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The Great Coronavirus Scare of 2020

Scientific study unlocks the secrets of the universe, however it's being used to today influence public opinion, sometimes incorrectly.

the-great-coronavirus-scare

Each day the world is inundated with new stories about the latest potential pandemic, commonly known as the Coronavirus. What started in China, sometime in December 2019, has spread to at least a dozen countries and has led to fatalities and numerous quarantines. It’s currently being hyped by the global media and financial markets across the world are falling at record levels. But, when we look deeper into the reports, the hype just doesn’t seem to match the actual results.

What We Know So Far

Here’s what we know about the virus. It is from the SARS family, but less deadly. SARS stands for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome. It’s a serious form of pneumonia, which causes severe respiratory distress, difficulty breathing, and in some cases can lead to death. Coronavirus (COVID-19) is a respiratory illness that causes fever, coughing, and shortness of breath. To date there have been deaths, but others have none or only mild symptoms. The scientific community has designated the virus as a betacoronavirus, which means it originated with bats. The MERS Virus (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) that originated in Saudi Arabia in 2012 also had the same designation.

The Coronavirus is less deadly than similar viruses. The mortality rate from the current outbreak ranges from 0.5% to 2% depending on where you are at. This range is significantly lower than the mortality rate from the 2002 SARS outbreak (9.5%) and significantly lower than the 2012 SARS outbreak (34.4%). The Flu has a mortality rate of 2 deaths per 100,000 cases in America, according to the CDC. At the time of this publishing, there have been 16 confirmed cases in the United States and zero fatalities. As of February 26, 2020, there were a total of 81,109 cases of coronavirus worldwide, with 78,191 coming from China, the source of the virus. Also as of that same date, there have been 2,762 deaths worldwide. Of those deaths, 2,718 were from China and 44 in other nations.

Coronavirus Distribution as of February 26th, 2020

No Vaccine Yet...

At the time of publishing, no vaccine has been shown to be effective. There are private companies across the world working 24-hours a day to develop a vaccine. Typically making a vaccine takes years, but with so many technological advances in the medical field, it’s conceivable that this one could come within months or weeks. The genetic sequence is publically available and almost every major lab is working on it. The perceived financial gain for whomever can successfully implement a vaccine will be tremendous; one of the main reasons for the push to be first to market.

The Center For Disease Control has a Wealth of Information

The CDC has published information on their website to provide information to anyone who needs it. The fact that this disease has caused deaths and sustained person-to-person spread is concerning. These factors meet two of the criteria of a pandemic. There is mild panic in some areas of the United States due mostly to the media overstating the effects and giving opinions, rather than hard facts. The following is a direct quote from the CDC website on February 27th, 2020.

“For the general American public, who are unlikely to be exposed to this virus at this time, the immediate health risk from COVID-19 is considered low.”

Conclusion

If you have concerns, especially if you’ve travelled outside of the country, please consult the CDC website or your physician immediately. There are many places to find guidelines for ‘best practices’ during cold and flu season, which can offer a good basis of hygiene habits to maintain during this event.

The numbers simply don’t add up to the level that the media is presenting them.

References

The following sources were used in this article.

U.S. National Library of Medicine

https://medlineplus.gov/ency/article/007768.htm

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/index.html

CDC – Mortality Rates from Influenza

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/flu.htm

CDC – Coronavirus Situation Summary

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html

This content is for informational purposes only and does not substitute for formal and individualized diagnosis, prognosis, treatment, prescription, and/or dietary advice from a licensed medical professional. Do not stop or alter your current course of treatment. If pregnant or nursing, consult with a qualified provider on an individual basis. Seek immediate help if you are experiencing a medical emergency.

© 2020 Ralph Schwartz

Comments

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 19, 2020:

by the way, since I have been home this few weeks, I have written quite a few other articles related to this crisis...

You can check them out at my home page. Most recent articles are on top...

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 19, 2020:

Scott, maybe you haven't read some of my other articles of recently.

Here is one such article that explains what I am doing in 2020 -

https://hubpages.com/politics/What-I-Am-Doing-in-A...

Scott Belford from Keystone Heights, FL on March 19, 2020:

Speaking of unAmerican Jack, Exactly what have you done for it other than try to destroy everything good this nation stands for. It seems you have just taken and not contributed a damn thing as well as being blind as a bat with your head stuck someplace you can't see.

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 19, 2020:

The dishonesty of people with regard to this crisis is mind boggling.

Here we have a Commander in Chief doing all he can and having daily briefings and invoking old Production Act, and passing bipartisan stimulus bills and reaching out to Corp. to chip in yet we have people like Scott complaining...because it is Trump sitting in the White House.

Scott, you are unAmerican and you are part of the problem and not the solution. To use this crisis as a political gain in the words of Rahm Emmanuel - never let a crisis go to waste... is disgusting.

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 19, 2020:

scott, your second sentence said it all. No need to read the rest. It was Bush's fault.

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 19, 2020:

kathleen, you do realize politico is not a trusted media site...they are biased. if you don't know what that means, please look it up. It is my contention that one of the reason our country is so divided is the corrupt media. We have always had differences of opinion and policies, but a corrupt media willing to lie and distort and spin the news is what is different now. people like me don't trust the news any more. you never know when it is fake and when it is real.

A recent example is how the media reported that Trump said the coronavirus is a hoax. It was repeated again and again by CNN.

Go look it up? there are many articles disproving this and real transcripts and videos that show exactly what Trump said...go look it up and make up your own mind.

