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Super Tuesday Democratic Primaries

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Super Tuesday 2020 (colored in orange)

By Mélencron - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=77646130

By Mélencron - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=77646130

March 3, 2020 Super Tuesday - Updated November 9, 2019

There are a total of 14 primaries and the caucus in American Samoa on March 3, 2019. Election capsules will be updated when a poll is released.

In addition, the remaining March 2019 caucuses and elections, after Super Tuesday are covered at the end of this article.

For an analysis of the first four primaries/caucuses, see:

https://hubpages.com/politics/The-First-Four-Primaries-Democratic-Nomination

For a read on the overall nomination, you see my article at:

https://hubpages.com/politics/US-Election

California

super-tuesday-democratic-primaries

California Primary - March 3, 2020

How many days or weeks will it take for the results to be known? There are 416 delegates to be determined through this primary process, 272 delegates based on the results in the 53 congressional districts and an additional 144 delegates based on the statewide totals. The minimum rule of 15% applies to the congressional districts as well as the statewide outcome.

Early voting in California begins on February 3, which is the same day as the Iowa caucus. Early voting runs through February 25. This means that voters in California will know the results of the Iowa caucus, New Hampshire primary and the Nevada caucus during the period for early voting.

California Primary - Updated December 24, 2019

Overall rank is based on the four most recent polls collected through December 10 and non-polling data updated December 24.

CandidateCalifornia RankMedian PollMedian Poll RankNon-Polling RankPolling Momentum

Sanders

1

22.0%

1

2

+1.5%

Biden

2

19.0%

3

1

+3.5%

Warren

3

21.5%

2

3

-1.5%

Buttigieg

4

12.0%

4

4

-2.0%

Klobuchar

6

1.5%

5

5

-0.5%

Analysis of California Primary Projections - Updated December 24, 2019

Senator Kamala Harris of California withdrew from the race on December 3. At the point that Harris withdrew, her median poll in California was 8% and she was rated 5th overall (aggregate of polling and non-polling data).

Yang, Steyer, Booker and Gabbard have not qualified for the January debate and are not included in the California table.

California is a critically important state as to whether any candidate could carry a majority of votes on the 1st ballot at the democratic national convention. No where in the country is the 15% rule as important as California. Mathematically, it would be difficult for any candidate to win the majority of delegates on the 1st ballot without reaching at the least the 15% statewide minimum in California. In addition to whom wins California, which the national media is focused on, there is the very important consideration as to how many candidates reach 15% at the statewide level. There are almost as many statewide delegates in California (144) as there are in total (district plus statewide) in the first four primary/caucuses on the 1st ballot (155).

The four polls used in this analysis are as follows: Change Research / KQED (12-10), CNN / SSRS (12-8), Capitol Weekly (12-7), and University of California Berkeley (11-27).

Based on these most recent polls in California and the national non-polling data, Sanders is currently projected 1st in California followed by Biden, Sanders and Buttigieg. Median poll numbers currently are strong enough for Warren, Sanders and Biden that they would share in earned delegates, both at the state and district level. The difference between the top three candidates based on the median alone is only three points, and such, we can say that California is presently a toss-up.

Polling momentum over four polls is defined as the difference between the average of the most recent two polls and the average of the prior two polls. Momentum is most positive for Biden at +3.5% and least positive for Buttigieg at -2.0%.

Texas

By United States Mint - http://www.usmint.gov/pressroom/index.cfm?flash=yes&action=photo United States Mint, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=700656

By United States Mint - http://www.usmint.gov/pressroom/index.cfm?flash=yes&action=photo United States Mint, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=700656

Texas Primary - March 3, 2020

The Texas primary is scheduled for March 3. A total of 228 delegates will be determined as pledged based on the results of 31 state Senatorial districts (149 delegates) and at the statewide level (79 delegates). The 15% minimum rule necessary to earn a delegate applies to both the Senatorial districts as well as the statewide vote.

Texas Primary Projections - Updated December 12, 2019

The projected result is based on the median of the three most recent unique polls through December 9 and the national non-polling data updated December 12. Only candidates qualified for November debate are listed.

