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Brexit Survival

RoadMonkey did risk management in her career and also as part of her Ph.D studies. Brexit is a risk that we each need to manage personally.

Brexit Latest

This Hub takes no side on any of the Brexit options, listed below. It is totally non-partisan and will stick to assessing (as far as possible) the risks that may be around with a no-deal Brexit, the actions that individuals can take to minimise those risks for themselves (survive) and presenting facts, as far as they are known.

This Hub covers What Brexit Is, Risk Assessment, A Brexit Survival Journal and what to stockpile for a no-deal Brexit.

February 2020

The UK passed the legislation to leave the EU in December 2019, shortly after the Tories won the General Election on 12 December with a large majority. The EU passed the legislation agreeing that the UK could leave on 31 January 2020.

Currently, negotiations on a trade deal are underway, however, the UK has passed legislation stating that it will leave the EU on 31 December 2020, whether a deal has been agreed or not. This means that a "no deal Brexit" is still possible, some people would even say, likely! A paragraph on what this may mean has been added.

December 2019

At the start of December, the country is gearing up for a General Election. A paragraph on that and how this could affect Brexit has been added.

It does not tell you what you must do, it presents the risks and the options, so you can make your own decisions on what you will and will not do to prepare for Brexit, if anything.

Brexit Position February 2020

While the UK and the EU have both passed legislation agreeing that the UK is no longer part of the EU, the final break will not come until 31 December 2020. Currently negotiations are taking place on a trade deal between the two entities. This may, or may not, result in a deal. So the UK could still leave the EU via a "no-deal Brexit".

Michael Gove

Michael Gove MP is the Government Minister responsible for Brexit. During February 2020, he told the freight industry that they needed to prepare themselves for import controls being imposed by both the UK and the EU from 1 January 2021. He said that the freight industry needed to prepare itself because new bureaucracy and taxes would be imposed on both sides of the border and this would lead to delays, as duties and taxes were levied and safety of goods checked.

General Election 2019

Update 17 December 2019

The United Kingdom went to the polls on Thursday 12 December 2019 and the Conservatives won a large majority. This means that the United Kingdom will leave the European Union on 31st January 2020. This will not be the actual "leave" date, that will be negotiated during 2020 with (at the moment) the likely actual leave date being 31st December 2020, provided negotiations go smoothly. There is still a possibility of a no deal leave at 31st December 2020, if negotiations do not go well, however, that seems less likely now.

Pre-Election Notes

It is currently 4 December 2019 and the United Kingdom goes to the polls (votes in an election) on Thursday 12 December 2019. This election was called because the last Parliament was what is called a "hung" Parliament. This means that the Government did not have a majority for passing its legislation. A General Election was called to try and find a way through Brexit which was paralysing Parliament.

Political Parties

In the United Kingdom, there are two main political parties, the Conservatives (also known as the Tories) and Labour. The Tories would be roughly equivalent to the Republicans in the USA and Labour would be roughly equivalent to the Democrats in the USA.

There are a number of other parties too, the Liberal Democrats (LibDems), the Green Party (Greens), the Brexit Party and some parties that organise only in certain parts of the country, including the Scottish National Party (SNP in Scotland), Plaid Cymru (Plaid in Wales) and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP in Northern Ireland). There are many other smaller parties too.

While the Tories and Labour are the two biggest parties, the smaller parties can have a lot of influence by forming coalitions with the bigger parties if the larger parties do not have a big majority. The LibDems formed a coalition with the Tories for one Parliament some years ago. In the last Parliament, the Tories had only a very small majority of 3 at the start of the Parliament, which reduced to zero over time (deaths, resignations). They formed a "confidence and supply" agreement with the DUP to support them. The 10 DUP MPs agreed to support the Tory government in exchange for additional funds allocated to Northern Ireland. This is different from a coalition, as the DUP were not able to form part of the Government, unlike the LibDems in the previous Parliament.

Possible Election Results And Brexit Outcomes

1. A Conservative (Tory) Win Outright

The last Prime Minister, Boris Johnston, has said that every conservative candidate running in the election has promised to support his Brexit deal. If the Tories win an outright majority, this means that the Brexit deal negotiated by Mr Johnston during Autumn 2019 will be passed and the United Kingdom will leave the EU no later than 31 January 2020.

2. A Labour Win Outright

The leader of the Labour party, Jeremy Corbyn, has said that if Labour wins, he will negotiate a Brexit deal with the EU within a period of 6 months and then, a referendum will be held, giving the UK electorate the opportunity to choose between the Brexit deal negotiated by Mr Corbyn, or staying in the EU.

3. A Liberal Democrat Win Outright

The leader of the LibDems, Jo Swinson has said that the LibDems would repeal Article 50. This would stop Brexit altogether.

