On Tuesday, November 6, 2018 the next round of elections will take place in the United States. This is going to be an important time as all 435 House of Representative seats, 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate, and 39 state and territorial governorships will be contested.
All trends seem to point to Democratic party gains, it's just a matter of how big those gains are. The big question is "Why is this likely?" Why does the Democratic party stand to gain in the upcoming midterm elections? Here is why...
The first reason why things are looking up for the Democrats is based on history. In the past 21 midterm elections, the party of the incumbent President has lost an average of 30 seats in the House of Representatives and four in the Senate. There have only been two times (1934 and 2002) where the President's party gained seats.
Why does this happen? It's likely due to the losing side realizing that without higher voter turnout, their candidates won't do well while the winning side gets complacent since they recently won.
It's also likely due to the opposing party being unhappy with whatever the party in control of the White House is proposing. That kind of disagreement is a strong motivation to get out and vote.
Presidential elections are won on big dreams and major promises. Once elected though, reality sets in and many of those promises need to be eroded to actually get legislation passed. During the Obama presidency, the big campaign promise he got hammered on was 'If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor under the ACA.' That promise didn't work out and was a huge hit to his popularity and was a cause for his drop in popularity.
A second cause, is that the national media tends to nitpick every misstep by a sitting President. Conservative news sources hammered Obama, while liberal ones are doing the same to Trump.
What do you think?
Whatever issues are happening in the country, the buck stops with the President. The citizenry looks to the leader to solve the problems and if there isn't progress, there is going to be dissatisfaction that will show up in the polls. With so many issues and different things that affect different swaths of the country, it's almost a certainty that some areas will not get their needs addressed.
The American dream is that everyone can be successful and everyone wants to be financially secure. At the same point, this generation of Americans wants what they want and they want it now. It used to be you used hard work and sweat to achieve your goals over a long period of time. Nowadays, everyone's looking for the quick success story. Those that aren't hitting it rich, likely feel disgruntled. That feeling gets reflected in elections.
The Russia Issue
In the upcoming elections, there are some issues that are unique. First, there is a huge current investigation surrounding interference by Russia in our last Presidential election. There are also outstanding questions pertaining to how much involvement the Trump Campaign had in that interference.
Those that support the President believe his talking points that it's nothing more than a 'witch hunt.' While there have been indictments of Trump campaign staff, none of the crimes of those indicted point back to cooperation with Russia to help get him elected.
On the other hand, those that oppose Trump point to multiple meetings during the campaign of Trump staff and Russians. They find it hard to believe that with all those meetings and with the confirmed indictment of 13 Russians for meddling in the last election by the Mueller investigation, that there wasn't some form of collusion going on.
Combine those contacts with the fact that Trump's business interests have multiple ties to Russian interests, and there is a general concern by a large percentage of the country that the leader of the United States is either beholden to or in cahoots with Vladimir Putin and the Russian government.
This concern is further backed by the fact that Trump signed into law sanctions against the Russian government that were passed by a 530-5 vote but refuses to act on them. His statement that he made that he believed Putin over the findings of the United States intelligence services who claimed with absolute certainty that Russia interfered in the last election does not sit well with the patriotism of the average American. Believing Russians over Americans is a slap in the face to justice.
Speaking of justice, the perception that Trump has tried to obstruct the investigation into the Russia meddling is another real concern of voters. It will be interesting to see how that affects certain Congressmen such as Matt Gaetz of Florida and Devin Nunes of California who have worked publicly to aid in that undermining effort. Voters are beginning to openly question where their allegiances lie, with the truth or with partisan politics.
Many in the GOP are conservatives, both in social and fiscal policy. When Trump and his party passed the Tax 'reform' legislation at the end of last year rolling back taxes, there was major concern about the who that legislation really benefits. Many voters believe that was a major piece of legislation that helps those already wealthy Americans. In one Congressional district, the feedback a Senator got was 95% against passing that legislation because of the new property taxes would directly hurt the constituency, and yet the Senator cast his vote for it. Now, whenever he goes online to tout an achievement, his voters remind him of that betrayal and it's going to be a major point of contention in his upcoming re-election campaign.
Then came the latest budget proposed by Congress that had ridiculous amounts of spending increases to both social program and the military. Many true fiscal conservatives such as Senator Rand Paul raised objections that after years of standing up to excessive spending by the Obama administration, that there was a hypocrisy of raising the deficit by such a large figure.
