Val is a life-long practically oriented student of effective emotional and attitudinal responses to the many challenges of life.
If someone doesn't value evidence, what evidence are you going to provide to prove that they should value it. If someone doesn't value logic, what logical arguments could you provide to show the importance of logic.
-- Sam Harris
A "Pandemic" of Sub-Logical Reasoning
In face of all discrepancies surrounding this new "pandemic", it would be silly not to consider something fishy going on. But I will let all those conspiracy theorists impress you with their suspicions, while I am focusing merely on a logical line of thinking which basically gravitates around certain numbers.
In order for me to get to my point, which is solely logically oriented, let me introduce to you something that I am calling sub-logic, which is the crazy sister of logic. It's the one mainly applied by people who are being duped by authorities of political, religious, medico-pharmaceutical, or business establishments.
I will use a laughable example of sub-logical reasoning at work, one where sub-logic is most easily recognizable.
A presenter at Alcoholics Anonymous is about to demonstrate the harmful effect of alcohol on living organisms--so he picks a wiggling worm from a jar and drops it in a glass container filled with alcohol, upon which the worm stops wiggling -- now dead.
The presenter asks the audience: "What's logically obvious from what you've just seen here?".
A man, with a bottle sticking out of his coat pocket, says:
"To me..hick!..it's obvious -- if we drink alcohol..hick!..we won't have intestinal worms".
That's what I am calling sub-logical thinking, these non-sequiturs, half cooked logic, mix of some right and some false information -- in short, that well established tool of brainwashing done upon the masses already for some eons.
Now, let's see how sub-logic works against us with this corona racket. Please note how we base our reasoning upon a supposition that everything presented to us must be true if it comes from an authority, and if other common folks like ourselves are accepting its validity -- by the principle of "monkey-see-monkey-do".
So we think:
-- If the World Health Organization proclaimed it to be a deadly pandemic, who are we not to believe it?
-- And since all the governments of the world are enforcing these strict preventative measures, it must be deadly.
-- And since the media keeps their daily reporting about the new, and new, numbers of the dead victims of the virus, it must be deadly all right.
-- And since we see others wearing masks and obeying the enforced social distancing, it must be a damn serious situation.
Now, why am I contending that something so obvious is sub-logical? -- you are asking.
Look, just like that drunk at the Alcoholics Anonymous presentation chose to see only his preferred aspect of logicalness between alcohol and worms -- so are we, by allowing fear to hijack our reasoning, seeing only logical connection between a bombastic corona hype and a danger it "must" mean.
Now, let's see another pearl of sub-logical reasoning, as they are telling us how corona is so deadly because it's a new strain of virus which our immune system is not recognizing, and so unable to fight it.
Are they serious?
Since viruses keep mutating, at almost every regular flu season we get hit by such a "new strain for which our immune system is not ready" -- but, except for those unfortunate ones with a compromised immune system, all the rest of us, "by a miracle", survived. Meaning, each and every new strain of virus had to be that "first encounter" for our immune system to face it. Right?
Furthermore, they never made such a big deal out of it, actually we hardly ever heard a yearly report about how many people had died from a flu -- let alone that it was never called a "pandemic" requiring a socio-economic standstill as we are witnessing it these days.
But now, some of you, impressed by the number of victims of corona, might say that in all those previous flu seasons not as many people died as they have been dying these days.
Again, folks, we have been duped by this massive and highly suggestive advertising so much that hardly anyone is -- just out of a curiosity -- checking out the mortality statistics from those "regular flu seasons".
Go ahead, google it, and you may end up laughing like I did upon discovering that up to 650,000 people die worldwide in any flu season -- as compared with about same number that have "died from corona". But have they?
There are huge number of people who should be in jail for willfully damaging public health, but instead they are employed on high salaries in fraudulent corporate government regulator departments.
-- Steven Magee
Could We Allow Some Logical Reasoning?
According to global mortality statistics, every year millions of people die worldwide -- for example, in 2017, three years ago, over 52 million people died from diseases and self-destructive life-styles combined.
