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The Israeli Dilemma: Iranian Nukes

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Since Biden has been in the White House, he has tried to get Iran back to the nuclear peace accords that President Trump withdrew from. Trump did the right thing to pull the US out of it since the Iranians were constantly cheating before. It was just a placebo to think Iran was still not trying to enrich enough uranium to 90%. Biden hoped that getting Iran back into the accords could, at best, delay them getting a bomb by a few years. That is not much consolation because the end result still is the same. However, Iran still has not complied despite Biden's concessions trying to lure them to adhere to the original agreement.

At The Crossroads

With so many wasted years now passed, the Israelis and West are at the crossroads and redline. At the recent UN conference, Israel revealed that their intelligence have located another three covert enrichment sites within Iran previously not known. In trying to rally the US and any others, the Israelis noted that for the first time Iran is within a month or more of acquiring its first nuclear bomb, if estimates are correct. The PM Bennett stated that Israel will not allow this to happen even if other countries are willing to accept the status quo. He was referring to Biden's position, although, he does support the Israeli position. In his address in the UN, he stated that, "words do not stop centrifuges from running", alluding to how the Iranians have just stalled in the talks to buy time. They have done this very successfully and now they are within 30-90 days of enriching enough for a nuclear bomb.

In a rare public display of unity, the commanders of the IAF and IDF, echo the same sentiment as their PM, stating that all agree that it is time for some sort of pre-emptive airstrike must happen within the coming weeks to stop them. Apparently Israel already has some sort of plan, as the IAF commander revealed:

"The IDF must function in several levels to deal a powerful multi-dimensional blow for eradicating pinpointed Iran’s capabilities. Spearheaded by air strikes, it must use powerful, high precision bombs, cyber, and electronic warfare for operations on land and sea".

The other dilemma has is that Israel has never publicly announced that they have nuclear weapons mounted on their missiles. Israel is thought to have at least 200 such bombs and now the PM is considering to go public with this in an effort to thwart the few Iranian bombs that will be coming (assuming Israel does not attack). This would ensure mutual devastation should Iran or its proxies use nuclear weapons to attack Israel. In a sense, it would create a mini "cold war" deterrence much like it was\is between the USA and Russia. It would be a smart strategy to deter Iran.

As for an Israeli strike, this was first proposed in 2005, when Iran had their facilities above ground, not now where they are deep underground. The time is fast approaching for Israel to act since negotiation has been pointless. It seems their decision makers have little choice if anything is going prevent Iran with the bomb.

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It seems the attack is inevitable now and is just a question of when and then the Middle East will explode once again.


perrya (author) on October 01, 2021:

Well, it is true that in 2005, the targets in Iran were above ground and president Bush did nothing and neither did the Israelis. Then, Obama came and the targets still could be had but Iran got a deal that stalled it but just for 10 years, then Trump walked away and tried to use sanctions, which still did not work. By now, the targets were well underground. Now, Biden is too preoccupied and probably have signaled to Israel, just do it, but you are on your own.

MG Singh emge from Singapore on October 01, 2021:

I have already written that is Israel missed the bus ten years or maybe 12 years back. You will remember how President Johnson allowed China to go nuclear in 1963/64 when a simple strike by B-52s would have finished the Chinese program as Russia and China had broken and China had no strategic weapons. Americans are paying for the folly of Johnson adults and I don't know who is going to pay for the Iranian folly.

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