My article is based on the issue in Afghanistan after the US military left.
Spill Over Effect of Afghanistan
According to Buzan, most of the problems that south Asia is facing are mainly stemming from their complex internal dynamics with an external factor that could well further intensify the situation. Initially the afghan war has started against the government which then led to the involvement of external powers. Soviet invasion of Afghanistan has led to the instability, the effects is still there. After soviet invasion civil war started and then Taliban rose up. These all has prevented peace in Afghanistan. US waged the global war on terror in the last quarter of the 2001. It is one the longest wars fought by US on foreign lands. The Afghan situation is complex with the involvement of state, & non-state actors, regional and extra regional interference. Afghan war has been a costly affair in terms of time, money and human lives lost. For the past many centuries Afghan lands are being used and abused resulting in the domestic instability. Domestic instability has caused the influx of Afghan Refugees to the neighboring states and worldwide. The chaotic rebels, invaders and other actors’ interest all together have put the security and safety of the Afghanistan and region at risk.
After multiples years and many attempts the Peace Accord between the Taliban and America was finally signed on February 29, 2020 in Doha. To reach the agreement; talks between the Taliban and America started way back in the last quarter of 2018 aiming to end this prolonged war in Afghanistan. The representatives of US and Taliban leaders met a couple times in Doha, Qatar to reach Afghanistan peace agreement. The agreement is conditional; US & NATO forces will not intervene if the Taliban stick to the agreement. Agreement holds a lot of importance for regional and international peace & security. Peace in Afghanistan will translate to peace and development in south Asia and especially Pakistan. Pak-Afghan border Durand line is about 1659 miles long; connecting Pakistan with land lock state of Afghanistan.
Peace in Afghanistan & the region majorly depend upon the domestic actors. As mentioned earlier treaty is conditional and the US and NATO troops can intervene if the Afghan Taliban violate any terms of the treaty. According to the agreement; Taliban and Afghan government will sit together to reach any political settlement, Afghan Taliban will never let Afghan’s soil to be used by any terrorist factions/organizations/identity against America or any other country and Taliban will fight any existing terrorist threat & Taliban should refrain from its violent activities, won’t target foreign troops and in return foreign troops will not attack the Taliban sanctuaries. At the same time there is a bilateral agreement between the US and Afghan Government which was signed in 2014. According to this agreement US and NATO troops would stay in Kabul to support Afghan National Army against the Taliban till 2024.
South Asia specifically Pakistan has been deeply affected by this prolonged Afghan episode. She has been serving in the front line in war against terror. Peace in Afghanistan in the longer term will translate to the stability in South Asia and especially Pakistan because of the geographical proximity. Stability is the pre-requisite of development, there are many developmental projects awaiting peace. If the domestic instability in Afghanistan has a spillover effect in south Asian region than the peace in Afghanistan will also have that spillover effect in the region. Peace will open many prospects for future; land lock state of Afghanistan will be connected through land routes enhancing trade and communication. TAPI and CPEC both await peace & stability in Afghanistan and South Asia.
Other areas subject to spillover include the Central Asian states that face a threat of rising extremism owing to imminent security issues that will exacerbate as the result of US withdrawal from Afghanistan because of their prior assistance to NATO and ISAF. With stringent cut-down of extremist factions’ havens in the region, porous borders to Central Asian states poise a major threat to these states.In addition to the spillovers, states like Japan, Turkey and Canada have extended their support for various stakeholders and peace processes in Afghanistan.