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War Is Coming Back To The Ukraine In 2022

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It has been going on since November. The incremental buildup in the Donbas region of the Ukraine and in parts of Belarus of Russian troops and military hardware. Putin claims (as he did in 2014) it is all for a military exercise in the area and there is no desire to cross the border into Ukraine. Of course, then he issues a stern warning to the West about crossing red lines and to stop!

Putin does not want NATO countries to border Russia. The Ukraine is not part of NATO yet, but they would like it to be and Putin is determined not to allow it to happen. The Ukraine was once part of the USSR until it broke away in the 90's, like many other regions that once made up the USSR. It was the "bread basket" for Russia and had many military installations. It was a very important region for Russia then and Putin has never got over losing it! It is now its own country with its own leader and government. Its army is mostly left over Soviet weapons and material that they were allowed to keep. There is some updated weapons but the status of the Ukrainian Army is not equal to the more modern Russian forces across the border.

The Build-Up

There are now some 40 battalion sized units along the border comprising of at least 94,000+ men, 1200 tanks, 1600 artillery guns, 330 aircraft, 75 ships in the Black Sea. Some estimates indicate that there are over 125,000 men, in any case, it is a vast amount of military presence just for a military exercise!

According NATO, the fear is that sometime in January, 2022, Putin will order this force to attack into Ukraine again to retake a bigger slice of the country that will include the city of Kiev, Kharkov, Odessa and maybe even Poltava. The Odessa force is 12 battalions that will land by sea as Russians move out of the Crimea with its 22nd Army Corps. Some eight battalions will invade north of Kharkov while another 15 battalions cross south of the city as pro-Russian forces attack from Donetsk area where the front lines are. The city of Kiev will be attacked by four airborne battalions and two motorized divisions from Belarus. Each of theses battalions contain up to 900 men.

It seems Putin is not trying to hide much and is giving plenty of warnings about his intentions. NATO and the USA seem to dare them by threatening massive financial sanctions on Russia, which is about the strongest weapon they have to deter him. The Ukrainian Army is strong in spots, but weak in other areas. Their equipment is old and obsolete in many ways. Its air defenses are also dated. The whole picture looks dismal for Ukraine because will NATO and the USA really go to full war to halt Russia's grab for more of what was once theirs?

I doubt it. Look at what happened when the first grab occurred in 2014-15. Ukraine requested aid from NATO and USA, and little actually came that would help them. This time, things will be different as Russia is not trying to hide its own involvement. This time, Russia will crush Ukraine and Putin will retake a large slice again, or maybe, if their is a complete collapse, all of the Ukraine again.

Russia is already using disinformation about what will trigger this new invasion, saying that, the Ukrainian army has been violating the peace accord over 100 times, that NATO is going to make Ukraine part of it (which Putin cannot tolerate), that American naval ships should stay out of the Black Sea off Crimea.

It seems that NATO and the US have more or less acquiesced with regards to what is a forgone conclusion. The West is not going to go all out to defend Ukraine. Any aid sent to them will be token gifts and may not arrive fast enough to stop the Russian army. The financial sanctions on Russia may hurt them but it will also provoke more military force in the area or other border regions.

In the end, the handwriting is on the wall for everyone. There's nothing much more that can be done.

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