Kathleen Cochran from Atlanta, Georgia on March 19, 2020:

"Trump depleted the government of scientific expertise and did little to heed warnings to prepare for a pandemic. He blocked Congress from conducting meaningful oversight. He repeatedly proposed cutting public health and medical research. The constant turnover and reliance on “acting” officials eroded competence. His reckless stimulus legislation during an economic boom and his badgering of the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates left few fiscal and monetary tools to stop the ongoing economic panic. His constant stream of falsehoods misled the nation about the threat of the virus and contributed to a delayed, haphazard response. His administration badly misjudged the impact of the virus and was claiming until just a couple of weeks ago that it would require no additional government spending." Politico

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 19, 2020:

scott, I have to retract one of my previous comment about Monday morning quarterbacking. What you are doing is not Monday but during the first quarter, using a football analogy. While we are still in the early phase of this crisis, you are telling the coach he is incompetent and making bad calls...and bad plays...

We don't know how the game will end but you are already claiming the game is lost. when clearly, we won't lose. By the end of the game, we will win and the only debate will be how bad the other side loose, and whether we go to overtime if the game is extended.

Is there any doubt that we will win this fight?

Scott Belford from Keystone Heights, FL on March 19, 2020:

NO Jack, the exact same thing DID NOT happen under Obama - that is right-wing media Fake News.

Yes, it did happen under Bush, but that had more to do with Bush's administration being unprepared and acting slowly than Bush personally making things worse. Here Trump is personally making things worse AND he is partly responsible for being unprepared such as shutting down the NSC Pandemic Office.

AND it is Very Much about Trump if he is making things Worse - which he seems to be Again. More to that story -

"But he later tweeted that he only signed the act "should we need to invoke it in a worst case scenario in the future. Hopefully there will be no need."

The statement caused confusion, undermined Trump's earlier adoption of a military-style campaign and raised fresh questions over whether he was still trying to downplay the possible impact of the virus on the United States.

"It was so disassociated from what he said this morning at the press conference and what he said to us," said Dr. David Benton, a nursing industry representative who was at a meeting with Trump on Wednesday at which the President talked of "scaling up" medical supplies."

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 19, 2020:

scott, it is not about Trump. To prove it, if the exact same thing happened under Obama, you would be praising his every move and excusing his every failure.

This has happened once before under Bush for Katrina, go look it up, it was not that long ago and you and I lived through that. Hurricane Sandy under Obama administration was a different story.

The Logician from now on on March 19, 2020:

Trump, Trump, Trump - he lives in your brain rent free! What a mess in there!

Scott Belford from Keystone Heights, FL on March 19, 2020:

Actually the culprit is the local gov't in Wuhan. After pulling a Trump for the first few weeks the federal gov't came in and took over (sort of the reverse in the US where governors and local officials are taking the lead). After that, information started to flow and actions taken.

Here is why Trump is such a terrible president -

"Only days after dismissing the coronavirus threat as a distraction, he's now assumed the title of a resolute war time president fighting an "invisible enemy" while promising to rally the nation behind him in pursuit of "total victory."

Trump's new posture is in response to a crisis that is worsening by the hour and appears to be partly designed to cover up the administration's failures in distributing testing kits that have might help authorities slow the virus' advance.

'And it is already being undermined by his own actions. He's casting doubt over whether he will actually implement a move to invoke the Defense Production Act' (WHY is he doing that??) -- that he signed on Wednesday and that gives him authority to order industry to work towards homeland defense and national goals. In this case, it could speed the production of badly needed ventilators, masks and other supplies for hospital workers.

Trump's initial decision was welcomed by state governors and representatives for frontline medical workers who fear being exposed to the virus due to shortages of protective equipment."

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 18, 2020:

Scott, Here is timeline of the Wuhan virus -

https://www.axios.com/timeline-the-early-days-of-c...

It is clear from this timeline the culprit for the delay is the Chinese Government.

Scott Belford from Keystone Heights, FL on March 18, 2020:

No Jack, they don't want people to die. BUT, their stupidity is leading to that outcome.

You are reacting to global warming the same way you are reacting to the pandemic - making light of it. At least somebody finally kicked Trump in the ass hard enough that it got his attention for a few days. He is now doing the things he should have done months ago when all of you were praising him about how great a job he was doing in minimizing the danger. (I don't expect him to keep it up because it makes him look bad - like seeing all of the stock market gains since he took office wiped out.)

I only heard that Bush thing from your side, not mine.

The Logician from now on on March 18, 2020:

Trump, Trump, Trump!!

Trump lives in Scott’s mind...RENT FREE!

Are you harbouring resentment for someone, Scott?

Are you holding onto something a person said YEARS ago, still upset about it?

Do you spend a lot of time thinking about Trump, (obviously that’s all you think about) did he hurt you?

If any of these apply to you then you are wasting valuable brain space on something that does not serve you.

You are letting this person, Trump, live rent-free in your brain and all they’re doing is making mess and destroying the place!

Do you have strong desire to be unhealthy by letting others take up space in your mind?

To have your thoughts invaded by a messy renter who you allow to squat in your brain and take up residence there?

For FREE!

You have given Trump all the power over you.

The truth is he has moved on and he doesn’t even know that you’re giving him any thought.

Keep messing up your mind Scott. You are only hurting yourself letting Trump live in your brain rent free, he doesn’t even know you exist.

Trump living rent free in your brain - the definition of Trump Derangement Syndrome!

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 18, 2020:

So Scott, in your mind, the Trump people just want people to die...is that it?

Why are you so stubborn to harp on this when everyone, should be focused on solving this problem instead of placing blame?

It is like Katrina all over again. It was all Bush's fault because he hates black people... Never let a crisis goes to waste. The MO of the Democratic party.

Scott Belford from Keystone Heights, FL on March 18, 2020:

"On January 17, WHO published a protocol from German researchers with the instructions necessary for any country to manufacture coronavirus tests."

JANUARY 17!!! WHY did Trump ignore this?? Thousands of lives could have been saved!