Speaking of hypocrisy, for a fiscal conservative party, the leader of that party sure does vacation down in Florida a lot. The obscene costs of all that travel, and the fact that he campaigned on not leaving the White House often is seen a huge betrayal by the American people.
Trump, the Offender
In the past year, keeping track of the amount of people that Trump has offended has been difficult. From his own party, he has attacked Senator John McCain multiple times and disparaged Jeff Flake. He continues to use racial slurs against Elizabeth Warren while picking a fight with Oprah Winfrey for no reason. He continues with childish nicknames against opposition such as Adam Schiff, James Comey and Chuck Schumer.
He allowed the Keystone Pipeline and Dakota Pipeline to continue while rolling back protections on federal lands key to Native Americans. While claiming to be a friend to the LGBT community, he attempted to ban transgendered Americans from serving in the military and had Jeff Sessions write a brief in support of the company that discriminated against a gay couple in Oregon.
He continues to pick fights with black sports figures and leagues where civil rights concerns are raised. There is also a genuine belief that Puerto Rico and California are not getting the same aid response in terms of timing and resources that heavily conservative Florida and Texas received.
Congress, the Enabler
With all the childish and unstable antics of the current sitting President, many voters feel like Congress has not done enough to check Mr. Trump. The GOP, with their majorities in both houses, are perceived as enablers. The appearance is that they won't stand up to him because his base is so loyal and they fear offending them.
Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell are seen as 'yes-men' to the whims of whatever Trump proposes, no matter how outlandish. Many conservative politicians are going to get tied to Trump in a very negative way.
As Trump continues to back candidates, and those candidates lose elections such as Roy Moore in Alabama, there will be a growing concern of what line to toe in regards to this President.
The courts and the media have been the major check to bad Trump policies and hires. Without the media bringing up the Michael Flynn issue or the Rob Porter story, both of those flawed hires would be in their positions and cause for espionage concerns. The GOP investigation into Russian meddling have only furthered this perception that they are worthless as a check on this administration.
Congress, the Inept
One thing that actually helped the GOP, was the failed shutdown. The perception was that the Democrats tried to shutdown the government to assist illegals and then caved right away when they failed.
Neither why they did it or the fact that they had no spine in holding out for just one day perceived them in a positive light. No citizen likes a shutdown, and this one was squarely on the Democrats.
How do things currently stand? The GOP has a 51-47 edge, with two Independents. The House is 238-193 in favor of the Republicans. The likely scenario this November is that the GOP is going to lose the Senate and a bunch of seats in the House of Representatives. If they lose control of the House too, that is going to spell trouble for this administration. A Democratic Congress willing to stand up to Trump is going to bring his presidency to a screeching halt. What happens from there is going to be very interesting.
Leslie McCowen from Cape Cod, USA on April 25, 2018:
Jimmy carter was done in by the October surprise. Another example of right wing skullduggery.....and I do mean skull and bones.
Hillary Clinton is not evil. She didn’t tell her supporters to knock the crap out of people. Didn’t refuse to release her tax returns. And didn’t hint at shooting Trumpets if he won.
We were subject to a cyber war. And some dummies got HAD. It’s only now Jones is admitting pizzagate was a lie. A republican ON the Benghazi committee admitted the whole thing was to hurt Clinton politically.
Putin had scores of bots and fingers spreading lies , and Cambridge Analytica ran the Trump campaign. Notorious Hillary haters, both Mercer’s and Putin.
And there is no bipartisanship.
Trump Insults Democrats every day.
And no democrats were invited to the state dinner with macron.
They only like to cry bipartisan when we have a dem prez. They don’t want it, they want complete control, like they have now.
And the ACA was a godsend. No wonder gop is destroying it, too.
We have the United States of Republicans. And they will do whatever it takes to keep it that way. Lie, cheat and steal.
Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on April 25, 2018:
The American people voted for the lesser of two evils.
Just as in the past, the sitting president has an overwhelming odds to win.
Only Jimmy Carter, was so bad, even democrats wanted him out.
The House and Senate will stay in GOP hands.
Power in the hands of one party is bad in general.
It leads to abuse and no bipartisanship.
That was exactly how we ended up with the ACA or Obamacare - a disaster of a bill.
Leslie McCowen from Cape Cod, USA on March 02, 2018:
Don't forget, they have 5-4 Supreme Court, too......
See why they had to steal a seat?
Same way as they stole the 2016 election.
Since the federal gvt isn't taking hacking seriously, the state's better be.
We need PAPER ballots, many many polling places, early voting, and eyes watching.
And when some kook in line tells you "You know the democrat is into spirit cooking and eating babies".....