I think it's fair to say that this year numbers won't be much different -- regardless of this corona craze. Namely, if we assume that 52 million people would die anyway, an enormous number of those are likely to be additionally infected by a virus -- just meaning an overkill, no matter what strain of a virus we are talking about.
But they get included in the official count of corona victims!
In other words -- coming from some medical scientists (who are being banned from mainstream media) -- those folks are dying with corona, not of corona.
Furthermore, there are, each year, in the United States alone some 370,000 so called "iatrogenic" deaths (caused by medical/pharmaceutical mistakes). I will leave it to your imagination how many of those have been conveniently diagnosed as "corona" deaths -- to legally cover the asses of those responsible.
Shouldn't we add to these iatrogenic deaths all those that have been caused by experimenting on patients in search for a right treatment for corona -- like those respirators which killed a mass of people, even those who didn't complain about having breathing problems.
Or those massive doses of immune-suppressants, antibiotics, HIV meds, and who knows what else -- using the old military strategy of "few having to be sacrificed for the good of many". Why not just call it a "collateral damage in war with a pandemic".
And, while still talking about corona mortality numbers, why not consider the sensation-oriented selling strategy of media, who are bound to "go creative" about those numbers to keep you watch their program and boost their ratings.
So, with their reputation of not always reporting truth, what is the true number of those who died from corona?
Now, every doctor will tell you that getting infected doesn't mean getting sick, so what's the point of impressing us with the huge number of people at home and worldwide who "tested positive for corona"?
Did you know that our body is "normally" hosting more microbes -- whether viruses, bacteria, fungi, or parasites of all ugly varieties, than there are cells in our body? It must be quite a messy situation under the electron microscope, and we might say that many of those tiny things could be identified as a "corona" virus.
While they are observing all that genetic material under that microscope, trying to identify what-is-what there, let's see how easy it is to make a diagnostic mistake.
Did you know that, while a chimpanzee's genetic sequence is 96% identical to the one of us humans -- and look at the difference between our two species -- that genetic material which they are identifying as a virus is 80% of the one of a virus. Meaning that "we are more of chimpanzees than that stuff is a virus". And yet, since it has "some" characteristics of a virus, they identify it as one.
Every serious pathologist, whose mind has not been corrupted, is telling us how those tests for corona are not reliable, and with their present methods they don't even know what they are testing for.
Hey, even those folks who took their yearly flu shots are testing positive for corona, because that vaccine is affecting the test.
So, you see how huge mistakes could be made -- and are apparently made -- by seeing a virus "just by a resemblance " in genetic sequences. Another case of sub-logical reasoning, isn't it?
And yes, there is a virus, but how is it different -- mortality-wise -- from any other so far which never raised so much dust?
As for the symptoms, they say that corona could cause anything from mild symptoms to those life threatening ones.
So, in one scenario, we may have a common cold and they will diagnose it as corona. In another scenario, we might have a preexisting health issue which got seriously amplified by any infection, with our already overworked immune system having a hard time fighting on all fronts.
In that last scenario, we might be either an aging person, with a couple of heavy diagnoses already making our immunity weak, or a young person on drugs, alcohol, bad lifestyle with poor nutrition, or with emotional instabilities -- any of which has weakened our immune system enough for an infection to seriously affect us.
Add to it the effects of the fear mongering on immune system done by media -- which I will address in more details shortly -- and there is a small wonder why those vulnerable ones are getting sick, or even dying.
Doesn't it all sound so logical, without one having to be a medical scientist?
As a matter of fact, a virologist said that any strange looking molecule seen under electron microscope could be "diagnosed" as corona virus, including an innocent exosome (please refer to the video below for their identical appearances).
One thing worth emphasizing here is that a mass of those tiny critters finding permanent home in our bodies are potentially hostile, if not deadly. So, why aren't we all in hospitals now?
Because we have a well functioning immune system.
So, it's not the question of whether or not you have been infected by corona virus -- or whatever it really is -- but how your immune system is functioning.