Scott Belford from Keystone Heights, FL on March 18, 2020:

Hey Jack, how are you going to justify Trump's trillion dollar deficits and burgeoning public debt after spending 6 years trashing Obama for doing somewhat less?

What I go to bed cursing (and you rejoicing) is the damage Trump has done to this once great nation. He has effectively turned us into a third world dictatorship - a rich one, yes - but with the same lack of abiding by the law as, say Castro.

The Logician from now on on March 17, 2020:

TDScott, now the reaper.

Jack, you wonder why all Scott talks about is hatred for Trump? It’s because Trump is in his head. Trump dwells there. I bet he goes to bed cursing Trump and wakes up with the first thing on his mind being Trump! He thinks his rants hurt Trump while all he is doing is enforcing Trump’s occupation of his every thought.

Trump owns his mind, dwells in it night and day and he can’t stand it!

Scott Belford from Keystone Heights, FL on March 17, 2020:

Those who know - professional mental health experts, many of them, - say he is dangerously mentally ill. I will definitely believe them over you who know nothing about it.

I bet you even believe what Trump said a little bit ago "I thought it was a pandemic before it was called a pandemic."

It is you who must be crazy to believe a pathological liar like that. Sad, you seem like a smart guy.

BTW, your non-event just had another 1700+ cases today and 42 more deaths. I imagine you will be calling that Fake News.

The Logician from now on on March 17, 2020:

You nailed it Jack. He is crazy as a bat.

Just look at his answer about his “god”

It’s like talking to Biden lol

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 17, 2020:

scott, your the one that is crazy if you think our President is mentally ill.

Our system of government is not perfect but it is the best human kind has invented. It has served us very well past 230 years.

We have elections every 4 years to pick a leader. Some were great and some so so and some even a disaster like Carter. We never failed as a country. Our system of check and balance prevent a tyrant or a king.

Scott Belford from Keystone Heights, FL on March 17, 2020:

Now you understand, Jack.

And T - what proof do I have? The same proof you do, except mine is not self-contradictory.

Demas W Jasper from Today's America and The World Beyond on March 17, 2020:

I am grateful for your Hub's "References" which can provide access to current information on this virus. That was very thoughtful. Thanks.

The Logician from now on on March 17, 2020:

OK Scott, please explain YOUR make believe god that you believe in. What Is your proof he exists? Just what do you base your belief in your make believe god on?

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 17, 2020:

Scott, at least you are honest in what you believe. We have a mental case in the White House with his finger on the nuclear button. Wow, that is reassuring...

Scott Belford from Keystone Heights, FL on March 17, 2020:

No, I don't believe Trump is evil, very few people are evil. But, he is seriously and dangerously mentally ill which leads to all of the evil behavior he exhibits on a daily basis.

Yes, I believe in a god, just not yours.

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 17, 2020:

do you really believe Trump is that evil? God help you. That is if you even believe in a God.

Scott Belford from Keystone Heights, FL on March 17, 2020:

Nobody on my side is monday morning quarterbacking - we been saying Trump is screwing the pooch since February by doing nothing further, downplaying the seriousness, and lying about it. It is your side that has been in denial (many still are) and pooh-poohing the danger.

The only thing I give him credit for is Belatedly (which cost lives) standing up a task force (but only after he closed down the NSC office responsible for handling pandemics back in 2018). It turns out he went through a drill during the transition that covered EXACTLY this situation and, as normal for him, he didn't pay attention to it.

After standing up the task force, however, he then interfered with it by contradicting the experts and confusing people on your side.

Let me ask you this - do you give a murderer credit for doing the right thing and forgive his murders after he confesses he was wrong and stops murdering?

A few days ago I wrote "What does that mean, that means, based on history, we will pass 100,000 cases around Apr 8. We shall see. Without mitigation, we should pass 1,000,000 cases around Aug 15."

Now that we have jumped from 500 new cases a day to almost 1,000 that has changed to:

100,000 cases - April 4

1,000,000 cases - April 16

4,000,000 cases (when social distancing becomes ineffective) - April 22

100 deaths - today

1,000 deaths - April 2

10,000 deaths - April 15

100,000 deaths - April 28

We will see how these change over time.

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 16, 2020:

Scott, easy to monday morning quarterback. Do you give any credit for the other things he has done? in recent week?

Scott Belford from Keystone Heights, FL on March 16, 2020:

Yes, and he did it relatively quickly. He also allowed evacuating Americans out of China and quarantined them appropriately. But that is where he stopped doing anything other than trying to minimize the problem.

He refused to accept testing kits from the WHO? Why did he do that? We needed them right away.

Why did he spend until today denying there was a problem?

Why did he wait so long to set up the task force?

Why does he always contradict his experts thereby confusing people like you (I don't listen to him obviously)

Why does did he say these things -

- Jan 22 when asked if there is worry yet about a possible pandemic and Trump replied "“No. Not at all. And we have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.” - WAS THAT True?

- In late Jan, one Tom Frieden, who ran the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for eight years, said the virus will spread and wrote “We need to learn — and fast — about how it spreads,” (one of many to say so) AND what did Trump say?

-- On Jan. 24, he tweeted, “It will all work out well.” (China was showing that to be untrue)

-- On Jan. 28, he retweeted a headline from One America News, an outlet with a history of spreading false conspiracy theories: “Johnson & Johnson to create coronavirus vaccine.” - WHY did he promote a LIE?

-- On Jan. 30, during a speech in Michigan, he said: “We have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five. And those people are all recuperating successfully.” -- THAT wasn't true. (That day the WHO announced there were 7,818 confirmed cases worldwide.

- On Jan 31 Trump took his only early, aggressive action against the virus: He barred most foreigners who had recently visited China from entering the United States. It was a good move.

