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Ukraine Battle: Russian Victory or WWIII

A senior air warrior, graduate from the Staff College and a PG in military studies. He is qualified to write on war and allied matters.

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Introduction

Ukraine has caught the imagination of the world because it is a tinderbox that can lead to World War III. It's worth examining the issue. The first thing that's very clear is that the Russian advance in the eastern region is a success. They are moving forward and as per reports, are only 75 miles from Odesa, the main port of Ukraine on the Black Sea. They are also nearing the city of Kharkiv which is being pounded regularly.

The Russians have occupied almost about 35 to 40 percent of eastern Ukraine and that's a lot of territories. There is a fly in the ointment as fighting has gone on for over three months and the success has not been commensurate with the effort. but finally, after two months of heavy fighting, the clock is turning in favor of the Russians. This is the crucial point.

Another important point is that the EU sanctions and the sanctions by Joe Biden and Boris Johnson have failed. The rouble is strong and Russia is not going to give up.

NATO spearheaded by the USA has been supplying weapons worth millions of dollars worth to Ukraine. What is the result? giving a weapon itself has got no meaning unless you know how to use it.

An example will suffice. In 1965 the USA had armed Pakistan like they are arming Ukraine now. The idea was to decimate India. The Pakistan army had the most modern Patton tanks with night vision but they failed when they faced the Indian vintage WW II tanks the Sherman and Amx because the Pakistani crew was not able to operate the sophisticated weaponry. This is what is happening in Ukraine. Despite the latest weaponry they haven't been able to do anything; they've lost vast areas and Ukraine has become a wasteland. Seven million refugees and the country is destroyed and the granary of Europe is devasted.


A Russian win ?

The devastation of Ukraine is going to take a long long time to overcome once the war is over, if at all peace returns. The moot question is whether Ukraine will ever get back on its feet economically. The situation is very grim at the moment and Johnson and Biden are not realizing they have dragged Ukraine to a point of no return. They are egging on the naive Ukrainian president Zelensky to fight on as well the smaller EU nations to needle Russia. This is all part of the grand plan to create Russia as an enemy for the next 100 years.

The flames are now rising as one of the Baltic republics (Lithuania) has stopped the access of Russia to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. This is a serious matter and the Russians have not liked it and have threatened retaliatory action. This retaliatory action can be dangerous and could lead to an existentialist crisis for these small Baltic states.

One will remember that in 1960 there was the U-2 spy incident when American spy captain Gary Power was shot down over Russia and Khrushchev was infuriated. He was the first secretary of the Soviet communist party and he threatened that just 5/6 Thermonuclear H- Bombs will wipe England from the world map.

Prime minister Harold Macmillan realized the gravity of the situation and the situation calmed down. This statement is still relevant I'm really worried for the small European nations who are the ones shouting the most from the rooftops forgetting that in a nuclear exchange these countries will just cease to exist. I wonder if their leadership realizes that a nuclear war is not a child's play and the Russians are winning in the Donbas region. Frankly, there is no option to a Russian victory or the alternative is the destruction of centuries-old European civilization.

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However, the Russians must be very careful that they do not have a pyrrhic victory like England in WWII. England defeated Hitler but within two years from Great Britain, it became little Britain. They had to relinquish their empire within two years of the end of WW 2. This is a fact of history; an empire going on for 200 years collapsed within two years, so Russia's got to be very careful. They don't want to win in Ukraine and destroy themselves.

At the moment it looks a little dicey for the Russians because many of the top generals have been killed which itself is not a good sign because it means there is not much motivation in the Russian army to fight and generals have to be on the front line to motivate the troops.

Russia has superior firepower and that could possibly give victory. An incident needs to be highlighted. Recently the Russians carried out an exercise over one of the smaller Baltic states and the helicopters flew with impunity over those areas and the Americans did nothing.

The Baltic states must see the writing on the wall. It will be fallacious thinking to surmise that the Americans are going to come and fight for them and throw in their troops and nuclear weapons. This is not going to happen and instead of provoking Russia by stopping the trains to Kaliningrad, they need accommodation with Russia as they may very well cease to exist.

The Americans are trying their level best to keep NATO. The earlier Baghdad pact, SEATO, and CENTO have become history and NATO would also have gone the same way but they had created an enemy, an imaginary enemy so that the British and Americans the anglo-Saxons can keep their hegemony over Europe.


The swan song

Ukraine is a very very small incident in this entire scenario and if I were a European leader I would have made an accommodation with Russia because the alternative is frightening. But that requires a statesman and don't think Biden has that capability. If he had the capability he would have nipped this Ukraine problem in the bud. On the contrary, he egged on Ukraine to fight, and now Ukraine by listening to Mr. Biden has lost 35 to 40% of their territory, thousands of soldiers killed and their economy destroyed with 8 million refugees.

Zelensky is a war criminal. Who is a war criminal war? he is one who provokes an unsolicited war and this is what he did. He's not a knight in shining armor as his name features in the Panama papers and is alleged to have salted away a lot of assets in London, Windward islands, and other places.

The personal life of Zelensky does not interest the world but when there s danger of nuclear war and destruction it's a different matter. The European powers have to be realistic and not live in a dream world thinking uncle Sam will bale them out.

A reminder of the past can be chilling. Uncle Sam dropped general Chiang kai-Shek like a hot potato in 1972 even after he was their ally for 40 years. It was the time when Nixon visited China and paid his obeisance to the communist leadership led by Mao.

I hope this war will come to the end and sanity prevails. As it stands it does not look likely and I can see only one result; either Russia wins in Ukraine or there is nuclear war and the ancient civilization of Europe is taken to the stone age. Who is responsible, does it matter in the end?

© 2022 MG Singh emge

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