And fear is well known to reduce our immunity to anything, from a hay fever to cancer, to heart disease, to diabetes -- then certainly also including a viral disease.
Indeed, how many of us have been thinking ourselves into sickness bombarded daily by this propaganda? How many would have stayed alive if not horrified in a dark anticipation of their end? Think about it.
Fears are educated into us, and if we wish, can be educated out.
-- Karl Augustus Menninger
If "Stress Kills", What a Prolonged Fear Does to Us?
Indeed, what makes corona so "deadly" that the whole damn socio-economic dynamics had to be brought down to almost a paralysis? I promised at the beginning not to offer anything of conspiracy theory variety -- so I won't.
There is this holistic psychiatrist, a certain Dr. Kelly Brogan, MD, who is bravely contending that we are having a "fear pandemic", not a viral pandemic. Moreover, she is stating that more people are dying from fear than from the virus itself.
On its face value, many are bound to interpret that as an exaggeration, at least. But, fear, being the chief emotion in our survival mechanism, is extremely suggestive -- and there is no better evidence of it than these recent news how some people in the US are getting poisoned from drinking detergents -- all in frantic attempts to protect themselves from "corona".
How many of those panic-stricken can't sleep, lost appetite, got grumpy turning marriage into a battlefield -- with extreme cases of some resorting to that ultimate escape -- suicide -- which has been on a rise ever since corona became the main social theme.
A prolonged fear can, and does, terribly affect the biological homeostasis in people.
It goes well with the science of psycho-immunology studying the so called pituitary-hypothalamic-adrenal axis, or, the site of our stress response. Experts dealing with it are not some "new age gurus", but prominent scientists who are telling us quite some impressive stories about what fear is doing to our overall health.
So, what is the media, and the whole damn pack of official lunatics doing to us by bombarding us daily with every tiniest thing they could dig out from their morbid imagination?
Did you really become "more informed", or "more ready to fight corona", or god-forbid "feel better" -- by hearing "how many more death cases are registered in this town, or that country, or worldwide"?
Like, here I read on my TV screen: "Find out more about corona virus". Are they nuts? What could I possibly "learn", or "do" more, after keeping distance from others, washing hands, and spending most of the time at home? Besides, since I am not planning to become a pathologist, what am I supposed to do with that "new information"?
Think about it -- why do you have to know it, if fear is so detrimental to our well being?
The ultimate authority must always rest with the individual's own reason and critical analysis.
-- Dalai Lama
If an Authority Says It -- "Don't Dare to Oppose It": Wisdom of Modern Times
To me it seems absolutely unbelievable that any medical specialist of some standing would risk committing his or her professional suicide by making claims which they wouldn't be able to support with some kind of educated evidence.
And yet, a growing number of doctors are debunking any evidence of a corona virus -- while allowing the fact of some strain of virus, not deadlier than any other of the yearly variety.
So I am including at the bottom of this article a video with such an expert in virology, who compares -- what is "officially" identified as corona -- with so called "exosome".
Exosome is, according to my understanding, an innocent "tiny-something" involved in the cleanup job of our immune system. Using split images of electronic microscope, he lets you, the lay person, notice how similar is a "corona" virus to this exosome.
Apparently, whenever there is an infection somewhere in the body, even a stronger psychological stress, the number of those exosomes increases to do a job -- which, according to this expert -- makes medical authorities think that their multiple presence means "infection with plenty of viruses".
In his 38 minute presentation, you will be challenged to make some sense out of all that scientific lingo, but you should get that much out of it -- there is a serious possibility that corona doesn't exist as it is described -- or at least not as deadly as it's been presented to us.
If you stay with him for the full duration of the video, just like I did, you are bound to be left with one tantalizing question -- why all doctors, the whole medical community, including the World Health Organization, don't agree with him.
Hey, these whistle blowing doctors are not some conspiracy theorists but bona fide scientists. So, if they have an evidence that is based on science -- why all of them are not convinced?