Ask them where they got that info.
Because ooooh, mr conspiracy himself, Alex Jones, under accusation of sexual harassment, said, " i dont do news, its entertainment"
.........so all this stuff out there painting Clinton as evil witch satanic goddess.....is his bull. Assange's bull. Russshhhhhh's bull. Hannity's bull. And most of all, Vladimir Putin's bull. He Sure got back at Hillary.....in spades.
And people believe it because they want to.
And these carnival barkers get rich selling hate. Hate. Hate.
And Putin is a multi billionaire.
Watch out, good honest people are fodder to these fools.
Oh, and how about you actually GO ON A CANDIDATE'S WEBSITE AND SEE FOR YOURSELF WHAT THEY HAVE TO SAY.
And I know you believe Soros paid all the Trump accusers...but guess what? There are court documents.
And it's amazing to me it's not an issue, when it dominated Bill Clintons whole 8 years.
The media is right wing. Clearly.
Anything they say....check it twice.
Ask the candidate. Question the tv and radio pundits!!!
Putin has made us look like fools. At least Europe is on to him....our Republican controlled gvt denies his meddling even exists, or matters.
Smh. And IMO
Daniel Gottlob on March 01, 2018:
Generally, folks don't like one party controlling both chambers and the executive branch at the same time but I think it is way too early to give it much credence. Hillary Clinton was also "supposed" to win the election and Democrats were going to sweep.
Leslie McCowen from Cape Cod, USA on March 01, 2018:
Putin is emboldened because of Trump. Traitor is a good word :
JOC (author) from Syracuse, NY on February 28, 2018:
Ridiculous Statement Example: 'There is no need to look to any foreign power on influencing our elections, we only have to look at Hillary Clinton and Obama.'
Russia influenced the last election against Clinton. Every head of our intelligence services agrees.
As for the article you posted, that simply says that Trump signed the bill into law. He HAD to because the vote was so large that Congress would have overridden his veto. What has he done to enforce the sanctions in that bill - nothing. That's the point, he's protecting his Russia friends that helped swing the election his way.
Brad on February 28, 2018:
Washington (CNN)President Donald Trump signed into law Wednesday morning legislation that levies new sanctions against Russia and restricts Trump's own ability to ease sanctions in place against Moscow.
The bill is one of the first major pieces of legislation that was sent to Trump's desk, and it represents a rebuke of the President by giving Congress new veto power to block him from removing Russia sanctions.
The White House announced the signing shortly after 11 a.m. ET, saying the bill includes "a number of clearly unconstitutional provisions" that "purport to displace the President's exclusive constitutional authority to recognize foreign governments, including their territorial bounds."
Russia's Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev reacted strongly to the bill's signing, saying it showed a "fully-fledged trade war (has been) declared against Russia" and that "the Trump administration demonstrated complete impotence, in the most humiliating manner, transferring executive powers to Congress."
Russia sanctions: What you need to know
Putin: Claims of election interference are 'anti-Russia hysteria'
Putin: Claims of election interference are 'anti-Russia hysteria' 01:33
In a statement, Trump expressed his own doubts about the legislation: "The bill remains seriously flawed -- particularly because it encroaches on the executive branch's authority to negotiate."
"Congress could not even negotiate a health care bill after seven years of talking. By limiting the executive's flexibility, this bill makes it harder for the United States to strike good deals for the American people, and will drive China, Russia, and North Korea much closer together," he said in a statement.
He ended the statement by saying: "I built a truly great company worth many billions of dollars. That is a big part of the reason I was elected. As President, I can make far better deals with foreign countries than Congress."
Even before Trump signed the bill, the measure prompted Russian President Vladimir Putin to retaliate against the US over the new sanctions, which Congress levied over alleged Russian interference in the 2016 US election, as well as Russia's annexation of Crimea and aggression in Syria.
In a Facebook post Wednesday, Medvedev said any hope of improved relations between Washington and the Kremlin had "ended," adding he thought Trump was an "incompetent player (who) must be eliminated."
Medvedev predicted future relations between Russia and the US "will be extremely tense, regardless of the Congress line up or the personality of the President," and threatened to escalate the matter to international courts.
Cillizza: Trump's Russia statement proves he doesn't understand separation of powers
Brad on February 28, 2018:
The only way that we will know whether my comments are ridiculous is if you could tell us why they are ridiculous.
My point on the Democrats is that they put Illegal Aliens and unvetted ME refugees. many of whom are convicted felons INSTEAD of working for the American People and Legal Immigrants. They also make sanctuaries for these convicted felons, jeopardizing the public safety.