- On Feb 2: “Coronavirus,” Hannity said. “How concerned are you?”

Trump replied: “Well, we pretty much shut it down coming in from China. " - ANOTHER Lie and there were 14,577 cases worldwide.

Do you see my point? - there are dozens more of these but I don't want to bore you.

BTW, it was Trump who made it a political issue; he makes Everything political.

No, Trump has NOT done the best as anyone in his position would; not even close!

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 16, 2020:

If he did that you would some other thing to criticize him on. Am I right?

Did you gave him credit for shutting down travel from China early?

You are making this a political issue when it is not.

Trump is doing his best as anyone in that position would. This virus is new and they are still learning and doing what needs to be done. Dr. Faucci is standing right next to him.

Scott Belford from Keystone Heights, FL on March 16, 2020:

Solutions? He is finally being forced to do the things he refused to do from the beginning. One thing he still could do is shut up and let people who know what they are talking about - talk. Stop saying things they immediately have to fix and stop contradicting things they have already said. In other words, STOP confusing the nation.

He could stop making things worse by making decisions from his gut (which has consistently failed him).

The "solutions" have been staring him in the face for two months now, but he was too arrogant, too narcissistic, too dumb to institute what was needed then. He is, now being forced to do those same solutions today AFTER things have gotten way out of hand.

Scott Belford from Keystone Heights, FL on March 16, 2020:

It looks like today, maybe, Trump is finally getting how serious this pandemic is. He finally admitted he doesn't have control over the virus, contrary to the claim he made yesterday. He finally admitted a recession is likely. He finally admitted the pandemic is NOT going to be over quickly like he has been lying to the public about for the last two months.

He STILL isn't admitting that a vaccine is 12 to 18 months off.

I bet tomorrow, however, he will forget all of that and go back to minimizing the seriousness of the pandemic.

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 16, 2020:

http://www.usmessageboard.com/threads/how-quickly-...

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 15, 2020:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.ht...

Scott Belford from Keystone Heights, FL on March 15, 2020:

Was there a different conference on Friday? Those quotes were from the conference to which you are referring and which Dr. Fauci was at. Was he at another conference?

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 15, 2020:

what about comment on what was announced at the news conference on Friday? with Dr. Faucci present...

Scott Belford from Keystone Heights, FL on March 15, 2020:

On the positive side, it was orders of magnitude better than the first one (beyond him shaking hands with everybody after Fauci said not to). But let's take it piece by piece.

"We’ve been working very hard on this. We’ve made tremendous progress. " - Yes they have and no they haven't - still relatively few tests out there after promising millions over a week ago.

"When you compare what we’ve done to other areas of the world, it’s pretty incredible. " - He is right, the rest of the world has done a much better job. Especially Japan, South Korea, and Italy.

"A lot of that had to do with the early designation and the closing of the borders." - Exactly WHAT borders did he close? He limited flights from China and that is about it until he belatedly (after the cow was out of the barn) shut off flights to and from Europe.

"And, as you know, Europe was just designated as the hotspot right now, and we closed that border a while ago. " - NO HE didn't. He closed it to people at midnight that night. He let commodities to continue to flow which can carry the virus on it.

"But through a very collective action and shared sacrifice and national determination, we will overcome the threat of the virus." - ISN'T True that the only real action being taken right now is by the states and communities? At the federal level, the problem they continue to have is sending out unclear guidance and mixed messaging because what Trump says is often at odds with what the scientists say.

"I also announced Wednesday night, following the advice of our medical professionals who are doing a tremendous job " - YES, the medical professionals are doing a wonderful job.

"A number of the people behind me said that that saved a lot of lives, that early designation." - What designation? If he had declared a national emergency back in early February, then he might be right. Because he delayed (and is delaying the testing) he has cost lives.

" We had some very old and obsolete rules that we had to live with. It worked under certain circumstances but not under mass circumstances. They were there for a long time; they were in place for a long time. And we’re breaking them down now. And they’re very usable for certain instances, but not for this." - THIS IS an outright Lie.

"The action I am taking will open up access to up to $50 billion of very importantly — very important and a large amount of money for states and territories and localities in our shared fight against this disease." - YES, that is true.

"In furtherance of the order, I’m urging every state to set up emergency operation centers effective immediately. " - MOST ALREADY have.

"I’m also asking every hospital in this country to activate its emergency preparedness plan so that they can meet the needs of Americans everywhere. " - THEY ARE already doing that under state direction.

"The Secretary of HHS will be able to immediately waive provisions of applicable laws and regulations to give doctors, hospital — all hospitals — and healthcare providers maximum flexibility to respond to the virus and care for patients." - THAT IS a good thing.

"Ten days ago, I brought together the CEOs of commercial labs at the White House and directed them to immediately begin working on a solution to dramatically increase the availability of tests. Other countries have called us and worked with us, and they’re doing similar things or will be doing similar things." - WELL, 30 DAYS AGO the World Health Organization offered America their tests and Trump said NO thanks. We still don't have anywhere enough testing capability.

"As a result of that action, today we’re announcing a new partnership with private sector to vastly increase and accelerate our capacity to test for the coronavirus. " - ACTUALLY the states and private companies have been beating down CDC's door to let them help; only to be rejected until just a few days ago.

"Using federal emergency authorities, the FDA approved a new test for the virus. We did this within hours after receiving the application from Roche — a process that would normally take weeks. " - JUST THINK where we might be and how many people might have lived if Trump had declared a national emergency 30 days ago. In any case, this is wonderful news. (What IS unfortunate is the right-wing media has picked this up and said Roche has developed a vaccine - which id not true)

"At the same time, we’ve been in discussions with pharmacies and retailers to make drive-thru tests available in the critical locations identified by public health professionals. " - SEVERAL states have already started doing this.