The answer may actually amuse you, and so many doctors are comparing it to the morale drawn from the classic fairy tale "The Emperor's New Clothes" by Hans Christian Andersen. In it, the idiot emperor is convinced by his tailors that they are dressing him into something new, while it's his nudity. So he goes out to the streets to show off his new clothes, and -- here is the important punchline -- the crowds are cheering, nobody daring to tell him that the damn fool is naked.
Likewise, "authority is authority".
Doctors worry about losing their licences if the dare to "go against the grain". Thousands of cases are misdiagnosed. One hospital doctor admitted how it is in general practice, when the cause of death is unknown, they just call it "cardio-pulmonary arrest from covid-19".
Contradictory evaluations of the nature of the virus are running wild, no one "knows" much, but -- for some mysterious reason, the authorities need this general standstill, this paranoia.
I must say, it all gives a certain taste of a dictatorship, when all of a sudden everybody who dies these days -- "dies from corona", and no one of some good credentials is allowed to question the validity of testing method, source of mortality numbers, or the very nature of corona. It's all "given", along with masks and social distancing -- even though corona is not airborne. Or wasn't, until recently when they changed their minds to make it more deadly.
Well, at the end, I can't say enough in the name of a disclaimer.
Go ahead, keep following the preventative regulations, but at least, keep as a reserve position, that your fear is more threatening to your well being than any virus, present or future.
Again, be nice to your immune system, its functioning is more important than protecting yourself from an infection with any mask, any distancing, any hand washing.
In this article I was not trying to debunk the existence of a pandemic -- not on my own anyway, simply because I am not a doctor. But I was trying to emphasize that sub-logical reasoning backed up by fear will do you more damage down the road than anything invading your body.
It's what you allow your mind to be invaded by, which will always make the ultimate difference between health and illness -- and yes, possibly life or death.
An Updating Note:
On this third day after publishing this article, I watched a LIVE event from the Italian Parliament, where a Member is screamingly accusing the government of lying to the Italian people and to the world about those "25,000 people dead from corona".
He claimed to have all documented proofs that most of those people had died from the preexisting causes -- like heart failure, cancer, and other complications.
Who's the next person of some authority with a whistle loud enough?
This content is accurate and true to the best of the author’s knowledge and does not substitute for diagnosis, prognosis, treatment, prescription, and/or dietary advice from a licensed health professional. Drugs, supplements, and natural remedies may have dangerous side effects. If pregnant or nursing, consult with a qualified provider on an individual basis. Seek immediate help if you are experiencing a medical emergency.
© 2020 Val Karas
Val Karas (author) from Canada on June 25, 2020:
Robert -- Thank you for reading the article and for words of praise.
A little friendly note though:
It doesn't bother me one bit -- otherwise I would delete it -- but as far as I know, the HP editors are not too happy when we advertise our hub on someone else's comment space. They call it "spam".
Robert Kernodle on June 25, 2020:
This is a well put together article.
The only critique I would have relates to my own reading of evidence that seems to establish that the virus IS airborne, but, still that is beside the point. In fact, this strengthens the point.
I just published a hub that only supports what Vladimir is saying:
Vlad calls it a "fear crisis", and, before I was even aware of his hub on the topic, I called it a "hysteria crisis". Pretty close, isn't it? -- two people separated in space and in time arrive at almost the same phrase to describe the current utterly ridiculous situation.
My state just declared a mandatory face-mask rule -- another state governor joins the masses of the severely deluded.
Carrie Lee Night from Northeast United States on May 07, 2020:
Thank you for sharing :) I understand this hub as bringing a different perspective to the hot topic, COVID - 19. I am in the medical field and have explored many different avenues. On one hand I think its justified to have quarentine as we are still learning about this virus mutation and maybe a possibility of reinfection of contracting the virus as it may lie dormant. Also we are not sure of the long term effects. Ones they may recover quickly could have lung damage down the road. On the other hand, quarentine, masks, santizer overuse etc. could dull down our natural immunity. Its a fine line to walk. I do agree that the number of deaths could be falsified to a certain extent but I am unsure. Media is also not helping causing fear which in the end only makes things worse. I do only know a few things for sure. There will always be viruses, proper hand washing is essential and having faith in our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ will do wonders :)
Val Karas (author) from Canada on May 03, 2020:
Chris57 -- Isn't it kind of sad that the time has come that we are all talking about people's dying just in terms of "numbers", and "statistics", not really honoring them as human beings whose families suffered a big loss.
