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American Professor Helmut Northpoth Projects Donald Trump Has 91% Chance of Winning 2020 Election

A senior Air warrior and a PG in management and law is well qualified to write on contemporary Legal matters


Coming election

The coming presidential election to be held during November 20 has generated not only interest but also controversy. Generally, we have seen that a sitting president has an advantage over the challenger, and in most cases, for the last 100 years, the sitting president has been able to win. The last upset was in 1992 when Bush sr, lost to Bill Clinton and that is 28 years back.

One is tempted to say that Donald Trump who is the sitting president has an advantage. But these are extraordinary times and something called the China virus or the coronavirus or whatever you call it has changed the equation.

More than 130,000 Americans have died and this is double the number of Americans who died in three years of fighting during the First World War or the number of dead in America's longest-running war in Afghanistan.

The situation is serious and at this critical point where the number of people affected continues to rise and the economy has suffered a dip, this election is taking place.

All reports indicate that Joe Biden is ahead in percentage points among the American people over President Donald Trump. But there is some cause of worry that though he is leading in most of the states yet in the swing states his lead is not all that perceptible. Another facet of the survey is that the American public feels that Donald Trump is the better man to handle the economic scenario. This will be the key to the victory or defeat of Donald Trump.

They are however some scientists and researchers whose analysis must be given some consideration for the simple reason that they have been proved right earlier. One of the analysts is Stony Brook Professor Helmut Northpoth who has come up with some very startling observations. Before I relate them it is important to understand that they are not gospel truth and this is an opinion only but at the same time as a discerning and intelligent man one must give some credibility to the man making this forecast.

Professor Northpoth has come up with a forecast which is entirely at variance with what the pollsters are predicting. He has predicted that President Donald Trump has a 91 % chance of winning the November 2020 election.

Normally one would not give any cognization to such a statement but the fact is that this political science professor has correctly predicted 5 out of 6 elections since 1996 Even in the last election in 2016 despite Hillary being the clear favorite, this professor had forecast a victory for Donald Trump.


Mr. Northpoth's prediction

The professor in an interview to Mediate magazine on Tuesday made the observation that the primary model which he follows gives Trump a 91% chance of winning the November election.

What is this primary model? Mr. Norpoth claims that his model, which he curated in 1996, has correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912 when primaries were introduced.

The model which is his brainchild calculates the winning candidate based on early presidential nominating contests. It takes into consideration the enthusiasm candidates are able to generate early in the nominating process.

If we follow his line of reasoning the former vice president Joe Biden is placed at a severe disadvantage. The reason is his losses in the party’s first two presidential nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.

The professor also said his model, predicted Trump’s victory in 2016, as he discounted opinion surveys.

He points out that polls had forecasted a Hillary Clinton victory but the opposite happened.

The prediction comes as a number other election models have suggested that Trump will lose to Biden as a result of a number of factors including the ongoing pandemic.

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A national election model by Oxford Economics has predicted that Donald Trump will suffer a “historic defeat” in November’s election due to the coronavirus economic recession.

Another forecast by the Washington Post predicted Trump will receive only 24 percent of the electoral college votes, but only on the condition that the economy and the president’s approval rating continues its downward trajectory.

However in Mr. Norpoth's model, not only brings out that the president is re-elected, but he will expand his margin in the electoral college from 304 electoral votes in 2016 to 362 in 2020.

The one thing most people agree on is that the election could rest crucially on Trump’s leadership of the US through the coronavirus pandemic and how he tackles public health and the economy in the upcoming months.

Last word

There is another professor who has correctly predicted every US presidential election since 1984. He is Prof Allan Lichtman who says virus outbreak could be the final straw that ends Trump's presidency in November. In the last election, Prof Lichtman had correctly predicted the victory of Trump.

However, he is not making any clear forecast this time and says the 2020 election is so-far too close to call, but that a damaged economy may swing the result.

All these readings and forecasts will interest all those who are following the presidential election very closely. The one thing that stands out is that there is a many a slip between the cup and the lip and that refers to both Biden and Trump. In case the economy can pick up slightly I think there is nothing that is going to stop Trump from sitting again in the White House. The only way he can lose is if the economy goes down further and there is greater economic hardship.

In that case, Biden would stand a chance of going ahead. Again this is not cut and dried as Biden may win the popular vote but Trump may still sit in the white house. This is because of the peculiar makeup of the Electoral College. We must remember that Trump has a committed core supporter base and they will vote for Trump.

With four months still away, I would put my money on Trump.He may be considered a clown or a maverick and he sees everything through the business men's angle yet if he can pull through the virus and stabilize the economy that will ensure his entering the Oval Office

A professor who has correctly predicted every US presidential election since 1984 says that the coronavirus outbreak could be the final straw that ends Donald Trump’s presidency in November.

Allan Lichtman, a professor at American University, said that the 2020 election is so-far too close to call, but that a damaged economy from concerns around a potential pandemic could add the final ingredient to flatten Mr Trump’s re-election prospects.


