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The Domino Theory Could Apply and Pakistan May Be the Next Target After Afghanistan

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The author is an air warrior, military historian and writer on warfare and military history


The Domino theory

US president General Eisenhower first mentioned this theory in a press conference on April 7, 1954. The Domino theory is a geopolitical theory that states if one country in a region came under the influence of communism then other countries would follow suit.

This domino theory can now be extended to Pakistan and other Muslim countries in Central Asia. The countries of Central Asia have been under Russian rule and have imbibed Russian culture and are not easily susceptible to Talibanization.

Pakistan has a population and a government that is highly receptive to extremist Islamic thoughts and philosophy as such there is a good chance that Pakistan will be in the line of fire of Talibanization. As it is with its victory in Afghanistan the Taliban rule could lead to a resurgence of Al Qaeda and ISIS.

Pakistan is a sad case as the founder of Pakistan Mohammed Ali Jinnah had spelled out his secular ideas. He had stated," You will find that in the course of time, Hindus will cease to be Hindus and Muslims will cease to be Muslims, not in the religious sense because that is the personal faith of each individual, but in the political sense as citizens of the state." Jinnah would never have hailed the victory of the Taliban

In contrast, Pak PM Imran Khan has supported the victory of the Taliban by stating that it, “had broken the shackles of slavery.” Well, he probably means educating girls, having elections, a free press, and a rule of law is slavery.

Three incidents in Pakistan will undermine the direction in which the country is headed

a) An eight-year-old Hindu boy was arrested on the charge of blasphemy and when he was given bail the mass of people was incensed and a Hindu temple was burnt and Hindu families had to take refuge.

b)A Pakistani girl filming an event for TickTock at the Minar e Pakistan was attacked by a crowd of 400 men and sexually molested. Videos of this incident are so shocking that I would not like to put them on HubPages but if anybody's interested he or she can access them on YouTube and they are made by people from Pakistan.

c) A 13-year-old Christan girl was abducted and forcibly married to a 44-year old and the Sindh High Court gave custody of the girl to her abductor.

Pak army backs Taliban

Pak army backs Taliban

The present scene

The Taliban which has been labeled as a terrorist organization by the United Nations and most of the countries in the world has won a great victory. In other words, democracy has lost and extremism personified by the Taliban has won. The Taliban has already shown its colors and many of the Afghan troops who had surrendered have been executed. Girls are being forced into marriages with Taliban fighters. In Pakistan itself, there is a lot of celebration among the clergy who have congratulated the Taliban.

As far as Pakistan is concerned the path to extremism started in1973 when a law was passed declaring the Ahmedis as non-Muslim. That was not enough and violent attacks and killings of Ahmedis began.

The situation took for the worse when General Zia-ul-Haq passed the Hooded ordinance. It was the first attempt to Talibnize the country. It still remains in force and has not been repealed. This ordinance was a direct attack on women and brought rape under the purview of sharia with all provisions of evidence where Islamic jurisprudence replaced the Pakistan penal code.

Pakistan also has the infamous blasphemy law and 90% of prisoners on death row in the world are from Pakistan and more than half of them are from the minorities mainly Christians. Anybody talking against the law has been executed or murdered. Two prominent cases are that of Shahbaz Bhatti the Federal Minister for Minority affairs who was killed by gunmen. This was followed by the governor of Punjab Mr. Salman Taseer who has shot dead by his bodyguard and when the killer was taken to court, flowers were showered on him.

These are very significant pointers that show that many people are receptive to the Talibanization of Pakistan. There is I believe a significant minority would like to oppose this but they have been silenced and many of the significant minority are also brainwashed into believing that what is being done is correct.

The victory of the Taliban has given a lease of life to the Pakistan Taliban. They had earlier created mayhem and now will get another lease of life. During earlier Taliban rule the Pakistan government was one of the three countries in the world that recognized the Taliban. Pakistan took control over the Pakistan Taliban and other extremist organizations only once the Taliban was defeated in Afghanistan. I think this reality is not going into the brain of the Pakistan Prime Minister and the leadership.

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One of the biggest culprits in this entire scenario is the Pakistan army which is known to have close links with the Taliban and they played a double game and helped defeat the United States. Taliban fighters were given refuge as well as medical treatment in military hospitals.


