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New Opinium Poll Shows Swing Back to Labour.

Labour party leader: Sir Keir Starmer.


A new poll out by 'Opinium', makes gloomy reading for the Tories. Apparently, many of the leave voters who voted Conservative in last years general election, are now backing Labour. It seems more leave voters, are willing to back Sir Kier, than remainers.

Why according to this latest poll, more leavers are willing to back Sir Keir this time, is unknown. The reason could be that Sir Keir has built up trust with leave voters also because many of them are Labour voters, anyway. Many Labour voters were put off by the far-left policies of Jeremy Corbyn and also his muddled policy on Brexit. Many of them were leave voters and flocked to back Boris, as he promised to bring them what they voted for. Now, Labour has a more right-wing leader (even though, Sir Keir was a remainer) those Labour voters feel confident enough to return.

Another reason for the rise of Labour in other polls could be because of the disastrous handling of Boris' COVID policies. Boris knew back in December that COVID was coming but went into the first lockdown too late and came out of lockdown too early. Then, because COVID rose again we were put into a Tier system, based on the severity of infection/death rates. Then, we were put into another lockdown again, now that is over and we are in a more targetted (supposedly) lockdown. Parts of the North, Midlands and the South are in Tier 3, other places Tier 2, while the least infected are in Tier 1.

On the 16th, this Wednesday, Boris is supposed to be reviewing whether cafes, pubs, restaurants may be able to open up again. Meanwhile, the fact a vaccine is now on tap and others are in the pipeline is certainly a sign of hope. However, based on conspiracy theories or fear, some are more cautious about the vaccine.

Sir Keir meanwhile, is willing to back a deal between the UK and the EU. However, some of his MPs, in and out of his cabinet have reservations. They are not prepared, apparently, to back a deal at all costs. However, Sir Keir has threatened his MPs to back any deal or else. Still, many Labour MPs say they would abstain should such a vote come before the commons.

This morning despite shuttle diplomacy with Boris going to see EU President, Ursula Von Der Leyen, no deal is probably the outcome. Talks have been going on to all hours and it would appear, no deal is now inevitable. We officially left in January, but the remainder of the year has been the transition period of the UK untangling itself from EU rules. Many businesses on both sides of the Channel, however, are left wondering what is happening. Many complain and we are talking British businesses here, that the government has been unclear as to which way businesses should go. COVID has already hit the economy hard and a no-deal Brexit could hit some companies even harder.

The 'Opinium' poll asked 7,000 members of the British population and the rise of support for Labour, was reflected in this. Certainly, if we do leave without a deal many hardline Breixteers will be shouting "Alleluiah". Many Labour Breixteer voters are also flooding back to Labour (not only for Keir) but they see the UK has left the EU (deal or no deal). The transition period was just about restoring full sovereignty back to the UK.

Sir Keir has been self-isolating again because one of his staff showed COVID symptoms. Sir Keir in PMQs this week, questioned the Prime Minister via video link. Both Boris and Sir Keir, have isolated twice that shows that even the high and mighty are not immune to the disease.

So then, all in all, things generally seem to be on the way up for Labour, let us hope it remains so.

British Prime Minister: Boris Johnson.


Boris' Gunboat Diplomacy.

One thing that sticks in the craw of the French as we leave the EU is fishing. The French and maybe others want their rights to fish in British waters to continue. They feel just because the UK is leaving the European Union, that shouldn't stop them taking fish in UK waters.

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Macron and the French government, should any deal be struck at the 11th hour (doubtful, now) would veto any EU-UK deal. All this over the fact that once the UK is not bound by agreements made with the EU over fishing, they could not enter UK waters. Any such crossing into UK waters would therefore be illegal and a breach of the UK's territorial integrity.

So, with this in mind Boris has said that the Royal Navy would patrol the UK's sea lanes. No doubt any foreign vessel, be it French or otherwise, would be apprehended and stopped from fishing. Whether the foreign vessel would be boarded or shots fired over its bow, is unknown. Would the vessel be towed back to British ports and its crew detained? What would the charges be? Illegal fishing in British waters? Would this rank as piracy? Would any agreements made with the EU over fishing, still stand post-Brexit? What would govern the Royal Navy as it policed UK waters on the lookout for foreign vessels?

In any post-Brexit world, if the British are patrolling their waters with naval vessels, what would those who wish to fish in our waters be? Would the French, for example, deploy military vessels to protect their fishing boats, even if they entered British waters? Could this become a-near shooting water like the British and Icelanders back in the mid-70s? There was a clash of vessels off the coast of Iceland between the Royal Navy and the Icelandic Coast Guard in a dispute over fishing. Are we likely to see something similar in the English Channel or other areas around the coast of the UK?

It could be added that if European vessels wish to fish off our coast, then the British fishing fleet should have the same right in theirs? What about fishing quotas? Will that be respected, because if foreign ships cannot fish our waters, our fleet will certainly take advantage of the fish stocks?

A Spanish minister has said that the threat by Boris to deploy the Royal Navy, is just talking. In the coming days, weeks, months, etc, we shall see what transpires on the high seas around the British coast.


Nick Bishop (author) on December 13, 2020:

Depends what polls you refer to Graham.

Thanks, Emge.

graham taylor on December 13, 2020:

Hard to believe this article short on "facts" when the lates true poll shows the Tories have gone ahead of Labour. Apart from attacking many in his own party Starmer has been a policy free zone. We should also remember that he was the architect of Labour's disastrous second referendum pledge - not one Jeremy Corbyn who should have been far stronger & resisted this electoral turn-off for Labour sympathisers.

MG Singh emge from Singapore on December 13, 2020:

Its not going to help as Boris is still some years away from another election. I guess labour has to bide its time and when the election does take place the result may again be different for Labour.

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