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Taiwan Will Be Under China's Thumb

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The war in the Ukraine has shown us many things, some good and some bad. For the Chinese, the Ukraine war has shown what to expect from the USA and NATO when they attack Taiwan. This is not a "if", it is a "when". The Chinese see Taiwan in similar ways that Putin sees the Ukraine: part of their history, their country. Like Putin, the Chinese have been open about Taiwan, the runaway province back in 1948 or so. Up to this point in history, China has been militarily helpless to reclaim it. Of course, that has totally changed since 2015. China, in some ways, is equal to the US.

The year 2024 may be when the Chinese attempt to take the island. It is the year the Taiwanese have their election, and it is when the US has its presidential election, both will act as national distractions.

As some as noted, the Chinese have already begun their early moves in trying to intimidate and threaten dire circumstances in order to get the West to comply with their wants. After all, part of China's plan is to take Taiwan without military force, maybe through political mayhem in their system or threats that are real reminders they are knocking on the door.

In May, 2022, Senator Tammy Duckworth made a visit to Taiwan to promote arms sales that was unannounced. This greatly bothered the Chinese because during the 3-day visit, China violated Taiwan's airspace with 30 combat aircraft! The last time it was done on this scale was in January 2022. Of course, the Taiwanese air force intercepted but nothing else happened. Yet, the attempt to intimidate was clear.

As of late July, 2022, the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, an ardent supporter of Taiwan, announced she will visit soon. The response from China was to threaten military action via unseen and unexpected consequences in their formal written response to Pelosi. The wording was dire should she go.

What does Joe Biden do? He advises her not to go now as it is not a good time. Biden should know that appeasement never satisfies the aggressor and that doing what the Chinese want sends the wrong message. Biden tried to appease Putin by obeying him when he threatened to use nuclear weapons. China is trying the same action.

The weakness in Biden is woefully obvious when he bows to Russia and China. It is one of the few times that most Democrats and Republicans are standing against Biden and urging Pelosi to go! She has been very stalwart against the Chinese on the Taiwan issue. Meanwhile, the Taiwanese have begun practicing air raid drills for the general public and first aid drills. These are lessons from the Ukraine war.

When War Comes

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For all the talk the US makes about defending Tawian with military action and lives, most USN wargames on the topic show that such assistance will be difficult to achieve due to logistics, time, and distance. China is so close to Taiwan that the war might be half over by the time any US forces arrive from Japan. Any USN ships near Taiwan would be attacked and it would be a matter of time before they were eliminated either from missile strikes from a variety of platforms or submarines. Should one US carrier be sunk or damaged, that would shock the US. The Taiwanese defenses might last 2-4 days if the Chinese saturate their bases and defenses with missiles and bombs. This is what wargames show. At best, Taiwan may have a week to resist. But once Chinese troops land onshore, the odds get worse for them.

Even if the USN was able to interdict some, the Chinese have the numbers that will prevail, as history has shown us. The Chinese would also target Guam, Okinawa, where the US has bases. Those facilities would be greatly compromised in their support of any USN effort. Of course, the US will threaten China with retaliation on the Chinese homeland (or would they?) and any attacks would make matters worse. US would cutoff trade with China, which would also hurt the US. Any attempt to supply weapons to Taiwan, like the US has in Ukraine, would fail if China controlled the airspace and sea. The use of nukes by the US, seems highly unlikely, but China would respond.

China has planned for a lightening attack on a massive scale and unlike Russia in the Ukraine, which had the same idea, is working hard to make sure it can happen and be over in a week with Taiwanese surrender. There does not seem like there is much the West can do to stop it once it begins.

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