"I want to thank Google. Google is helping to develop a website. It’s going to be very quickly done, unlike websites of the past, to determine whether a test is warranted and to facilitate testing at a nearby convenient location." - THE LIE here is that Google has said it is NOT going to be done very quickly.

"Google has 1,700 engineers working on this right now. They’ve made tremendous progress. " - NO THEY don't

Dr. Brix said I think you know — at the beginning of this epidemic, HHS, through CDC, proactively developed an assay built on the existing flu surveillance system. That surveillance system was then converted to diagnostic system." - NO THEY didn't and NO it isn't. Currently, there is NO surveillance system in place; just catch-up testing.

"But last Tuesday, seeing the spread of the virus around the globe, the President realized that our current approach to testing was inadequate to need — to meet the needs of the American public." - THIS AFTER spending a month minimizing the pandemic and calling the Democrats and Media reporting on it a Hoax.

So, that is my unbiased appraisal of his discussion using history as a guide.

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 15, 2020:

Scott,

Just curious, what did you think of the News conference of Trump on Friday 3/13?

Give me your best un-biased opinion.

How did he do? how was his admin. response and future plans as outlined by all the people that spoke including many executives in the private sector.

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 15, 2020:

scott, other then blaming Trump, what is your solution?

What should we be doing that we are not?

Are you the expert? and what is your medical credential?

you are making this a political thing when it is a national health crisis.

It is Rahm Emmanuel who said never let a crisis go to waste...

I guess you subscribe to that theory and practice.

It is like Katrina all over again. Bush was blamed for it when it was a natural disaster...

Scott Belford from Keystone Heights, FL on March 15, 2020:

The vaccine is still 12 to 18 months away according to Dr. Fauci. i am dealing with the scenario now - major lack of testing due to Trump's failed policies. So far coronavirus is proving 1) much MORE infectious than the flu in many different ways and 2) won't necessarily die out in the Spring.

Sugarcoating things that you and Trump do lead to extra dead people.

At the latest rate of growth we will pass 1,000,000 cases on Apr 18 and 1,000 dead on Apr 3. The cases are currently growing at 798 cases A Day.

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 14, 2020:

Scott, your math is flawed because you are looking this from a worst case scenario rather than common sense. In most cases like this, there are many factors including the weather and advances in testing and treatment. They are already testing a vaccine which was developed by Roche...which may have better results than expected.

So, yes, worst case scenario, we are all going to die. Most likely, not.

Scott Belford from Keystone Heights, FL on March 14, 2020:

Show me where my math is flawed after you take into consideration my previous statements that as more testing happens exposing many more infections than Trump wants to admit, that the rate WILL probably come down.

In fact, if you look back, you will find where I put a lower limit of 0.7%, I think, based on South Korean results. But even there, that is 7 times more deadly than the common flu.

But, with the caveats I offered, I work with what is known at the moment and not with what "might" happen.

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 13, 2020:

Scott, you math is flawed....

The idea is if more people tested positive, that means the death rate will decline. It will be less than 2.1%...much less.

Scott Belford from Keystone Heights, FL on March 13, 2020:

Well, in America the mortality rate is officially 48 / 2269 (up another 400 from yesterday) which is 2.1% or 21 times the death rate of the common flu.

Of course, because of Trump's huge failure at testing, we don't know 1) how many people are really infected with coronavirus and 2) how many of the deaths from what people thought was flu, but was really the coronavirus.

So, if the same number of people catch the more contagious coronavirus that caught the flu last year, that would mean 745,000 deaths. Now, do I believe it is that high? No. But I would not be surprised if it doesn't surpass 100,000 before it is all over.

If, however, people and governments take the proper precautions - which they don't do for the flu - then maybe the infections can be kept well below 35.5 million.

Just for fun I approximated a simple logistics function that describes the current case increase. It is y = 7.1156e0.1823x where "x" = days since Feb 15, 2020.

What does that mean, that means, based on history, we will pass 100,000 cases around Apr 8. We shall see.

Without mitigation, we should pass 1,000,000 cases around Aug 15.

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 13, 2020:

So how many deaths? how many cured?

what is percent of death of all that is infected?

How bad do you think it is?

Is it armageddon?

between 1-10, give us your best guess?

I say a 3.

Scott Belford from Keystone Heights, FL on March 13, 2020:

If things are just fine, explain this progression of new cases per day:

Feb 29 - 5 cases per day

Mar 4 - 34 cases per day (a 6-fold increase in 4 days)

Mar 7 - 116 cases per day (a 3-fold increase in 3 days)

Mar 10 - 290 cases per day (a 2.5-fold increase in 3 days)

Mar 12 - 396 cases per day (a 1.4-fold increase in 2 days)

Morning Mar 13 - 135 new cases in a few hours.

Scott Belford from Keystone Heights, FL on March 13, 2020:

From Jack's article - "We will get through this with some common sense, some good judgment, sensible precautions, and bearable sacrifices. The best thing about facing a challenge in America is that the vast majority of Americans will rise to any challenge. "

This is all very good advice - BUT, Trump is NOT exhibiting common sense, nor good judgment; and hasn't been since day one. He wants to make no sacrifices, especially personal ones. To rise to the challenge, Americans need a strong leader to help them and Trump is not that person.

BTW, another 400 cases today.

Let's parse this:

"The virus will not have a chance against us." - That is a LIE. Because of the Trump administration's incompetence and not getting ahead of this virus, hundreds, if not thousands of American will die a needless death.

Because the Trump administration didn't start testing (using the WHO provided kits) IMMEDIATELY, he has left us TOTALLY in the dark and, unlike South Korea, we are playing a poor game of catch up.

