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Dangerous Game in Ukraine

As an independent writer, my aim is to contribute to the emergence of a real atmosphere of democracy and freedom in the country.


"Ukraine should stop using our name. If a state buys SİHAs from us, it is no longer a Turkish product. Maybe it was produced in Turkey, but it belongs to Ukraine."

This foreign policy adaptation of Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, 'The S-400s are no longer a product of Russia. It may have been produced in Russia, but it is also used in arguments saying it belongs to Turkey. Cavusoglu could not slow down and said, "Sometimes, during our fight against terrorism in different countries, we come across different weapons from different countries, including Russia. We never blame Russia." We do not know how Russia officially sold weapons to the places that Cavusoglu mentioned. However, it should not be surprising if it is said that "we do not blame you for supplying weapons to the YPG" so that the Americans will not be taken. In fact, this assessment is based on the 'Osman Kavala' declaration of 10 Western ambassadors, "I told my friends to 'put their place'"

I can't decide whether to attribute these strange rhetoric of Turkish foreign policy to Ankara's inability to read the picture in front of it, or to its desire to be one of the colors of the picture. It is certain that the US and the Russian Federation, which is run every time they become a priest, will take Turkey's actions seriously, not these rhetoric. And far beyond the one in Syria...
Ankara, which could not achieve the desired dialogue with the USA in the first 10 months under the Biden administration, may not have found the necessary conditions to prove its loyalty to NATO membership through 'Kabil airport management'. The USA sends the NATO alliance to Asia against China as a 'great power competition' strategy, but it does not leave the square empty against its main rival Russia in Europe, while the Turkish 'military' presence in Ukraine, the most important front, is well felt.

Turkish Weapons Are Prohibited to Use in Donbass

Last week, the Ukrainian army released videos showing the use of Bayraktar TB2 SİHA (armed unmanned aerial vehicle) purchased from Turkey for combat purposes in the Donbass region, where it refuses to implement the Minsk Agreements. He then confirmed the footage and stated that these reconnaissance and offensive weapons were fired around the village of Granitnoye, close to the city of Mariupol. The justification was put as the shooting of the Ukrainian army positions with howitzers and the death of a soldier. The Ukrainian army ordered TB2s in 2019 and used them in observation flights this year. We don't know if Turkish personnel took part in Wednesday's assault firing.

Ukraine's drone attack is a clear violation of the ceasefire and Minsk agreements. Because the use of UAV / SİHA on the contact line was specifically prohibited. Only the OSCE Observation mission has the right to use unarmed UAVs. Germany and France, who remained silent to the routine violations of Kiev by striking civilian settlements in Donbass, angered the administration in Kiev just because they shyly reminded them of this situation as the guarantors of the Minsk agreement. Ukraine, of course, is the place where the USA's horn blows, not Germany and France.

Ukraine is a difficult subject for those who think they brought the 'end of history' in 1989 and are eager to 'start from 1990'. It can be summarized that a country that was one of the most important parts of the Soviet Union resulted in the division of a country in the 21st century in the American 'colorful' regime change operation and a regime in which the Banderists, who praised the Nazis, were power partners. Ukraine is a land that symbolizes the return of the USA's search for new missions with NATO in 30 years.

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The US administrations did not fail to give their support to the neofascist partnership regime in Kiev, which lost the Donbass region in the southeast with the 2014 Square coup. Guns were pumped abundantly into Ukraine, including in the Trump era. While Russia has put Ukraine a 'red line' against NATO's openly stated goal of promoting 'containment', Moscow has 'polled' over Kiev's NATO membership. The crisis escalated again in the spring, soon after Biden took office earlier this year, who bragged about firing the attorney general who investigated his son's dirty laundry in Ukraine three or five years ago. Russia responded with large-scale exercises in Ukraine and its territory adjacent to the Donbass. And then the crisis was 'interrupted' when Biden met with Putin in Geneva.

'Black Sea as Us National Security'

However, the new theme of the USA's ambitious return to 'world leadership' within the framework of 'great power competition' is now clearly the Black Sea, outside of China. Ukraine is the most effective tool on this road. As a matter of fact, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin made a tour of Georgia and Ukraine, which ended in Romania, before the last NATO defense ministers meeting in Brussels. On this occasion, Tbilisi and Kiev not only denied that Russia could prevent their membership in NATO, but also raised their hands by putting their targets as 'Black Sea US national security'. As a matter of fact, while the master plan to squeeze Russia out of the Black Sea was approved at the NATO defense ministers meeting, the NATO dialogue with Russia, which was working blindly, was ended.

These are the moves Russia will be waiting for. Russia knows that the calls to 'do not fill the warehouses of the neofascist regime in Kiev' have no equivalent in the USA. Rather, they warn Berlin and Paris, which do not know how to deal with new troubles on European soil. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's words that "diplomacy is not enough to stop NATO's eastward expansion" echoes Russian leader Putin's earlier words that 'the state of Ukraine's statehood will come to an end'. In Turkish, the Donbass of Kiev is lost forever like the Crimea.

The new element of this familiar equation is Turkey, which is deepening its defense cooperation with Eastern Europe. With the use of TB2, it seems that US Assistant Secretary of Defense Laura Cooper did not need to call on Ankara to lift restrictions on arms sales to Ukraine for allied countries. While Ankara sells its favorite UAV/SİHA technology to Poland and Ukraine in line with the NATO perspective, it becomes a party to the Donbass crisis for Moscow.

As a matter of fact, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that the supply of these UAVs to Kiev after the latest attack justified his concerns that the situation in the southeast of the country would worsen. While Lavrov said that they were examining the information that Bayraktar SİHAs were used, Ankara was the direct address of the emphasis "However, of course, history should make everyone who accepts Ukraine's capricious demands think".

Moscow may be content with noting that the Erdogan administration, which makes Turkey a part of the Crimean Platform, questions the elections in the Russian Federation over Crimea. However, it is difficult to expect them to remain silent with the 'everybody sells arms to everybody' setting on military involvement in the Donbass conflict as part of NATO's strategy to openly extend into the Black Sea. It is obvious that we will not be delayed in seeing the effects of Turkey in every field of relations with Russia.

It is clear that the move to revive the Ukraine/Donbass crisis once again aims to sabotage the opening of the Nord Stream-2 line, if the Biden administration does not risk a conflict with Russia that may have nuclear dimensions. American foreign policy makers probably do not think that Russia will make concessions in Donbass for the sake of this line. It's easy to get Ukraine out of the Donbass forever in order to have the Black Sea

This content is accurate and true to the best of the author’s knowledge and is not meant to substitute for formal and individualized advice from a qualified professional.

© 2021 ChubbyBimal

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