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A Coup Against Putin? Life Has Many Surprises

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Introduction

The USSR which was the successor state to the Czarist empire collapsed in 1992. This was because of inherent contradictions accentuated by the communist philosophy which is basically a Nihilistic concept and resulted in an empire that was the biggest in world history disintegrating like a pack of cards. Vladimir Putin now appeared on the scene with an agenda to try and retrieve the old glory of the Soviet and Czarist empire. He played into the hands of the Americans who in any case were looking for a way to destroy Russian power in Europe.

By a combination of circumstances, they found a stooge in Zelensky and made Ukraine a frontline state against Russia. The idea was to fight a proxy war and not get involved. Putin played into the hands of the Americans and mounted an attack on Ukraine. The attack was very poorly planned and as a historian, I can say that Putin and his generals had no detailed plan with the requisite intelligence to conquer Ukraine and bring about a regime change.

The battle which was supposed to be over within 3 to 4 weeks has now dragged into the 10th month and the Russians have made minimal gains and in the bargain have lost a lot of manpower and material. These losses do not compensate for the small gains that the Russian army has made in eastern Ukraine. It must be noted that in the earlier attack in North Ukraine on Kyiv and Kharkiv, the Russians had suffered a defeat and retreated.



Carefully cultivated image

Carefully cultivated image

Putin's prestige

Putin always imagined himself as a successor to Joseph Stalin. He is however not a patch on the Soviet dictator and bungled at every step in Ukraine. He had created for himself a larger-than-life image of a man who will restore the old glory of Czarist Russia and the USSR. The Russian people were fed on the propaganda that Russia was a global power and in a way invincible and the campaign in Ukraine would be the beginning of Russian glory in Europe.

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However 10 months down the line, the Russian army has shown to be a weakling and the Russian economy has tanked. The people are bewildered as to how their mighty army could not even subdue Ukraine. The fighting has continued for 10 months with the end nowhere in sight. There are also thousands of casualties and these dead bodies going home have had a negative effect on the Russian population, where in any case there is an imbalance between the male-female ratio as more than 20 million Russian men died fighting the Germans in World War II.

Many Russians have also noted that the United States has been able to gang up most of the global countries against Russia and the feeling of siege is creeping into the country. With mounting deaths of young men and an economic slowdown has made the Russians think that Vladimir Putin is not what he claims to be.

I have a report from Russia that many of the common Russian citizens are pretty disillusioned with the leadership of Putin and would be very happy in case he can be removed. Russia is a democracy yet it is not transparent and Putin continues to hold all the strings of power. Opposition to him is muted and those who were vociferous are carted away to prison.

Average Russian must be wondering, how come the so-called invincible Russian army has not only suffered so many casualties but has not been able to make much headway in Ukraine though 10 months have elapsed. This is fertile ground for the removal of Vladimir Putin but it is not something that is easy.

Future

The future is extremely dangerous there is an option that a section of the military may gang up and remove Putin. They will have the support of the people but Putin is a fighter and he's not likely to throw in the towel easily as he has a lot of support still in the military. He could be like a cornered tiger and be very dangerous.

French President Macron had once said that a defeated Russia would be very dangerous and one sincerely hopes that this doesn't come true because in case the Russian people are disillusioned and Russia loses face in Ukraine, Putin could resort to a nuclear strike. The Americans who are fighting the proxy war in Ukraine must keep these facts in their brain.

There is no easy solution to the Ukraine problem and it will require a statesman to see that the world does not have a nuclear clash.

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