How this will all end is still pending. It all could still end in more horrific Taliban actions months and years to come. it still could take a very bad turn should rogue Taliban fighters who disagree with its leadership, fire and kill US troops or down a helicopter while at Kabul International Airport. The Americans still unable to reach the airport could all be killed, beheaded, but factions of the Taliban. Make no mistake about it, the Taliban are a group of tribes left over from their fight against Russia in 1980s who took control in the mid-1990s. They have fought against themselves before and now are all under one supreme leader? Even if a few fighters take it among themselves to kill Americans in any manner, even if their leaders order them not to, will send the wrath of American power.
While none of this has yet happened, there have been cracks in the leaders to control all Taliban fighters. Americans trying to enter the airport would no doubt not be allowed in. Even Afghans with passports are not allowing in at times. The Taliban leaders do not have total control over its fighters. But the Taliban have a huge problem- a real urbanized city of millions that had been free and women highly educated - a city that requires city employees to return to make the basic necessities to work. Will they compromise their religious beliefs for a more socially accepted position with the population they inherited? Protests have already happened and if they continue to grow, will pose a real problem. Despite what they say, they will some sort of International help to continue to operate not only a city, but a whole country. This IS beyond their experience and capability. Will the help be from Russia, China, or Pakistan?
Even worse is who will comprise of a Taliban government? Will Al Qaeda and ISIS be allowed to be part of this? We already know the Haqqani will be part of it.
The average Afghan soldier earned $185 mo., while a Taliban fighter is paid $300. Of the 350,000 Afghan army, 200,000 of them were "Ghost" soldiers on payroll only, not actually present.
And the weapons?
Before the collapse, the Afghan airforce had about 150 aircraft. Of these, four were C-130, 23 A-29 ground attack propeller, 45 UH-60, 50 MD-530 helicopters, and 30 Cessna single engines for travel. Hundreds of Afghan soldiers flew out of the country to escape in 22 planes and 24 helicopters. Experts state that the C-130s and UH-60, unless maintained, will cease working. The A-29s are not very sophisticated and could be maintained by trained mechanics since they are Brazilian made. In reality, the most dangerous weapons are Russian D-30 howitzer and 122mm artillery used in the army and now in Taliban hands. The Taliban know how to use them and now they have many more of them along with plentiful ammunition. Whatever tanks or APCs there are mostly old Russian ones. The drones captured probably will just be sold to Iran or someone for technology. As of 2017, the Afghan Army had 76,000 vehicles, 600,000 weapons and weapon systems. Specifically, 7000 machine guns, 4700 Humvees, 20,000 grenades, 5000 communication systems. Tons of various ammunitions, night vision goggles, and other infantry equipment will now have Taliban very well armed and supplied.
The Great Escape
During the collapse of the Afghan Army and Airforce, many were concerned about themselves. Three aircraft and two helicopters carried 143 troops to Tajikistan. Some 22 aircraft and 24 helicopters carried some 585 soldiers to their safety on August 14, 15th, to Uzbekistan. Also flying to safety were three A-29s and intercepted and escorted by Mig-29s. Instead of landing, these pilots ejected fearing they would shot down.
The Afghanistan of the future is going to be another, "hell on earth", on a very large scale.