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An Anchor of Stability in Arab World and Middle East in Current Strategic Game

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The current status of Arabs in the strategic game in the Middle East is Pro-Western except Syria and Iran. We call it the Arabs strategy of the Middle East. All the active participants which are currently involved playing a strategic role allied with superpowers or because of situational tidal are non-Arabs.

  1. Israel
  2. Turkey
  3. Iran

All the proxies and countries all over the Middle East were directly or indirectly helped by them. A challenging situation for Arabs. Arabs bear superpowers, but with these regional powers, it is hard for them to watch them ruling on the Middle Eastern throne. The atmosphere is very complex Arabs confronting them on many fronts and also ally with them or have a mutual understanding with them on many fronts. The Arab World was destabilized after the second Gulf War and its anchor of stability detached from the ship and the ship bearing the storm surges. The anchor of stability in the Middle East is the style of the government, which is autocratic or monarchist style. The democratic style always is a rioter monster. As the entire Arab world is under autocratic or monarchist regimes and where democracy rule there is a conflict. So it is a kind of competition between Arabs and non-Arabs and their approaches towards strategic goals. West does not care about democratic values or human rights it just strategic goals and rivals that have the same type of strategy. One thing in which the West is a master regime change that is the only thing that worries the Arab rulers of the Middle East. Tunisia and Egypt are the first experimental of Arab Spring. Egypt’s democracy failed and coup d’état of Morsi’s Freedom and Justice Party and Sisi took the charge. For Tunisia, the power gap between people and governing authorities has been increased.

These authoritarian practices have given the birth of many nuisances as:

  1. Corruption
  2. Anarchy
  3. Injustice
  4. Divisions
  5. And worst of all, no creativity, just extraction of crude oil

And good points are:

  1. Out of bureaucratic dilemma
  2. Firm grip and control
  3. Economic prosperity

The whole Arabs world revolving around these facts but the problem is after Arab Spring the people are more rebellious and civil unrest prevailing. So the non-Arabs players now showing their intentions. Israel allied with the autocracy and monarchist regimes where Iran and Turkey have sectarian allies. The ideological division is deep in Arabs on religious matters where politically they are not deeply divided.

Arabs don’t have the time to react if there is a large conflict occurred in the Middle East. They have the equipment, but their armies are poorly trained. In a recent diagram, the Syrian were losing against proxies if Iranian help and Russian firepower never came then another Russian ally in the lap of the USA. Russian and Turkey saved their strategic leverage where the USA doesn’t need it already have. For Israel to play a strategic game more steadily, needs allies, Israeli strategic approach in the region is political and sectarian divisions to increase proximities with autocracies and monarchies because of one common enemy and common interests. The cracks are visible as Israel never wanted that sensitive technology are in the hands of Arabs mentioning the sale of F-35 to UAE and other Arabs states. Israel never wanted that anyone challenges its strategic dominance. Arabs know Israel’s weakness, which is its strategic depth, Israel felt it in the 1973 war, and the first time Arabs learned where they are superior. Arabs need technology to choke Israel's strategic dominance through strategic depth. This tassel is a headache for the USA, as both are important strategic allies. First, they fight against common enemy Iran, Iranian strategic move started in the 1982 war in the Strait of Hormuz. The second strategic move was started in the 1985 Lebanon war with the establishment of Hezbollah. In both ways, Iran strategically engaged with Arabs and Israel. The cracks of Arab-Israel enmity are slowly recovered while Iran-Israel and Iran-Arab cracks are wide with the intensity of conflicts in the region. So Arab strategic leverage shrinks choose USA or anti-USA it is also for the USA that everyone which is dealing with enemies is an enemy. It is more dangerous for the USA to lose allies. Arabs are also well informed about the weakness of Turkey and Iran, one is sectarian division and the second is numbers. Both have few allies in the region these weaknesses are salted out by cultural differences.

The culture is the only thing where no one can defeat the Arabs. The whole Arabs armies' strength is their weapon platforms, not manpower. The rivals can counter the edge, but cultural supremacy can't be counted because they all are influenced by the Arabic cultural values and language. Turkey, Iran, even Israel are all the parts and extensions of Arabic culture. The strategic balance of the Middle East showed how culture is more important than weapons, manpower, and economy. The culture could a weapon in war, as Middle Eastern history already showed. At the end of the Ottoman Empire in 1922, the British Empire intelligence mission was carried out by Thomas Edward Lawrence as Lawrence of Arabia. Leading the Arab revolt is all about cultural differences and cultural supremacy. Thomas Edward Lawrence uses the support of Sharif of Mecca against the Ottoman Empire. The cultural differentiation is the Arabic victory. The culture and ideology also gave birth to each other and impact each other deeply. Here we divided ideology and culture regarding each other.

  1. Religious Ideology
  2. Cultural Ideology
  3. The mix of Each According to Society's Demography and Anthropology

The first Arab revolt because of Cultural Ideology and the second was of Religious Ideology. These ideologies created a style or taste of government as an Authoritarian style of government. Now the authoritarian style of government has different types from which the Middle East adopted:

  1. Autocracy
  2. Monocracy

It is a historic adoption. Ba'ath Party and Arabs kingdoms are the main control holding of all monarchies and autocracies in The Middle East. These monarchies and autocracies save the economies of the Middle East. Every global power that wanted to safeguard its interests has to favor these styles of governments. Even both choose different blocks but after the world moving towards unipolar and in the recent era especially the cold war 2 new tussles of the new century USA and China tussles giving them another life to the interests. Global powers could be adjusted with these authoritarian regimes for Turkey, Iran, and Israel it is a complex situation. With the finest economies, the public mood toward these regimes is a little rebellious. More aggression showed in the current situation of Arab Spring, and if the regime changed to democracy, it is very weak and sooner caught by civil war or sectarian war.

