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Putin Is Shrewd : Here Is How He'll Win in Ukraine

An senior air warrior and political observer who has the pulse of the region and can sense a change when it comes.

putin-is-shrewd-here-is-how-hell-win-in-ukraine

Background

Vladimir Putin the Russian president was born in 1952, in Leningrad (now Saint Petersburg). He graduated in Law in 1975, from Leningrad State University. He immediately joined the KGB and rose to the rank of Lt Col by 1991, and then quit his job to begin a political career. In 1999, he was appointed Prime Minister by the president Boris Yeltsin and after his resignation became president of Russia. Since that time he has been at the helm of affairs of the Russian state.

Putin is a strong man cast in the world of Josef Stalin with a one-point plan to restore Russia to its old glory. The battle in Ukraine is part of his grand scheme to make Russia a great power again and he's on the path of success. During the two decades, he's been in power he has led Russia through conflicts in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, and Crimea. He hasn't lost in any of them. He is likely to succeed in his latest drive into Ukraine as well, in other words, he will achieve his objective, which is to denuclearize Ukraine and stop it from having nuclear weapons as well as ensure that Ukraine never becomes part of NATO.

Invasion

For weeks and even months, Putin has been mouthing his opposition to the actions of the Anglo-Saxon powers in trying to entice Ukraine into their fold. They were able to foster a fear psychosis in Ukraine against Russia and the Ukrainian leadership came to believe that when the chips are down NATO and the Western powers will come to their help. Russia objected to Ukraine joining NATO and repeatedly said it was a redline.

Russia had begun to deploy its state of the art, army, and military hardware on the borders of Ukraine facing Russia and Belarus for the last 2 to 3 months. Military drills, including nuclear drills, were being carried out and the entire atmosphere had a surreal touch. Nobody expected that Putin will entangle with the United States and NATO. The United States was expecting some action from Putin because they had not agreed to his principal demands to declare Ukraine a nuclear-free zone as well as stop it from becoming a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The security guarantee demanded by Russia was not given and in a thoughtless act, Joe Biden said the Russian proposals were nonstarters.

Peace was rudely shattered when Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in the early hours of 24th February. It was shock and awe as within 24 hours Chernobyl, was surrounded and troops headed towards Kyiv.

Despite suffering collateral damage, the Russians have the ascendancy and the Ukrainian president was considering meeting the Russians at a neutral venue in Belarus. I think he changed his mind and maybe he's no longer in Kyiv. All said and done Putin has subjugated the West to a humiliating blow and this was one of the purposes of this invasion.

Another key issue that is resolved is that membership of Ukraine into NATO will never happen. This action by Putin will be a strong reminder to countries that are thinking of joining NATO to be better beware. His third purpose is to show that NATO is a paper Tiger has borne fruit.

putin-is-shrewd-here-is-how-hell-win-in-ukraine

The cards Putin will play

The West is hoping that the book by Rumor Godon, " thus far and no further," will be true for Putin. But part of the problem is created by the West. A look at his past record shows that he's a very ruthless man. One can recollect the ruthless way he put down the Chechnya revolt and how he shored up the regime of Assad in Syria. One can also understand the way he went around the annexation of Crimea by presenting the West with a fait accompli.

He is going to do something similar in Ukraine. Knowledgeable military historians are of the opinion that Putin has no intention of occupying the whole of Ukraine; it would become a liability for him. His interest would be to bifurcate the country and let the eastern part become self-governing. He has already taken the first steps by recognizing to breakaway regions of Ukraine as sovereign nations and obviously, they're allied to Russia. Countries like Iran and Syria have recognized them.

The West led by the United States has imposed severe sanctions on Russia. The resolution to condemn Russia in the security council was not passed. It is to be noted that two of the biggest powers in Asia, India, and China have abstained and refused to tow the American line. The sanctions cannot be effective without the concurrence of these two powers who constitute a big trading block with Russia. No wonder, Viktor Tatarintsev, the Russian ambassador to Swedish told the newspaper Aftonbladet that they were not concerned about the sanctions imposed by the United States and he described them by using a four-letter word.

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Another aim of Putin is to install a regime that is Russia friendly after the capture of the Ukrainian Capitol. This is very much on the cards and the Americans are wary of it.

Donald Trump in one of his incisive comments had said that NATO is an obsolete organization. Historians feel he was correct because NATO was supposed to be a counterpoise to the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact and once the Soviet Union collapsed the raison d'etre for NATO ceased to exist. Why did the USA not dissolve it? It was basically to allow the Anglo-Saxon powers to be the dominant force in the continent. To justify its continuity, NATO needed an enemy and the American leadership focused on Russia. It was forgotten that at one time Boris Yeltsin wanted to be a member of NATO. All these acts of the West have been treated by Vladimir Putin as insults and he has vowed to show the Americans their place in the world and make them recognize Russia is a great power.

By his action in Ukraine, he has ensured that the world realizes that Russia is a great power with a formidable military, and Joe Biden and his supporters have been stunned. If America was all that strong, it could've intervened in Ukraine. NATO is paralyzed primarily because the repercussions would've been awful for America. NATO is incapable of waging a conventional war, why? Over the decades the European nations have not developed their military, confident in the belief that the American military would defend them. It has been seen that for the last seven decades, America is unable to deliver the goods. NATO never intervened in Hungary, Czechoslovakia, or any other hotspots of the world against either Russia or China.

I do not see how the Americans in a conventional war can even defend the smaller European nations who are members of NATO. It boils down to a nuclear war and that will lead to the destruction of Europe, though the USA may survive because of its size, the field will be open for China.

Putin knows the weakness of the West. He does not need to conquer Ukraine as he has already achieved his purpose. I find there is a lot of rhetoric with people saying let's have sanctions, let us make Russia pay, and what not. This is not child's play because the West is faced with a man who is a very determined man, but who knows his limitations

Putin only bites what he can chew and his history for the last two decades shows that he plays his cards in a way that he wins, otherwise he will backtrack. A man is needed in Washington, who can understand the psyche of Putin and deal with him. Threats and blandishments, like sanctions, etc, really have no meaning, except for public consumption. Some of the big powers in the world like China, India, are not going to agree to the sanctions by the Anglo-Saxon powers; in that respect, the West led by the USA may be cooking its own goose.

Joe Biden by his ineptitude has driven the Russian state into the arms of the Chinese, who are absolutely delighted. I hope better sense will prevail and either Biden will see reason, or he's replaced by a man like Trump to restore order in chaos. It is two years to the next election which is not a long time and we will have to wait and see how and when Putin plays his cards and makes the next move.



Last word

I will close this article with a poser on which readers can think. Assuming Russia militarily invades Estonia which is a member of NATO. What will be the scenario? Will the USA send soldiers to defend Estonia? A student of Military History will tell you that the small countries are indefensible in a conventional war; so the question is will the USA resort to using nuclear weapons? it will defeat the very purpose and result in the complete destruction of the Baltic states. In the military, we study the best course of action and in such a scenario the only solution to my way of thinking is to have an accommodation with Russia; give security guarantees and best of all wind-up NATO, it is a toothless tiger.

Reference

https://www.newsweek.com/2022/03/11/putin-has-never-lost-war-here-how-hell-win-ukraine-1682878.html? Putin has never lost a war here is how he'll win again

https://ecfr.eu/article/why-the-war-in-ukraine-could-reshape-the-european-nuclear-order/ why the war in Ukraine who should reshape European nuclear order

© 2022 MG Singh emge

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