Also flying in millions of these unvetted refugees and setting them up in America doesn't protect the American people. And it is very expensive taking care of these refugees. Refugees that the terrorists have boasted they will infiltrate.
If I make a point and you don't counterpoint, as you did here, then what is the value of your comment? If your comments are meaningful then you should be able to share why it is meaningful. Instead you make a blanket opinion that goes personal to me or anyone that doesn't agree with you.
If you want uncontested silence on your articles, then as I have mentioned to others that have your same attitude, don't include a comment box. Or if you just want to sing to the choir then say that. I won't comment then.
JOC (author) from Syracuse, NY on February 28, 2018:
If you could please post any factual information backing up how Trump is enforcing sanctions that Congress passed, I'll be impressed. Or even when Trump admitted that it was the Russians who meddled in the election, that might be a good start.
I can understand your perception that the Democrats stand for illegals. They are fighting for the dreamers, kids brought here without choice who have grown up in American society. And that shutdown painted them in a bad light. I'll concede that point. I won't argue policy with you, there's so many differences that it would waste my entire day listing them out individually. Plus, it's not like you're the type of person who is going to be swayed away from your own policy preferences, so what's really the point going down that avenue.
You continue to be hung up on this point and counterpoint statement I made in a comment on your story. I stated that our differences might lead to articles, not that I intended to answer every ridiculous thing you say in the comments section of every post from there to eternity. If you're going to go all Devin Nunes or Glenn Haab and leave out important words that change the meaning of an important thought, I'm just going to begin deleting your comments for the inaccuracy that they are.
Brad on February 28, 2018:
Once again you got it wrong, president Trump is enforcing the Russian sanctions even more so than Obama who did little.
Is that your only response,
I didn't even mention the Russian Sanctions, What about all the other things in my comment.
Whatever happened to our point and counter point?
Why Democrat? Because of what they stand for? The party of that chooses the Illegal Alien over the American Citizen, the Legal Immigrant, and the Country.
JOC (author) from Syracuse, NY on February 28, 2018:
Why Democrat? President Bone Spurs refuses to enforce penalties on Russian election meddling and the GOP Congress does nothing. That's borderline treason, so the American people will elect representatives that will hold him accountable to the laws they pass.
Leslie McCowen from Cape Cod, USA on February 28, 2018:
Pascale did an interview.......said Facebook got Trump elected. "Twitter is how he communicates, Facebook is the car that drove him in"
Now it turns out that Facebook charged Hillary 2 times more for ads than trump.
Jill Stein says media gave Trump 6 billion $ worth of free airtime, 3 times that of Hillary.
And I will bet 1 person out of 100,000 actually read her plans....
But they heard Crooked Hillary everyday.
The word "rubes" comes to mind.
Over and out.
Brad on February 27, 2018:
Why would the republicans lose any seat?
What have the democrats done in the last year, or in the last 9 years? Nothing beneficial to the country.
With people like Pelosi, Maxine Waters, Adam Schiff, Chuck Schumer and Elizabeth Warren how could people other than those in CA, IL, and NY vote Democrat.
Democrats are the party of the Illegal Alien, and they have forsaken the American Citizen and legal immigrant.
The Democrats have the same platform that Hillary had, We no likely Trump. It didn't work then and it won't work this election.
We will see what the IG has to say about his investigation?
What over 2 years of investigating Trump and Russia they have found nothing on Trump. And Obama and his executive branch were spying on Trump for a year, and into his presidency, and they found nothing.
While the investigations have found out a lot about the nefarious dealings of Hillary, Podesta, DNC, DOJ, FBI, CIA, NSA and Obama.
There is no need to look to any foreign power on influencing our elections, we only have to look at Hillary Clinton and Obama.
Why would anyone vote Democrat?
Leslie McCowen from Cape Cod, USA on February 27, 2018:
Unless the Russian meddling is addressed, gop will win this, too. It is now shown that Facebook charged Clinton 2 times as much for ads as Trump.....Zuckerberg got funding from Russia. Twitter.....funny I don’t see #releasethememo about Dem memo, which was released quite as a feather. Hannity is actvively working with Russian trolls to undermine Muellers probe....their grip is everywhere.
And I am one who believes the election was stolen. The exit polls were not wrong. The current polls are not wrong. America does not want what this GOP is selling. It’s a small minority that support Trump.
But they have powerful and dishonest friends....and Trumpublicans will do anything to win.
We had better stop the criminal activity behind our elections, or it happens again.