With the peace prospects dimming daily after years of going nowhere, it seems round two of the Ukrainian-Russian war is coming soon. The weather is good and the anger from Putin over President Biden's "Killer" remarks simmers on boil. The Ukrainian Army is mostly a pathetic lot of half trained or not trained soldiers that are poorly paid. Their weapons are mostly dated Soviet weapons. They are patriotic in their trenches but know all to well that if Russia really wants to, it could, take much of the Ukraine, or at least a larger portion.
Thus, NATO intelligence is getting nervous about what they are seeing across the border- another huge buildup of soldiers and weapons claimed to be for a upcoming wargame for practice. What has been seen is that some 28 new tactical battalion sized units appear along the border region and the Russian units in the Crimea put of alert. There have been demonstrations in over 100 Ukrainian towns against Putin and has been growing. This is no doubt irritating him further.
While the Ukrainian forces fair well against the pro-Russian forces (separatists), most have Russians in them also as advisers. Ukrainian forces matchup poorly when it comes to facing Russian military units, of which, are mostly special forces variety or mercenaries that are well paid. In a wargame I created, which poses that another Ukraine war will occur directed at Kharkov, the Ukrainians really are up against the wall, as the geography does not favor defenses since Russians can cross the border from many directions. It would be only a matter of time until Ukraine would bid for peace unless NATO got involved.
Well, NATO would be involved. Already, Ukraine is asking for NATO troops to be ready including those from Turkey. Troops from Turkey is rather bizarre, since Turkey and Russia are facing off in Libya but allied in Syria! Turkey has promised Ukraine at least 7,000 Turk mercenaries under their name, National Army, and each will be paid $4,000 to go fight with Ukraine. This is more than those fighting in Libya.
Should Russia seek to expand their area in the Ukraine, it will be a personal test for Biden. It will be a face-off between Biden and Putin through national military units. Would America actually send troops to bolster the Ukrainians? Just send token air force units? Would NATO sacrifice their limited numbers of troops to save Ukraine?
I tend not to think so, but we may see soon.
perrya (author) on April 11, 2021:
Well, the test will come when China or Russia makes a move and I think they will as they see Biden as weak
MG Singh emge from Singapore on April 11, 2021:
Biden seems to have become senile. I am watching his antics which amount to degrade of his cognitive ability. I don't see him addressing the China threat which is real.