Ukraine has long played an important role; sometimes, it is crucial to overlook its role in the global security order. Today the country is in its worst state. On 24 Feb 2022, Russia attacked Chemobyl's main airport, the first bombing since world war II. Some scholars believe that The mistakes in the past are responsible for this escalation. The causes are multiple, most important unwillingness Of. Russia accepted the west's dominance and Nato's expansion towards Eastern Europe. Around 100,000 people left. their homes and 1400 details all over the country, and Putin Justified the assault as a defense of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk republics in Eastern Europe. The conflict is not new but old; since 2014, when the Crimea state of Ukraine was invaded by Russia and made part of their territory, it has its roots in the past. United States of America and western blogs are responsible for this too. This move by Putin could rewrite the world's geopolitical landscape with its ripple effect worldwide.
Historical Background of Crisis:
In 1991, after the Soviet Union's collapse, Ukraine became an independent state, and there was an end to the Cold war US promised and assured that NATO would not expand into eastern Europe. In 2008 Ukrainian government granted membership in NATO, to which the Us agreed, but France and Germany opposed it due to Russian discontentment over this. In 2014 Russia invaded Crimea; due to this, two states, Donetsk and Lushank people's republic, broke off from Ukraine. In April 2019, Volodymyr Zelensky was elected as Prime minister of Ukraine. Putin demanded a security guarantee that Ukraine would not join the Nato; for Moscow, NATO's eastern expansion is seen as a violation of an earlier understanding that the US and its western allies would not intervene in Russia's area of influence. Un rejected the Russian annexations and demands. The US refused to close NAto on Ukraine, and western countries imposed financial sanctions on Russia. Putin ordered his forces to attack Ukraine region.
Potential Impact On region
The Ukraine crisis has the potential to impact the whole region, and it could change the geopolitical landscape all over the world. There is an increased chance of direct war (World war 3) with the creation of a domino effect that may Involve all the regions leading to a full-blown war all over Europe. Region.
Some impacts are discussed here.
1 Creation of security dilemma:
Russia hit chermbyl; 1st bombing after world war 2. there is a creation of security. The Dilemma with a consequence of arms and threat of nuclear proliferation Relating to the Cuban missile crisis in 1962. there might not be further escalation and continuation of war or direct war with the US, but it will be there with major European powers
2 Impacts on the World Economy.
Russia is 2nd largest producer of crude oil and national gas, with more than 60 percent of its energy export going to European countries; it export wheat and other food commodities; it exports raw material and finished goods. And Ukraine has a share in foreign sales of different countries. However, due to sanctions on Russia, there is a hike in fuel and energy prices.
Case study of Pakistan.
In January, after the beginning of the Ukraine crisis, Headline consumer prices recorded a 13 % current account deficit increased by 5.7 %, and the trade deficit also rose. There is a hike in prices of fuel and energy, which is evidence of this -
3 Distraction of world leaders from others.
Due to this threat, there is a potential threat of distraction Of world leaders from other issues like Palestine, Kashmir issue, Humanitarian Crisis, Human rights, Indopacific and climate crisis. This inevitable issue has threatened the whole world, and the UN is unable to convince Putin to withdraw his forces
4 Reset the Global Balance of Power.
Russian invasion has not only threatened the sovereignty of Ukraine, but it has undermined the entire geopolitical order; long-term consequences are still difficult to assess in the current crisis. The world has been thrown back into the situation where Europe & NATO countries are no longer as willing to engage with countries further east. There is a possibility of a new arms race occurring that would have second and third-order effects.
Putin's decision seems to have made the world less sage. It is now a world where political relations could become increasingly being determined by military strength. Though the United States and the UN have taken punitive action against Russia, they have made little headway in helping Ukraine. There is an Increase threat of escalation and more destruction with ripple effects all over the world- West could persuade Putin to back down. West should assure that Ukraine has the right to exist as an independent state. The United States and. NATO has to 6 step back from this political scenario. NATO could agree on a new security deal. Otherwise, there is an increased chance of full-blown war with an irreparable impact on the world.