CandidateTexas RankMedian PollRank Median PollRank Non-PollingPolling Momentum

Biden

1

28.0%

1

1

+9.5%

Sanders

2

15.0%

3

2

0.0%

Warren

3

18.0%

2

4

-5.5%

Buttigieg

4

8.0%

4

3

+2.0%

Yang

5

3.0%

5

5

0.0%

Klobuchar

6

2.0%

6.5

6

-1.0%

Steyer

7

2.0%

6.5

7

+0.5%

Analysis of Texas Primary Projections - December 12, 2019

In any state, If there are more than three unique polls in the last month, this author will use all polls to compute the median. Texas has been very lightly polled. The most recent three polls taken in Texas are CNN / SSRS (12-9), University of Texas Tyler (11-14) and You Gov (10-27).

Harris and O'Rourke has withdrawn from the race for the nomination. Gabbard and Booker have not qualified for the December debate and as such do not appear in the Texas table.

At this point Biden leads Warren and Sanders in Texas and all three candidates would pick-up delegates.

The results in Texas and California on this Super-Tuesday will go a a long way to determining whether any candidate might win on the 1st ballot as well as whom the successful candidate might be. As of this update, the answer is (a) no - there will not be a winner on the 1st ballot and (b) the nominee will be one of three candidates: Biden, Warren or Sanders.

Momentum in Texas is defined as the difference between the most recent poll and the average of the prior two polls. Biden currently has the most momentum in Texas at +9.5% and Warren has the least momentum at -5.5%.

All Other Super Tuesday State Polling Data (January 7, 2020)

Data based on most recent poll in each state except NC where median is used. In NC poll dates are 11-13, 11-7 and 10-26.

StatePoll Date1st Place2nd Place3rd Place

AL

07-16-19

Biden 36%

Sanders 15%

Warren 13%

AR

No polls

-

-

-

CO

08-19-19

Sanders 26%

Biden 25%

Warren 20%

MA

10-25-19

Warren 41%

Biden 35%

Sanders 13%

ME

10-21-19

Biden 27%

Warren 22%

Sanders 15%

MN

10-15-19

Warren 25%

Klobuchar 15%

Biden 14%

NC

11-13-19

Biden 37%

Warren 15%

Sanders 14%

OK

07-27-19

Biden 26%

Warren 12%

Harris 8%

TN

07-16-19

Biden 33%

Warren 18%

Sanders 13%

UT

No polls

 

 

 

VA

09-15-19

Biden 23%

Warren 9%

Sanders 9%

VT

No polls

 

 

 

Analysis of Other Super-Tuesday State Polling (Updated January 7, 2020)

Other than California and Texas, where polling data exists, Biden leads in six of the remaining nine states, whereas Warren leads in two and Sanders one. The only states where Biden, Warren and Sanders have not most recently polled 1st, 2nd and 3rd in some combination are Minnesota (Klobuchar 2nd) and Oklahoma (Harris 3rd). If there are three or more polls taken within the most recent month, a separate capsule will be added for that state.

March 2020 State Polling After Super-Tuesday - Updated November 19, 2019

Data based on most recent poll in each state.

StateElectionPoll1st Place2nd Place

ID

03-10-20

None

-

-

MI

03-10-20

10-25-19

Biden 30%

Warren 21%

MO

03-10-20

09-16-19

Biden 34%

Warren 22%

MS

03-10-20

07-16-19

Biden 47%

Sanders 21%

ND

03-10-20

None

-

-

WA

03-10-20

08-01-19

Biden 19%

Sanders 18%

AZ

03-17-20

11-08-19

Biden 29%

Warren 18%

FL

03-17-20

10-26-19

Biden 27%

Warren 19%

IL

03-17-20

07-29-19

Biden 36%

Sanders 15%

OH

03-17-20

10-14-19

Biden 32%

Warren 21%

GA

03-24-19

09-21-19

Biden 31%

Warren 14%

Analysis of State Polling in March 2020 After Super-Tuesday - Updated November 19, 2019

After Super-Tuesday, there will be eleven primaries or caucuses in the US States during the month of March. As of this update, out of the nine states where polling data exists, Biden leads in all nine states. Warren is 2nd in six states and Sanders is 2nd in three states. The caveats to this analysis are (a) that the time elapsed since the poll was taken might degrade the importance of that particular poll and (b) the data reflects only the most recent poll. When (if) there are three or more polls in the last month, a separate capsule will be opened for that particular state.

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