It is coming. The final showdown over Taiwan ever since they broke away in the late 1940's from its Communist brotherhood. Ever since then, America, has said it will not allow China to retake the renegade island by mainly arming the Taiwanese military with sophisticated weapons and even more so today in 2021.
Up until now, China has just been giving lip service about retaking it because they did not possess the strength militarily to do it. That has changed. Today, China, in many ways, is on par with the US military. Since 2010, China created its island bases in the South China Sea, which they claim is theirs. The West did nothing about it even as they voiced concerns about the build up, which is now complete. There is no way to regain them without major conflict.
In recent times, the Chinese have demonstrated they capabilities with hundreds of aircraft crossing over into Taiwan airspace that sent alarms out. They have have practice amphibious troop landings along mainland china, which would need to happen in order to seize Taiwan. Their capability continues to grow and be fine tuned with practice as everyone just waits. China has said that by 2025, they will most likely make the military move to retake the lost province that they have chanted about for many decades. Whether this is just propaganda in hopes that Taiwan will accommodate them or just a warning is only one's guess. But, with all the anti-China rhetoric, they have also said that they would like to resolve the issue peacefully.
Taiwan, for their part, does not want anything to do with it. They have said they will fight to the end with America's help. In most scenarios practiced by the US military, America will lose most of the time trying to help defend Taiwan. It will be a military for the US military and its allies in the region. At best, there might be a draw. China knows this and most of it favors China.
Everything is wrong for the US in this war. Taiwan is very close to China, the nearest US base is Japan. Absent nuclear bombs, the USN would be treading in dangerous waters with its carriers. China would no doubt attack the carriers but also bases in Japan and Guam. America could volley missiles into China and at their bases supporting the invasion effort, but how sustained would this be? China could also send missiles at Hawaii.
Is Taiwan worth it? The Chinese have seen how Biden handled getting out of Afghanistan in the disgraceful manner it was. They are not too afraid of the US military, although, they remain wary of what they do not know. Many Americans would not think Taiwan is worth sending in our military. Talk about "wars in far off places".
Taiwan might resist for a week or so, but the the evitable would happen over time as more and more Chinese troops arrive. As more and more the Taiwanese defenses would cease to exist and America bows out from its losses. The cost to the Chinese maybe great, but they do not care, it is irrelevant. The goal is what is important.
The real issue for the Chinese to decide upon is when. They have the "how-to" plan. Sensing US weakness and a lack of will, they know their window to invade is through 2024, when Biden is still in power. In 2025, if Trump should return, it is a more unpredictable scenario. There is also Chinese internal politics at play with the current president, as well as, military preparedness and capability, which improves every year.
While the 2025 invasion date set by the Chinese may be just BS, to scare Taiwan to the negotiation table (which has NOT remotely worked), it seems it could happen in 2022-24. Even the elimination of the Taiwanese president by the Chinese probably would not get them to the negotiation table.
Nothing will. That only leaves one thing.
- US has few good options if China seizes islands close to Taiwan, war game concludes - CNNPolitics
However, Army Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, backed away from growing assumptions the U.S. remains on a steady march to war with Beijing.
- China has debated attacking Taiwan-controlled islands, Taiwan official says | Reuters
A top Taiwan security official told lawmakers on Thursday that China had internally debated whether to attack Taiwan's Pratas Islands but will not do so before 2024, the year President Tsai Ing-wen's term ends.
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