks around the election. The USPS has reached a settlement over handling ballots by mail.


Comments

Sharlee on August 28, 2020:

I hate to say this but--- You could have canned the stats from when Trump campaigned against Hillary. They are almost I said almost identical. I give you an A+ on all the work you put into this article, it's well written and put together.

It will be very interesting to see if lightning strikes twice. I have to think it will. Seem's like the same old playbook, with a new candidate.

JOC from Syracuse, NY on August 28, 2020:

People clearly see in Trump a malignant narcissist unable to come up with a plan to protect Americans from this pandemic. We see a man selling himself as the 'law and order' candidate while violating campaign laws by using government facilities to run his campaign and having people in his cabinet violate the Hatch Act to show their fealty. We see his supporters going to the protests and shooting people and him unleashing a secret police force on moms and peaceful protesters for a photo op.

We hear from career republicans, members of our military, and former members of his administration how unfit for office the man is. And in the next few days, his narcissism will be clinically discussed for all to see. There's no pivoting away from Trump's failures on the pandemic during this election - this is a referendum on what a terrible president Trump is for this country and the only thing the GOP can do to avoid a devastating loss would be to dump Trump and run someone else.

Sharlee on July 03, 2020:

Not sure it wise to rely on polls. The same time period in 2016 Hillary was crushing Trump. I agree everyone should vote, It's a very important election. However, wins will bring forth change.

Angel Guzman from Joliet, Illinois on July 02, 2020:

I think it's amazing the current status of the polls. Trump has dragged down the republican party. Go Trump! Please keep talking! Keep tweeting! Don't change! Who would have anticipated Arizona, Georgia, and Texas to be competitive in 2020? I am nervous because republicans don't want everyone to vote and strategically work to limit the vote but everyone should vote!! You should be confident in your positions!! I am hopeful for another 2008 but who knows, we might see another 1984 or 1964. That be awesome!

Sharlee on July 01, 2020:

I agree. we have a bit to go before the election, and with all the upheaval it would be very hard to predict at this point. In January I would have said Trump was unbeatable.

Every day I look at all the crazy the Dems are offering such as raise everyone's taxes, and take away Trump's break he had given big business will work to have people taking a good long look at Trump once again. Plus all the left-leaning ideology that is being talked about works to scare people.

I am a pure capitalist and have become very jaded in regards to keeping what I worked hard to accumulate. So, Trump suited me fine, but as I said lots of time to look at both sides. So far, not pleased with any form of taxes being raised. I feel it will once again chase big business money out of the country. As well as us citizens that have tried of all the games our Government play at our expense.

I am retired own in Mexico, and it gets harder and harder to return after winter has passed. Money just goes so much further too. America is just not a comfortable place any longer.

One has to almost toss a coin to choose a president, this tells me the country is in trouble. Look at our choices, a man that clearly has serious character flaws, and another that is clearly senile. One must ask themselves, is America at all worth supporting?

MG Singh emge from Singapore on July 01, 2020:

An article to stimulate the mind. Biden is leading at the moment but there are many variables. let's see if he can hold his lead and win.

Sharlee on June 30, 2020:

Interesting article--- I have compared the 2016 polls at about this point in the election journey Clinton and Trump were on. Actually Trump's chances look worse. It's almost like watching a rerun... In regards to the electoral college, they said Trump could never win enough to win, even early on the night of the election.

Not sure I respect polls any longer.

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