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4. A Hung Parliament

It is possible that no one party will win an outright majority. There are a number of smaller parties in the election and some of those may win or lose seats that they currently hold. There is a movement in the country to ask people to vote a different way from what they have normally voted and some parties have removed their candidates from the elections in various seats, to give other parties a better chance.

Likely Coalitions And Alliances

If there is a hung Parliament, and polls being held daily currently suggest this may happen, then some parties may naturally form alliances with others to try and form a Government. There is also the possibility of a minority Government but that has happened only once, many years ago and not in circumstances like these.

Believing The Polls

Pollsters and survey companies have lost a lot of credibility recently. Their predictions for the last General Election were wrong. Some polling organisations have been suspected of working of behalf of political parties instead of being neutral. Also, polls and surveys are expensive, so even reputable survey companies take sample polls and extrapolate the results. The problem is, that so many people are worked up about Brexit, so many people are changing their vote and so many people have decided to register to vote for the first time, that it may well be impossible to extrapolate correctly from samples.

One other way of checking how the wind blows could be to look at the odds offered by the gambling organisations and by how the stock market is moving and the exchange rate for the pound.against the dollar and the euro.

The GBP is currently at $1.31, which is considerably up from some weeks ago. It is also up against the Euro. The gambling organisations appear to show a Tory win.

But then, while the favourite often wins the horse race, it isn't always guaranteed and that's what makes betting highly attractive to many people. It's what will make the election results unmissable television on Polling day!

First results will come in the early hours of Friday 13th December and by early morning on 13th December, the United Kingdom should know what their next Government will be like, if it is a majority, though there may still be uncertainty if there is another hung Parliament.


Risk Is Part Of Life

The Possibility Of Risk Turning Up

The Possibility Of Risk Turning Up

What Is Brexit? A Short Introduction

The United Kingdom of Great Britain, and Northern Ireland (UK) is currently (November 2019) a member of the European Union (EU). In 2016, the UK held a referendum on whether to leave the European Union or stay. Those who voted were split almost 50:50 with a small majority in favour of leaving. The UK and EU have held discussions on the method of leaving but nothing has been finally agreed.

An original date of 29th March 2019 was set for leaving the EU (Article 50). This was extended by a few weeks and then a third date for leaving the EU was set at 31 October 2019, with the new Prime Minister, Boris Johnston, stating when he was appointed in July 2019 that this Brexit date was final and the UK would leave on that date, agreement or no agreement. Parliament did not agree with the UK leaving the EU without a deal and a further extension to the leaving date was agreed with the EU for 31st January 2020. A General Election has since been called for 12th December 2019.

There has been a lot of acrimonious debate since the referendum result was announced, with arguments covering the full spectrum from

  • leaving the EU with no agreement (no deal Brexit);
  • leaving the EU with a deal, even if that means postponing Brexit again;
  • holding a second referendum on a deal to be negotiated;
  • scrapping Brexit;
  • holding a General Election

There are other flavours within these, notably around what is called the Northern Ireland backstop - which would guarantee no hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, as set out in the Good Friday Agreement.

Brexit Divorce

British Exit From The EU

British Exit From The EU

Brexit Meaning

The word "Brexit" was coined after the referendum result in 2016. It is what is called a "portmanteau" word, where two words are combined into one. The "Br" portion comes from "British" and it is added to "exit" to form "Brexit" - meaning British Exit from the EU.

Your Views On Brexit

Brexit Risk Assessment

It doesn't matter whether you voted to leave or remain in the referendum in June 2016, or whether you have now changed your mind, nor what you think should happen next - second referendum, people's vote, general election, no deal Brexit or a managed Brexit for instance. Everything may or may not change after the General Election on 12th December 2019.

The government put billions of pounds into preparing for Brexit on 31st October 2019 but much of that preparation was wasted, as Brexit did not happen. For instance, millions of leaflets were printed and distributed, commemorative 50p coins were created and will now have to be melted down again but some of that planning will remain, such as 3 months stock of food in warehouses. Until the result of the General Election on 12 December, it is not known whether different plans will be needed or even none at all! While politicians will continue to argue, it is important for ordinary people to prepare for whatever happens. To do that, you need to know what the risks are.

Financial

Economically, financial exchange rates can change, affecting the prices of imported goods, especially oil. For instance, the exchange rate for the pound against the dollar and the Euro after the referendum result was announced led to the pound weakening. This meant imported goods and oil become more expensive and the cost of foreign holidays increased. On the other hand, it also meant that British goods were cheaper and could sell better abroad. Currently the exchange rate has strengthened considerably since no deal Brexit was removed, at least until 31st January 2020 or possibly 31st December 2020.