The future of Pakistan to my way of thinking looks is a little murky. Pakistan may be celebrating the victory of the Taliban but it is like a double edge sword and very soon within the next year or two the fruits will be available. There are people in Pakistan who are aware that a Taliban victory in Afghanistan will give a fillip to the Pakistan Taliban and bring in Whabbism. It has to be seen how strong this movement can band together and stop this.

Regrettably, most of the Pakistan elite have not recognized the danger of the blasphemy law and nobody seems to be agitating against it. No other Muslim country in the world has a similar law. Even the ex-president of Pakistan general Mushraff and Imran Khan in a speech has stated the advantage of the blasphemy law. Pakistan society is getting Talibanized and the recent attack on a woman by 300 men in Lahore is an example.

Pakistan is in the group of the domino theory, yet one cannot say that the battle is lost and one hopes that after Saudi Arabia changed and is giving rights to women and seeing the freedom of the woman in Egypt, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates which are pre-dominant Islamic better sense will prevail.

One can keep one's fingers crossed after the United States' precipitous withdrawal from Afghanistan and surrender. George Bush had started the 'war on terror' and it ended with an American defeat. However, now it is more important, that the world minus the United States join up together to help the moderates in Pakistan to see that the country does not fall to the domino theory of the victory of the Taliban.

Voltaire the French writer inspired the French revolution and there is a need for writers in Pakistan to take up the cudgels against Talibanization in Pakistan.


MG Singh (author) from UAE on August 21, 2021:

Ken, thanks for commenting. Yes, we have to wait and watch but China is not greatly loved in this part. Witness-9 Chinese engineers killed in a targetted bomb blast in Pakistan a week back incensing China, prompting stoppage of all work on the hydel project. Food for thought.

Ken Burgess from Florida on August 21, 2021:

MG it will be interesting to watch unfold.

Will the Taliban bite the hand that feeds them (China) and allows them to prosper?

Or will the Taliban and their allies focus their hostilities elsewhere?

MG Singh (author) from UAE on August 21, 2021:

Ken, just an afterthought, there is fly in your ointment because you hadn't taken into consideration the rise of Al Qaeda and ISIS courtesy of the Taliban. China will have it tough.

MG Singh (author) from UAE on August 21, 2021:

Ken, you have a point. China is the big factor that America never thought of. Chinese are devious and astute; 4000 years of history.

MG Singh (author) from UAE on August 21, 2021:

Thank you Col, it's a sad story.

LT Col Parduman Singh on August 21, 2021:

Nice write-up. Pakistan's celebrations of the Taliban coming to power are going to turn bitter. Watch out and the sufferers will be women and minorities. Imran Khan the puppet of the army will go into the dust bin of history.

Ken Burgess from Florida on August 21, 2021:

Perhaps you are right, regarding the Taliban spreading, but I think both nations will remain under the auspices of China and the region will stabilize.

China isn't interested in controlling them with a centralized government or changing them. China just wants their natural resources. They will manage to loosely control the area by paying off various tribes, or granting them autonomy.

China isn't worried about cultivating women's rights, or indoctrinating children with Western ideals. China will build the roads, the pipelines, the airports they need to extract resources and leave the Afghans to their own devices. They will be allowed to enforce Sharia law and Islamic government as they see fit... so long as China is getting its resources.

MG Singh (author) from UAE on August 21, 2021:

Thank you Bill. This is a sad story as my maternal great grandfather and grandfather used to live in Lahore and I feel fondly for Pakistan and I am really unhappy that these sort of things are happening there.

MG Singh (author) from UAE on August 21, 2021:

Mohd Aslam, thank you. I have not lost hope and the moderates may still oppose this support of the Taliban. What bugs me is that when Imran Khan says he supports the Taliban does it mean that he wants to apply the same policies of forcible marriage and execution in Pakistan?

Bill Holland from Olympia, WA on August 21, 2021:

It is entirely possible. Without assistance from other nations, I would say it is probable. Cross our fingers and hope at this point.

Mohd Aslam on August 21, 2021:

I am from Bangladesh and am presently a student. This is a very interesting article and brings out the rule of the Pakistan army. Pakistan army had carried out mass atrocities and rapes against women and girls in Bangladesh when they had colonized the area. Thankfully the Bengali threw them out but I will not be surprised if Pakistan becomes another Taliban state.

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