MG is a military specialist having spent quality time in the Indian Air Force. He is also an alumnus of the Defence Services Staff College.
The roots of the present problem lie in the breakup of the Soviet Union. This was a traumatic moment for the erstwhile Soviet Union that broke up into 15 countries. These countries were part of a composite Soviet state for the greater part of the 20th century. The successor state to the USSR was Russia which was greatly emaciated having lost half of its population and even those areas which had been traditionally part of Russia for centuries. The cold war ended with the victory of the United States but the American leadership was very keen to maintain their hegemony over Europe by keeping Russia perpetually weak. As part of this plan, they began to ring Russia by expanding NATO to the erstwhile Soviet republics.
The plan of the American leadership was a success and slowly most of the countries under Soviet influence became part of NATO. Things began to change with the arrival of Vladimir Putin as president of Russia. Putin is cast in the mold of Josef Stalin and he set about restoring the earlier status. This was not easy as the Russian economy was not strong and he needed a pillar to lean on. He did the obvious thing by making up with China and now China and Russia are supposed to have a monolith alliance with a common aim to defeat the United States.
The present crisis erupted when Russia learned that Ukraine wanted to be part of NATO. Most of the east European countries feel that NATO will be their security shield. Unfortunately, they have not realized that NATO is an obsolete organization and its utility is practically zero. This is because of the fact that most of the East European countries which have become members are extremely small, including Little Britain and in any conflict, they will simply be wiped out. It is a moot point up to what level the Americans will go to defend these countries and put their own homeland at risk.
The entire problem of Ukraine could have been solved in one day if the Americans had said that they will not incorporate Ukraine Into NATO. It must be emphasized that there's no plan to extend NATO to Ukraine. All that was required was to make the statement which Biden was not making. The purpose is very simple; to needle Russia and President Putin accordantly amassed 120 thousand troops on the border of Ukraine.
The real facts
Biden has extremely low ratings at home especially after the American retreat from Afghanistan. This retreat showed America as a nation with legs of clay, unable to stand up for its allies. The Americans had already thrown in the towel as far as the South China Sea is concerned and are extremely wary of fighting a strong economy like China. Feeling powerless in the eastern Pacific, Biden's team thought it a good idea to up the ante on Ukraine and show to the American public that he was a strong man. He escalated the problem by putting small bodies of troops in a few European countries. Now everybody knows that a few hundred or two or 3000 troops are no substitute for military victory but the purpose was not that and basically the idea was to needle Russia to attack Ukraine.
It is highly unlikely that Ukraine will be incorporated into NATO. This leads to an important question. If the aim is to prevent a war from happening what is the problem in making a statement that at the moment the US has no plans to incorporate Ukraine into NATO. It just points to one conclusion that Biden actually wants Russia to invade Ukraine.
The Russians have been stating this for some time and the question arises if Russia invades Ukraine what happens? The local conflict will commence because NATO is not going to intervene and fight Russia. What is likely is that Biden will be able to enforce more stringent sanctions on Russia and that will help perpetuate American hegemony over Europe, while Russia gets bogged down in a conflict in Ukraine.
Another point which I must make is, that the Cold War will come back and the military -industrial complex of the United States will benefit. They control American policy and that is the reason that there are many drumming up support for Ukraine.
There is a very old saying that there is many a slip between the cup and the lip and Biden is making some very serious miscalculations.
One of the biggest miscalculations Joe Biden has made is that he has driven Russia into the arms of the Chinese. Both countries in the last meeting between Putin and President Xi have issued a communiqué supporting each other's point of view. Joe Biden was losing brownie points as far as China is concerned and many in the east we're really concerned whether Biden will be able to defend Taiwan against a full-scale invasion by China. He has just turned the spotlight from the eastern Pacific to Europe, in the hope that his ratings will improve
To understand his reasoning one must look at his political career which for 50 years has been nothing spectacular and has been a run-of-the-mill. He has no pretense to greatness and obviously, his strategic horizon also is limited. He has failed to realize that he has created a monolith alliance of Russia and China of 1.6 billion people which is going to be very formidable. There is nobody on the American side who can be part of the American alliance; least of all Boris Johnson who has I've already pointed out in my previous article is playing with fire. He should not forget what Nikita Khrushchev said. It requires 4 to 5H bombs to wipe the UK from the world map.
Biden is trying for an alliance with India which is the only power that can give muscle to the American camp. India is however closely interwoven in a relationship with Russia and Narendra Modi will not fight China on behalf of the USA.
I am not a crystal gazer but even a small-time political observer can realize that Joe Biden is playing with fire as far as Ukraine is concerned and the repercussions, in the long run, could be terrible for America. Lastly, I will state here that Russia is not going to invade Ukraine, because that would be playing into the hands of the Americans. Putin will continue his brinkmanship and that's about it.
This content reflects the personal opinions of the author. It is accurate and true to the best of the author’s knowledge and should not be substituted for impartial fact or advice in legal, political, or personal matters.
© 2022 MG Singh emge