Because the Trump administration didn't ban travel from infected countries other than China weeks ago, he allowed many vectors to enter America and now it is too late - the coronavirus is well established among us and spreading like crazy - and we don't know it.

" No nation is more prepared or more resilient than the United States," - Many nations are more prepared than the United States. Even Dr. Fauci said today we are failing.

But, I suspect you think Fauci is a fake.

Now, are we going to lose this battle? No. But it shouldn't be getting as bad as it is going to be - mainly because of Trump's incompetence.

The latest Gallup poll has Conservatives at 37%, Moderates at 35%, and Liberals at 24%

Conservatives have remained constant since 1992. Moderates have decreased since 1992 while Liberals increased.

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 12, 2020:

T, I was being kind. TDS stands for Trump Derangement Syndrome.

The Logician from now on on March 12, 2020:

Jack, the word is not illusion, it’s delusion!

That’s why he ignores my comments, he is in denial that he is sick.

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 12, 2020:

Scott, I heard the same message you heard from Trump last night and I totally agree with Trump. We are not going to loose this battle. I guess it is the same argument with half full or half empty glass.

I see us as half full while you see us as half empty.

Trump's message is exactly what is needed right now. The panic is unfounded and will recover.

Your 70% is a false illusion. By all estimates, America is 40% conservative 30% liberal and 30% moderate and 10% have no clue.

You are the 30% progressive liberal who is anti-Trump.

The rest of America is more balanced and conservative leaning. They know this crisis is not Trump's fault and if anything he is ahead of the curve. Only you and CNN and Pelosi and Schumer will criticize him for just being Trump. The TDS is irrational.

Scott Belford from Keystone Heights, FL on March 12, 2020:

CAN you believe Trump actually said this last night "The virus will not have a chance against us. No nation is more prepared or more resilient than the United States," ?? Talk about pathological lying - he did it again. (America could be resilient, but not under his so-called "leadership".)

Now we are in a Bear Market and the DOW is currently trading at a level below the channel set by Obama. Another 1,500 points and it will be trading below where Obama left it in January 2017.

BTW, Jack, it is 30% of America, the 30% who will vote for Trump in 2020, who thinks like you and 70% think like me.

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 12, 2020:

https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/a-...

The Logician from now on on March 12, 2020:

Scott doesn’t think. He is programmed. It is a result of his love affair with the fake media, namely CNN AND MSNBC, of which he believes everything they say without question-proof he is sick.

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 12, 2020:

T, the coronavirus aside, the real problem is we have about 30% of the population that think like Scott. and 90% of the media hyping it.

The Logician from now on on March 12, 2020:

See, all Scott wants to do is blame Trump for anything or everything - he is sick.

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 12, 2020:

Scott, as a progressive, why don't you practice what you preach? This is a crisis that affects us all. Trump did not cause it? It is on the shoulder of all of us, Democrats and Republicans to face this threat together. Stop with the blame game. This is straight from the Democratic playbook.

"You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it's an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before."

- Rahm Emanuel

Scott Belford from Keystone Heights, FL on March 11, 2020:

Let's parse what Trump just said and says he will do.

1. Ban travel to and from Europe (but not the UK) for 30 days. (Why just Europe since this a pandemic).

2. Propose a payroll tax relief with will do nothing but raise the debt and deficit.

3. Make SBA loans more available for impacted business (a good thing)

4. Defer some tax payments.

What else did I miss?

He did say this is going to be a short-term thing - it will not be. I think he also said the economic impact will be small and short. It won't be, especially given the long-term impacts of the 30-day travel ban.

Scott Belford from Keystone Heights, FL on March 11, 2020:

What I would have liked the Trump administration to HAVE DONE, rather than wait six weeks is:

1. Accepted the testing kits from WHO

2. Ordered the production of several million testing kits to have been mass produced

3. Brought in, rather than keep out, private labs, state labs, and large labs like Quest to run the tests

4. Establish from early on and surveillance protocol to determine the nature of and spread of the virus in the U.S.

5. Not lied and say everything is under control when it is clearly not

6. Not lied and said the cases were going to zero from 15 quickly

7. Not lied and said that a vaccine is 12 to 18 months of and not 3 months.

8. Let the experts do the messaging and not himself or other politicians.

9. Not minimize the problem as he has done and which you obviously have taken to heart.

As Dr. Fauchi said today, it is going to get MUCH worse before it gets better.

Worldwide the number of cases are growing exponentially as testing increases.

Dates of 10-fold increase in cases starting from"

Jan 22 - 590 cases

6 days later, Jan 28 - 6,058

15 days later, Feb 12 - 59,287

27 days later, Mar 10, it doubled to 118,948

at that rate, it will reach 600,000 in a little less than 4 months.

19-fold increases in worldwide deaths starting at

Jan 22 - 17

7 days later, Jan 29 - 170

18 days later, Feb 16 - 1,775

23 days later, Mar 10, it more than doubles - 4,296

expected time to a 10-fold increase to 17,750 - about 3.5 months

How about America?

On Feb 15 - there were 15 cases.

18 days later, Mar 4 - 150 cases

7 days later it grows almost 10-fold again, Mar 11 - 1312 (remember a couple of hours ago I reported just 1100 cases!)

Yeah, you are right, there is no problem at all.

The Logician from now on on March 11, 2020:

Jack, it’s like I said, TDScott cares not about anything except making Trump the villain behind every issue, every policy, everything. Read his comments anywhere on hubpages, his deranged hatred for Trump rules his very being! You can not reason with him and if you do try he’ll lie about whatever you say.

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 11, 2020:

scott, pay attention now...I want you to think about this. What would you want Trump admin. to do right now that they are not already doing? The US has a much larger land mass and a bigger population compared to S. Korea.