MG Singh emge (author) from Singapore on July 24, 2020:

JOC, you have a point. Thank you

JOC from Syracuse, NY on July 24, 2020:

And then there's a state like Florida which has seen Democrats gain a 302,000 voter edge in vote-by-mail enrollment (1.4 million to 1.1.million). In 2016, that advantage was just 8,800. 87-90% of people who request a mail-in ballot, send them in, in a state that's pretty critical in 2020.

MG Singh emge (author) from Singapore on July 24, 2020:

Readmike, you have made an interesting observation that supports the theory of the professor. I also have a gut feeling that Donald Trump is going to be home dry and safe. Frankly, between the two I would prefer Trump because there's a saying -the known devil is better than the unknown devil

Readmikenow on July 24, 2020:

Interesting article. I've worked on elections in the past. There are a number of factors you take into consideration. There are the number of party registrations, Republicans are way up in that category. There is the performance of people running for office that are supported by the president. President Donald Trump is winning in that category. There are also cross-over registrations. That is people who are registered for one party, but switch to the other party. The Republicans are way up in that category. There is not much enthusiasm for Joe Biden by the Democrats. There is also a way to calculate this. When you do take in all the factors...President Donald Trump should easily win reelection. All this information was available during the last presidential election, the Democrats chose to ignore it and only live within their bubble. This is their problem right now. They only want to see statistics that tell them what they want to hear. They ignore reality and are angry at it when it isn't what they want. What a shame.

MG Singh emge (author) from Singapore on July 23, 2020:

Thanks, maybe what you say may be true. I haven't seen this movie but since you have mentioned I must see it.

Robert Sacchi on July 23, 2020:

Yes, it seems they are going to push for large scale absentee ballots. Dead people may decide the election. Have you ever seen "Gangs of New York"?

MG Singh emge (author) from Singapore on July 23, 2020:

That 20% will decide the result, COVID, or no COVID.

Robert Sacchi on July 23, 2020:

That is interesting. In the U.S. roughly 40% of the people who vote have one world view and 40% have the opposite world view. The other 20% is fickle.

MG Singh emge (author) from Singapore on July 23, 2020:

Thanks, JOC, for your opinion. We have to wait till November

JOC from Syracuse, NY on July 23, 2020:

If his model takes into account enthusiasm, he better add some numerical factors in for the amount of people enthused to vote Donald Trump out of office this fall. That number is going to dwarf those that want him re-elected.

MG Singh emge (author) from Singapore on July 22, 2020:

No, there is no gerrymandering or manipulation. It's just people have faith in one party which is delivering the goods.

Robert Sacchi on July 22, 2020:

That is interesting. Is gerrymandering a factor?

MG Singh emge (author) from Singapore on July 21, 2020:

The Constitution is modelled on the English constitution. There is no bar to an opposition but somehow the opposition does not win any seats in Singapore where right from the time of Independence it is the PAP party that is in power.

Robert Sacchi on July 20, 2020:

Is it the Constitution prevents another party or are opposition parties weak and divided?

MG Singh emge (author) from Singapore on July 20, 2020:

The political situation here can be termed one party democracy. The PAP has ruled since 1959 and won every election. But it's nice to live here and almost crime free. There is strong support for Taiwan.

Robert Sacchi on July 20, 2020:

What's the political situation in Singapore?

MG Singh emge (author) from Singapore on July 19, 2020:

Very correct. It's the same in all democracies and what counts is the sentiment on that day.

Robert Sacchi on July 19, 2020:

The old saying is the only poll that counts is the one on election day. There are also other oddities with the U.S. electoral process. Someone who predicts the side who can't win to be the winner stands to be famous if they predict correctly. If they predict wrong their error will be forgotten. It's the fortune teller routine.

MG Singh emge (author) from Singapore on July 18, 2020:

Robert, the present election is full of uncertainties. I wonder how true the forecast of this professor will work out because the latest polls show Trump lagging far behind Biden.

Robert Sacchi on July 15, 2020:


MG Singh emge (author) from Singapore on July 14, 2020:

Robert, many a slip between the cup and the lip

Robert Sacchi on July 14, 2020:

Yes, I remember about a telephone poll in 1932 that showed Hoover would be the winner. The flaw in that poll was people who still had a phone were doing relatively well. At the time people who weren't doing well either never had a phone or had theirs disconnected.

MG Singh emge (author) from Singapore on July 14, 2020:

Thanks, Robert, predictions are the flavor of the season!

Robert Sacchi on July 13, 2020:

An interesting prediction. One sport they have here in the states is to find a locality that voted for the winner in every election since whenever and play up how they are going to vote.

MG Singh emge (author) from Singapore on July 12, 2020:

Hi Flourish, Nice of you to have commented, you mean Trump has driven us into the ditch?

MG Singh emge (author) from Singapore on July 12, 2020:

Pamela, yes, that is important but I have my doubts the economy will pick up with all these fresh cases of the virus coming up.

FlourishAnyway from USA on July 12, 2020:

People won’t be back to work and kids surely won’t be back to school because the pandemic is upon us. He’s driven us into the ditch.

Pamela Oglesby from Sunny Florida on July 12, 2020:

This is an interesting article MG. I remember the 2016 polls that were wrong. I think you picked the most important factor which is the economy. If people are back to work and chidren are in schoo, that wil go a long way. l

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