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Four Factors that May Reserve Nigeria's Presidential Seat for Tinubu in 2023

Ibraheem Sikiru Adekunle is a Software Engineer with keen interest in molding political opinions and weighing marketing strategies.

As we move closer to the February 2023 General Election in the Federal Republic of Nigeria, there are emergence of brighter chances for the former Executive Governor of Lagos State and the 2023 Presidential candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress in Nigeria, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, to win the much-awaited presidential poll. This foresight could be traced to four identifiable factors that will definitely affect the performance of the candidates at the presidential poll.

The four factors that are highlighted for the likely victory of Bola Ahmed Tinubu are factors that, actually concern the firmness of the opposition against his presidential ambition, looking at the political culture of the country. They are identified as highlighted below:

  • Main Opposition Party, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), is decapitated
  • Tinubu's Antecedence and the Political Options before many Political Heads in the Country
  • Financial Capacity
  • Political Sagacity


Atiku Abubakar, PDP Presidential Candidate

Atiku Abubakar, PDP Presidential Candidate

Main Opposition Party, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), is decapitated

No doubt, the political strength of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Nigeria, today is nothing to be compared to their strength during the last presidential election in 2019.

For instance, during the 2019 Presidential election, Peoples Democratic Party relied on the political strength of the former Kano State Governor, Engineer Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, to garner millions of votes across the Northwestern states. Today, Engr Kwankwaso is a candidate of the New Nigeria Progressive Party (NNPP). He defected from PDP to the newly formed political party, NNPP, after he had disclosed displeasure with the ways PDP is being managed. Kwankwaso believed the presidential candidate of PDP, Atiku Abubakar hijacked the party and fenced all other presidential aspirants under the party out of the contest. Consequently, Kwankwaso had earlier suggested that he would rather give his support to Bola Ahmed Tinubu, if he could sense that his chances of winning the presidential contest is not certain.

Besides, Kwankwaso has also ruled out any hope of working with any other presidential candidate besides Tinubu, if the necessity to withdraw the race comes up.

This is, considerably, a plus for Tinubu's chances of becoming the President of the country in 2023. This is because whether he supports Tinubu's presidential ambition or not, he would definitely take away millions of votes from the PDP, as against the 2019 political experience in the country.

Also, the presidential candidate of Labour Party, Peter Obi, was in 2019 a vice presidential candidate of PDP and his influence or political consideration in the Southeastern region could not be ruled out, looking at the performance of the party in 2019.

Since 1999, Southeastern states have always cast their votes for PDP at the presidential poll, but the situation may be different in 2023 as many voters in the region have vowed to support Peter Obi, who is a son of the region. Peter Obi was believed to be forcefully pushed out of PDP by Atiku Abubakar and the stance against PDP by Easterners is strong. Even, the Peter Obi's influence is not adding to Tinubu's votes but it will maximize his chance by depleting Atiku's votes.

Above all,out of the 13 State Governors of the 36 States, 5 have currently declared war against the presidential candidate of the party while the ruling party, APC, firmly holds her 22 States.

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As we considerably believe that PDP's chances is depleted by Kwankwaso and Peter Obi, none of these presidential candidates has political stamina to win a presidential contest in the country. This is considerably an opportunity for Bola Tinubu to ascend to the seat of Presidency in 2023 with no much political challenge than what he is currently going through the campaign.


Tinubu's Antecedence and the Political Options before many Political Heads in the Country

As a former Executive Governor of Lagos, Bola Tinubu;s administrative performance and his relationship with other prominent politicians across the 36 states in the country could be considered an added advantage which will better position Tinubu as the next President of Nigeria.

The fact is that Tinubu has worked with and assisted so many politicians in the country that his political feet could not be matched by any living politician in the country, today. He has helped so many members of PDP, his main opposition party, when the party was at the climax of being collapsed by former leaders of the party who were so careless about the management of the party, then.

Tinubu's transformational ideas that has placed Lagos State ahead of other states in the country, since he became Governor of Lagos between 1999 and 2007 will surely, work in his favor. Also, those he might has helped politically, across political parties, will find his presidential ambition as an opportunity to kindly payback his benevolence.

Arguable though, Tinubu has convincingly supported many of his political followers and others in opposition parties to become Councillors, Local Government Chairmen, States House of Assembly members, State Governors, House of Representatives member, Speakers of the House, member of the Senate, Senate Presidents, Vice Presidents and President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Many political office holders who were illegally impeached were helped to regain their mandates by Tinubu as he was also instrumental to the installations of many traditional rulers across the country. He has helped peoples across business and professional quarters. Such antecedence will surely position him better to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari in 2023.


Peter Obi, Labour Party Presidential Candidate

Peter Obi, Labour Party Presidential Candidate

Financial Capacity

This is not peculiar to Nigerian democracy, the cost of running a presidential campaign is expensive and would, definitely, be affected by the financial capacity of the presidential candidate and his allies.

Although, the presidential candidate of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party, Atiku Abubakar, also has a very strong financial capacity, but considering the number of States, political office holders, business magnates and allies that would be supporting the presidential ambition of Tinubu, he would easily depose the financial chances of Atiku and this will further brighter his chances of becoming President of Nigeria in 2023.

We have seen, in the recent time, how much was donated by Tinubu's allies to the course of purchasing his Presidential Form in APC and what some business bodies have contributed to the course of his Presidential campaign, even from the Southeastern region where his political party was believed to be less popular. This is a sign that his chances of becoming President of Nigeria in 2023 could not be hinder by financial capacity.

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Political Sagacity

Like him or not, when it comes to rolling out a successful political sagacity, give it to Bola Tinubu. Arguable though, Tinubu is the only politician in Nigeria that has been active, successfully, since 1999 to date. He was a Governor in 1999 and deployed his political sagacity to ensure he deposed PDP from the central in 2015, becoming the first time an opposition party would win presidential election in Nigeria.

Tinubu is versatile in giving the best approach to solving political problems and ensuring the actualization of his political ambition. In his profile, Tinubu has never contested and lose any elective position in his life. Considerably, looking at how he rolled out outstanding strategies that won him the presidential ticket of his party, APC and the political steps he is currently taking ahead of the 2023 presidential election, no doubt, Tinubu is still in control of the political manipulations ahead of the 2023 presidential poll and he stands a better stance of ascending to the throne of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

This content reflects the personal opinions of the author. It is accurate and true to the best of the author’s knowledge and should not be substituted for impartial fact or advice in legal, political, or personal matters.

© 2022 Ibraheem Sikiru Adekunle

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