All things considered, we are doing pretty well. It is the media and some Democrats who try to use this crisis to score political points. We should not be doing this...During the H1N1 crisis under Obama, nothing like this was done on the Republican side.

Scott Belford from Keystone Heights, FL on March 11, 2020:

It is simple, the lack of response is Trump's fault. If he had been serious about it like South Korea instead of hiding it like China did initially, we would have a much better handle on it.

Now cases are up to 1160. I suspect by Mar 31, it will be between 5,000 and 10,000 and not zero like Trump predicted only a fews days ago. I think he said something like "there are 15 today and soon they will be gone, down to zero." Boy was he wrong. Sorry to burst your echo chamber.

The Logician from now on on March 11, 2020:

Ignore all the other facts Scott and dwell on your looney analysis? I would love to see what you say when it goes out the window. But of course you won’t be found here.

Just the fact that it is so mild to young people they think they just have a cold indicates that your death rate is bogus. The number of people who have had it is probably way higher than just those tested so your death rate as a percentage is meaningless, likely half your estimate.

They only reason you even stick your nose into this issue is so you can twist it to be the fault of Trump - a sick attempt.

Scott Belford from Keystone Heights, FL on March 11, 2020:

Facts still matter, Jack. In 2009, 61 million contracted the H1N1 in the US. Of those 12,500 died (575,000) which means the mortality rate for H1N1 was about 1/2 that of the normal flu.

Since the CDC screwed the pooch on testing in America, we have no idea how widespread it is. But, as I said, South Korea was very aggressive in their testing and their latest mortality rate is 0.8%.

Until the CDC gets their act together, that 0.8% rate is the best we have.

The spread of viruses follows what is called a logistics function and, unless stopped, is basically exponential growth. What little they know about it right now has the transmission factor between 2 and 3. A factor of 2 means that the number of cases basically double every few days.

That seems to be going on because on Feb 15 there were 15 known cases in America. On March 1st, it was 75. On March 5, it was 221. On March 10, it was 994. Today it is at least 1,016. Where are we slowing the spread, Jack?

The scientists in Seattle think there are already 1,500 infected people just there, and that was a few days ago.

You do the math.

By the way, if you are my age, the mortality rate is upwards of 5% or greater.

So Ken, your solution, since it is less than 1% is to what, do nothing?

The Logician from now on on March 11, 2020:

Flu deaths, auto deaths, on average, 130 Americans die every day from an opioid overdose. Every day! Why hasn’t the media ever fear mongered these deaths like they are the coronavirus?

This media hype is totally absurd. They never put the virus in perspective! People under 50 do not die from it, it’s so mild young people don’t even know if they have it. This is what the surgeon general just said on TV.

The Logician from now on on March 11, 2020:

Highly irrational, or more succinctly a load of crapola. :-)

Ken Burgess from Florida on March 11, 2020:

Scott put some interesting (though hypothetical) numbers out there.

So lets consider that 'worst case' scenario he presents.

In 2020, an estimated 607,000 people will die of cancer in the United States.

About 647,000 Americans die from heart disease each year, that's 1 in every 4 deaths.

160,000 Americans die as a result of an accident, and unintentional household injury makes up 75% of those deaths.

So, such panic over something that is expected to have a less than 1% fatality rate, and that those deaths so far have been almost exclusively to those in health risk categories over the age of 60, seems highly irrational.

The Logician from now on on March 11, 2020:

Jack, Return to normal!

Then what other BS do you think Trump Derangement Syndrome Scott will come up with to blame Trump?

The one reason we have remained in a bull market for so long is interest rates. Now they are going down again to historic lows. Ask yourself Where will anyone be able to put their money to even keep pace with inflation? There will only be one place, the stock market, but you won’t see the fake news media even hinting at that. Historically low rates will keep the stock market the best bet for everyone recession or not.

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 11, 2020:

Yes, interesting indeed.

The articles fail to mention how the US slowed the spread early by stopping travel from the affected area of China, to the US while Italy did not.

That is the primary reason why Italy has seen a dramatic increase of cases while we have not. By percent of population, it is not even close.

We have 330 million people and only 1000 cases while Italy has 60 million people with 10,000 cases, according to the latest stats.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.htm.../bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

At the time, some have politicized this by saying it was racist for Trump to stop the travel from China...

Now, it has been proven the correct policy.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/02/02/ch...

With regard to the economic impact, I think our reaction to this virus is over blown. It is a serious threat but not the worst by any measure.

For example, the H1N1 flu pandemic in 2009-2010 was far worst. Many more people were infected and much higher death count.

https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates_2009_h1n1.ht...

I think we need to keep this in perspective.

In a few month, if previous incidents are the guide, we should be out of this crisis and return to normal.

The Logician from now on on March 11, 2020:

Lol, what a bunch of crapola!

And when none of which you said Scott comes true what will you say then. You won’t even be able to be found on this article. Par for the course.

Forget the flu, Nearly 1.25 million people die in road crashes each year, on average 3,287 deaths a day. An additional 20-50 million are injured or disabled.

I repeat, 3,287 deaths a day. An additional 20-50 million are injured or disabled.

And who is scared that is going to destroy us?

Listen to the media and Omg we're heading for a recession if 100 people die of coronavirus?

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on March 11, 2020:

Scott, talk about fear mongering...you take the take. This crisis is serious but not to that extent. The H1N1 flu of 2009 season was comparable. In that case, we had only 2000 deaths. Get real.

Scott Belford from Keystone Heights, FL on March 11, 2020:

What makes COVID-19 different from SARS and MERS is transmissibility. The coronavirus is as contagious or more contagious as the common flu. The latter two were not that contagious which is why they were contained quickly.

