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Israel Vs Iran: Has Israel Missed the Bus in Not Attacking Iran Earlier?

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The author is an air warrior, military historian and writer on warfare and military history

israel-at-the-cross-roads-what-to-do-with-iran

Background


Iran is a Muslim state that has vowed to erase Israel from the map of the Middle East. Despite this statement appearing ludicrous, yet the fact is it cannot be dismissed out of hand as Iran is developing nuclear weapons.

Israel is alarmed and one had expected that by now Israel would have struck at Iran's nuclear facilities at least 7 years back. But it has not happened, mainly because the USA the biggest partner of Israel had perhaps dragged its feet in supporting an attack on Iran. The US has positioned a carrier group of the Iran coast, but it has done precious little other than showing the flag. In the meanwhile, Iran is continuing to strengthen itself.


The Present Scenario

The victory over large areas of Iraq by the ISIS has queered the pitch for Israel. The ISIS is Sunni and Iran is against them. Thus the primary focus for Iran has shifted to Iraq, where Iran cannot allow a Sunni takeover as Iran is Shia.

This also gives respite to Israel and it can think out of box solutions to resolve the deadly situation in Iraq. In any case, an attack by Israel on Iraq will not be an option right now.


israel-at-the-cross-roads-what-to-do-with-iran

Israel missed speed and surprise.

I

One of the principles of war, as enunciated by Clausewitz, is surprise and speed. In both these Israel has faulted. By waiting for over 7 years the Israelis have made their task that much harder. In real terms, UAE and Saudi Arabia will give tacit support and overflight facilities to Israel, but it is Israel that has to bite the bullet. With Biden at the helm of affairs at the moment, a US-led attack on Iran does to my mind appear remote. In any case by delaying the inevitable the chances of total victory are that much less, with Russia and China backing Iran. Over the years Iran has been able to strengthen itself and now it has got political and military support from Russia and China. The strategic scenario is murky and Israel cannot have a free-for-all like the way they had when they bombed the nuclear reactors in Iraq.


The Fatal Delay


In case Israel has to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, the delay is fatal. One fails to realize why it was not done. In the meantime, Iran is beefing itself and made bomb-proof shelters for its nuclear facilities. Its 4 Kilo-class submarines are moving in the strait of Hormuz to sink shipping and block the strait that carries 20% of oil out to the world. It's a messy situation and one wonders what the future will bring., but it's not going to be easy.

One thing is clear, an attack on Iran won't be a cakewalk. I have no doubt that Iran will be defeated, but in defeat, there may be a victory as Israel will be seen as an aggressor and the world will not be the same again.

Hostility of Iran towards Israel

The hostility of Iran will not end and many Muslims will feel that some revenge on Israel is required. It could mean greater terrorist activity and Israel will have to steel itself for another 50 years. That is a long time as Israel, friendless in the Middle East may have no easy way out.

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Missed biting the bullet


The US with a history of backing the wrong horses may be wondering what to do. This could be a stepping stone towards the eclipse of the USA as a world power. The recent retreat from Afghanistan has damaged American credibility and it appears that America has no very little interest in confronting get out also. For this, the USA has only itself to blame. Fighting useless wars in Iraq and Libya and draining the economy. I envy the Israeli leadership which is sitting on the horns of a dilemma. To bite the bullet or let it go. Both ways there is no respite for Israel.

The Americans under Joe Biden are desperately trying for a nuclear deal with Iran but Iran is playing hard to catch. This is the clue that Israel now cannot rely on America and in any case, much water has flown down the river Tigris and Israel is no longer in a position to bomb the nuclear facilities of Iran.

Last word

The well-known adage a 'stitch in time saves time' is what must bother Israel. Had Israel bombed the nuclear facilities a couple of years back; by now the storm would've blown over. The Geopolitical situation has now changed with America on the back foot and China on the warpath and as things stand the Americans are now more concerned about China and Iran and Afghanistan no longer interest the Americans.


Comments

MG Singh (author) from UAE on September 26, 2021:

Tom. thanks, now it's going to be difficult but the silver lining is the victory of the Taliban, it is very bad for Pakistan as now they are in the line of fire and the world is watching Pakistan.

tom on September 26, 2021:

1981v osiraq destroyed,iranian scentist killed ,till 1979 shah and israel allies,israel sold arms to fight saddam ,destroyed syrian reactor ,but iran nuclear facilties dispersed,iran no modern weapons

MG Singh (author) from UAE on March 01, 2012:

Thank you aka-dj

aka-dj from Australia on February 29, 2012:

From where I sit, the countdown to the events outlined in the Bible, is ticking away. It's a matter of time before (all) is revealed.

Good, short, and to the point Hub.

MG Singh (author) from UAE on February 29, 2012:

Thank you summerberrie. It is indeed a difficult situation for Israel

summerberrie on February 29, 2012:

Thank you for this candid article. It is a shame Israel is pulling so much of the weight without US support. It is one thing to have weapons to protect and another to have them to use.

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