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America Cannot Defend Taiwan Against A Chinese Invasion

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China recently boasted that should they invade Taiwan to retake the runaway province island, America would be unable to do much to prevent it. That is because of proximity. The closest American bases are in Japan, then Guam, then Hawaii. Unless the attack happened while the USN was in the Straits or much closer, the US could do little to prevent a slaughter. Taiwanese defenses are miniscule when compared to China and it would only be a matter of time before Taiwan surrendered from losses, lack o resources, and resist.

In the most recent war game on the subject, the Blue team (American forces) failed miserably trying to prevent and deploy forces from so far away. America suffered devastating losses when trying to defend Taiwan. China (Red Team) knew what the Americans did before they did it after years of studying. They, as one General said, ran rings around the Blue Team. Part of the problem for the Americans was a lack of intel and information about the Red team. The Blue team lost rapidly in the war game that simulates the upcoming battle with the forces known. The F-35 proved to be useless and the American logistics was a nightmare because units needed to be resupplied as logistic bases were under missile attack. Within a week, many of the US assets needed refueling, ammunitions, etc., which became difficult when logistical hubs were in ruin or had reduced capacity.

As for the Red team, the initial attack on Taiwan was sudden with their short range DF-16 ballistic missiles that destroyed airbases, airfields, early warning radar, command centers and anti-missile systems. This continued until Chinese troops had landed on the shores. Taiwanese facilities not destroyed by the first strike would be bombed by H-6 bombers and J-16 fighters while cruise missiles unleashed for bases, ammo sumps, communication centers and road junctions.

All this happened within a few days of opening. By the time American and allied forces had gathered and assessed actions to take, Taiwan was near the breaking point. The Taiwanese naval base at Tag Suao was in ruin, as was the International Airport. The Ching Chuan AB was no longer operable.

The Blue team was limited in their actions to take in face of this sort of barrage. Sure, America could attack China itself but that would cause escalation on the US mainland. Was America willing to lose its men and ships\aircraft defending the overwhelming odds so far away from its bases? The Red team threatened Japan and Australia with ICBM's, that seemed enough to persuade them to stay out of it. Knowing that China's ICBM's could hit Guam and Hawaii was also a consideration the Blue team dealt with. Again, was the loss worth trying to defend Taiwan from Chinese re-occupation?

Within a week's time, Taiwan was finished and back under China's control. Devastation was horrible and in the end, it was clear to America's Joint Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, America could not defend Taiwan as promised unless there are some serious changes and plans regarding this coming war.

For America, it was back to the drawing board, as they say.


perrya (author) on July 30, 2021:

And I agree, India and China have a lot of bad blood between them since 1962, and how things shape up along the Indo-chinese border as they try to retake taiwan could alter outcomes, but, this most recent wargame on the Taiwan issue either did not address side issues likes India-China or it did not impact the main objective or its outcome. While the US has 4000 nukes to 200 of China, it remains unclear whether the US would be willing to use any if only Taiwan was attacked with tactical nukes. I am sure China is not naïve about fighting on multiple fronts and they have been preparing.

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MG Singh emge from Singapore on July 29, 2021:

Perya, the scenario painted by you is unrealistic and I can tell you I have some knowledge about the Chinese military. The first thing I must tell you is the morale problem that became apparent in the northern border when they were facing the Indian army, which has now over 200,000 troops lined up against the Chinese. The one-child policy of China played havoc with the military as well. 40% of the Chinese army conscripted and thousands of families have just one son who has to serve a four-year term in the army and in case the boy dies the family tree is finished. This seriously affected the Chinese morale. You have made an assumption that China will have a free for all in the western sector and in the eastern sector, nothing is going to happen. This is not the case because the Tibetan government in exile is waiting for an opportunity. I'm not sure the latest military thinking on China but when I was there two strike corps of the Indian army are to strike towards Lhasa. The Chinese are aware of it and they also know the Tibetan people are opposed to their occupation so it is their Achilles' heel. The war with China will only be a conventional war and not a nuclear exchange because that would result in MAD. Don't write off the USA so fast as the USA is now in a strategic partnership with India and it is basically against China. Mark my words my friend everything is not so simple as you make it and there are many complexities involved.

Sharlee on July 29, 2021:

I agree. However, I hope we can avoid any true battles.

perrya (author) on July 29, 2021:

This is akin to two school yard bullies. One was always feared and respected, the other, no so much, until the weaker got bigger and equally strong. China is that and wants to prove itself by standing up to the US. The US is seeing the writing on the wall and must be willing to stand up and stand their ground or face much loss of prestige and respect. Taiwan and South China sea are the battles coming.

Sharlee on July 29, 2021:

In my view there is no question if China wants to move in on Taiwan, they will. There is no one that will step up and make an open war-like attempt to stop them. Yes, the US would rattle chains, but that would be the extent. China is too powerful to handle anymore, their navy fleets are larger, and more developed in regard to techknowlogy.

A few weeks back Xi rattled chains with a threat heard around the world. --- "President Xi Jinping warned of the “unprecedented uncertainties” and challenges China was facing in its global ascendance during a nationalistic speech marking the centenary of the Communist Party in which he also pledged that foreign powers would “get their heads bashed” if they attempted to bully China."

It's a new playing field, and China is winning.

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