Last year, the flu infected more than 35 million Americans and has a mortality rate of around 0.1% (roughly 35,000 deaths). The best gauge we have right now, since the CDC has failed so miserably in getting testing out, is South Korea - who has been testing like crazy. The last time I calculated their numbers, the mortality rate is running at 0.6% - six times that of the flu.

Consider, if the coronavirus IS as contagious as the regular flu, then one can expect 35 million cases in the US as well. But at six times the death rate, that means 210,000 deaths!!

AND because the CDC has failed us, there is no real containment or mitigation program to keep the number of cases below that of the flu. Why is this so, because without testing, they have no idea of the scope of the problem in America.

And with Trump and the conservative media poo-pooing the seriousness of this pandemic, it will probably end up being worse than it needs to be.

Ironically, it will be conservatives who pay the price because they are the ones who will believe Trump and not protect themselves.

Suzie from Carson City on March 03, 2020:

Thanks,Ralph. You always bring us good, solid, researched and accurate information. I definitely appreciate this. Paula

The Logician from now on on March 03, 2020:

Ralph, Gee, how serious could this Corona virus be?

https://usercontent1.hubstatic.com/14904912_f1024....

The media is at work spreading fear and hoping it hurts Trump. They just can’t accept the he’s made of Teflon.

The Logician from now on on February 29, 2020:

Since impeachment people realize the game democrats are playing and I’m happy to see them double down on the blame Trump for everything strategy because it will guarantee Trump’s re-election. More and more of the Democrat’s constituents see through it.

Future generations will replace the idiom “cry wolf” with “Blame Trump”

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on February 29, 2020:

If the economy tanks, you can bet the Democrats will blame it on Trump. I would not be surprised some of them are cheering now for the DOW to drop even more...

It is a sick ideology where a party will be happy to hurt the people they claim to serve while pursuing power at any cost.

The Logician from now on on February 29, 2020:

On second thought Ken, even if your belief isn’t true I would suspect the Democrats would already be using it as a reason to blame Trump and his tariffs for the coronavirus!

Watch for that to come out of the mouths of some looney leftists!

The Logician from now on on February 29, 2020:

Well Ken that makes sense! But then for them to do that I’d have to believe they know that they can control it, wouldn’t they? They certainly can afford to lose a lot of population but not too much.

If your scenario is true then maybe they are lying about the severity of the problem. Maybe instead of under reporting it as many suspect they are over reporting the statistics. Perhaps that explains why outside of China the death count is so small, no one has died here.

I think you’ve hit on a good possibility Ken. I have not heard your explanation anywhere else. Have you? Is there evidence out there or is your take just educated speculation.

manatita44 from london on February 29, 2020:

Good to know Ralph. let us hope and pray.

Ken Burgess from Florida on February 29, 2020:

I believe it is a cover up created by the CCP leadership...

China had developed into a 'middle-class' society, but the global economy has slowed, the trade war with America is having a major impact, companies are finding cheaper labor in foreign lands... in essence their economy is stagnating if not worse.

The CCP can't afford such failure, it can't afford its people to question its leadership or place blame for hardships onto the Party.

Creating a pandemic scare which gives the excuse of shutting down factories and putting people out of work, and gives an excuse for the downturn, allows the Party to shift the blame and maintain its control and authority.

John Hansen from Queensland Australia on February 29, 2020:

Though of some concern, this is just another fear campaign that is being worsened by the media. Thanks for sharing this Ralph.

Ralph Schwartz (author) from Idaho Falls, Idaho on February 28, 2020:

T - I did the math and got the same number, but decided to use the official number

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on February 28, 2020:

doris, you are correct. The market is more like a gambling casino. Some of the big players control the market. Insiders also trade and make profits. the loser is the small investor. They panic and sell at low and buy at the top...

You are smart not to sell. If you have a long horizon, just keep a small amount in cash and the rest invested in Index funds... You can't go wrong.

Doris James MizBejabbers from Beautiful South on February 28, 2020:

The whole stock market, Dow Jones, etc. are just a bunch of contrived figures anyway. Just a few weeks before this outbreak, my financial advisor warned me that there was about to be what they term a "correction" in the market. He has also explained to me that this is nothing to be concerned about because it occurs on a cyclic basis. I think the financial masterminds are using this virus as an overkill for their already-scheduled correction anyway. I can't see any reason why such a drop should occur just because people are getting sick.

The last time there was a correction, I lost 20% of value in my investments, but a few of my friends lost nearly all of their IRAs. I intend to ride out and not sell just like I did last time.

I'm not putting the blame on Trump. This market drop is far above his pay grade.

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on February 28, 2020:

The market over reaction is triggered by program trading IMHO. There is no good reason for us to allow such fast trading of securities. I think an informed human is still the way to go when it comes to buy or sell of stocks. The current volatility is self created. If we stop the program trading programs, things will react more slowly and deliberately.

The Logician from now on on February 28, 2020:

I don’t get it. 29 million or so people here get the flu every year and 15,000 die and this has never put us into a recession!

Don’t even bother me til we approach numbers like that.

We’re at 12 - 20 people, maybe, now? And no deaths. Yep time to follow San Francisco and declare an emergency. No one there has the virus while they need maps to tell you where you won’t step in poop! And the virus is an emergency?

Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on February 28, 2020:

I totally agree. This scare is totally over blown. Some Democrats are using this as a political vehicle to attack Trump. It is no one's fault and we will have periodic episodes like this. We will survive it as all previous pandemics.

The Logician from now on on February 28, 2020:

You say The mortality rate from the current outbreak ranges from 0.5% to 2% depending on where you are at.

The total mortality rate by your numbers is 3.4% 2,762 divided by 81,109. Not 2%

Even just in China it is 3.4%

But all this depends on these numbers being accurate.

Then there is the report that people who have gotten over it still test positive.