It is time for Arab rulers to strengthen their agreement with the public for stability. The unity between Arab rulers another reason that slows down Iran and Turkey's penetration power. The economy is the chief strength of Arabs; they have military might, but a few countries have reliable military power. They also know the use of geopolitics and geography, but the situations of the regions diversified as there is more nucleus of power and all Arabs are not on one page. Divisions destroyed the old unity, and they are increased day by day. The sputnik move by Iran in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon and by Turkey in Syria and Qatar also worried the Arab regimes. The crucial point is sectarian war could be handled, but if it converted into sectarian plus tribal war, then the whole Middle East will go into chaos. Two ways to cool down the heat of sectarian war in the Middle East:

  1. Economic
  2. Political and Diplomatic Ways

The economic prosperity of the Middle East saved it from complete disaster. Weak economic conditions in Syria and Iraq led them to disaster. The economic prosperity and equality in economic condition or assisting economically may end the chaos in the Middle East. Arab League must start the steps and expanded the economic ability of the Middle East. The Oil Economy could be positive of healing bandage for the Middle East, but the power play by global powers and key players and their power play game as Dollar-Petro, Arabs gave their own weakness into their enemy’s hands. New economic opportunities could be produced if Israel and Arab intimacy increased. This is all because of the success of diplomacy, geopolitics, and political activity. All and a sudden not happened decays involved in this fresh development cracks in the Arab world and they are all moving toward additional dimensions of help and power. Second thing: rivals are becoming more influential because of:

  1. Stretched of Power and Influence.
  2. Direct and Indirect Rivalry between Contenders.
  3. Historic Background and Conflicts.
  4. New Realities of the World. (new power center of the world.

In all the above situations, for Arabs economics and Diplomacy becoming more valuable to handle any situation. The growing numbers of conflicts in the region and rebellions in the region cause a threatening bogyman face and the key players playing chaos with each other. It does not mean that Arabs are not playing chaos games; they are also playing with each other and with their rivals.

  1. Regime Changing
  2. Civil Unrest
  3. Extremism
  4. Rebellions and Insurgency
  5. Economic Sanctions

These are the main practices of playing a chaotic strategic game. So the anchor of stability is very unstable against these practices. Autocracies and monocracies of the Middle East fell one by one against the practices and many states of the Middle East are still in a state of chaos. These tactics are used by every single participant of the game. Chaos is the chief weapon that is used by Israel, Iran, and Turkey, and global powers. As Israel does not want the USA to provide sensitive technology to Arabs, in any future confrontation between Arabs and Israel that means its own technology is used against it. Turkey used the political points and sectarian points in the Middle East. Iran used Ideology based on sectarian divisions. Same the global power has interests in the Middle East. If the USA refuses to give the F-35 to UAE, then UAE has the Chinese and Russian offers. Past witnessed when USA refuses KSA for supplying short-range ballistic missile, KSA approaches China for M-11 short-range ballistic missile and China provided. Arabs know every player’s weakness, but they are weaker than the players. With every passage of time, players showed their dominance on every matter of the Middle East. The real problem which the Arab World face is divisions. Here the authoritarian regimes showed their worries, and that is the only weak point at which rivals are on the upper hand. Arabs need 40-50 years to settle the mistakes by time is very short. Arabs need time in two aspects:

  1. Technology Acquirement
  2. Remove the Divisions Between People and Regimes and Regimes among Themselves

You can say Time is the only weakness the Arabs have. Moving towards rivals, Iran, Turkey, and Israel in previous articles, it has briefly discussed the three rivals. A little briefing on what Arabs know about them and their weakness? Start with Israel, the old enemy has one weakness. The Strategic Depth, whole Israeli policy revolves around gaining the strategic depth, the old days gone when Israeli military might resolving this problem. Politics, diplomacy, and economy are the main pivots which they used now. Diplomatic relations and providing favorable economic opportunities and accepting their role in geopolitics are the main gaining points of Israeli efforts. More allies in the region, more flexible Israel in attaining its goals. Iranian major weakness is the anti-Iranian revolutionary elements inside Iran. Iran using the divisions between Arabs and sectarian wars in the region. But a few allies and Iran overcome this weakness using its geography. The divisions in Iran are on the threshold where Iran pays the price and Arabs used it fairly. Turkey's only weakness is it has very few allies in the region costs its strategic goals deeply. Turkey's political crush also cost Turkey diplomatically in the world. Arabs widen these diplomatic cracks, creating more worries for turkey.

Arabs are well informed about their rival’s capacitance, but their own divisions are hindered against their strategic goals. All strategic advantages are still in their pockets. They just need to be used at the right time, and unity is the primary tool of their survival in the region. All Arabs whether the authoritarian regime or democratic they just need to join their voices otherwise their rivals with little strategic advantages took the lion's share. To get their lion share unity is the key to dominate the region, diplomatically, strategically, geographically, and geopolitically they need to be united.

This content reflects the personal opinions of the author. It is accurate and true to the best of the author’s knowledge and should not be substituted for impartial fact or advice in legal, political, or personal matters.

© 2021 nomi haider

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