As I am reading again my articles on this theme, I can't help but feel for them. I feel somewhat the same way as I am watching archaeological excavations, seeing how those human bones are handled like "items".
Well, I guess I am becoming a little sensitive at this age, so don't mind me if I don't respond to your comment the way it deserves.
But you are certainly pointing out at some very interesting facts there.
Val Karas (author) from Canada on May 03, 2020:
Yunus -- These days, more than usual, I get tempted to agree with every conspiracy theory in existence -- but they just don't fit into my mind-style. Whatever you say might be perfectly true, but I don't see what I could actually do about it to make it disappear -- so I am just continuing to cultivate my peace of mind.
But, you undoubtedly got quite some theory there, and if I was into it, we would have a long and interesting discussion on some of your points.
Be well, my friend.
CHRIS57 from Northern Germany on May 02, 2020:
Just want to share a little info on the Conona pandemic. Germany is a farther down the road than the US or UK. Active cases decreasing every day and economy opening up.
2 apparently contradictory sets of information from Germany:
1. Corona death rate is some 6% of natural death rate. Compared to other years, day to day rate according to the registry sees 6% more people die, making Corona death cause #1 for the time being.
2. Average age of Corona deaths is 81 years. This is exactly the average life expactancy in Germany.
Both sets of information can be aligned if we assume that in a very high percentage old people die with precondition. Those poor people would die anyways within a fairly short period of time. So an outcome for the future may be that some die a little prematurely, lifting the current total death rate above natural rate. Then, when most of those have walked the plank, the plank is empty so future death rate will undercut the natural death rate.
This raises very heavy and difficult ethical questions for decision makers in politics, especially when it comes to opening economy and trading economic fallout against balanced death rates.
Kindly-Resist on April 30, 2020:
I have been wondering if "they" have been exposing people to something under the guise of testing or looking for a certain blood type or gene. Everyone is supposed to stay home so they don't see something.
Yunus from Johannesburg on April 27, 2020:
My main concern is this: The concept of creating a problem and allowing to plead for a solution.
Now that we focused on some invisible threat. Comes all the excuses to take away our human rights, the rights to privacy.
An example of such is using tracking systems to track your device.
All of this falls to well into a marketing strategy.
If this virus sprung out 2019 (Covid 19), how is it that the book from D.R.Koontz predicted it, some movies on Netflix and so on.
How could they have known about the threat since 2015 (According the Chinese movie on Netflix).
It's as if they prepare us for such disasters and all follow blindly.
Could it be a mind control strategy, the beginning of a new world order or something worse.
Or is it a conspiracy some world leaders know about, but have sworn secrecy to the beast.
Besides with a secret of such magnitude you pay in blood.
Perhaps if we're all in a state of fear, we're more likely to accept any new idea with questioning authority.
This is the beginning of a new world. The uncertainty is widespread and that opens doors to whatever goverments decide.
Could we be living a well-calculated plan in action?
Val Karas (author) from Canada on April 27, 2020:
Response to comment: "It's how fast people are getting sick and dying -- In less than 3 months".
Could you be a little more specific?
Which people? Or ALL of them somehow decided to die in less than 3 months? Are they old? Are they young? Are they alcoholics, druggies, mentally sick? What preexisting disease, if any, they had?
You see, it's an awful generalization to say that "people die in less than 3 months". I am sure, there must be those who die, let's say, in four months, two days, and five hours.
It’s how fast people are getting sick and dying on April 27, 2020:
In less than three months
Val Karas (author) from Canada on April 27, 2020:
Sustainable Sue -- Being a Canadian, and calling myself a political cynic, I am just a casual observer of the political circus in the United States.
Even if I had a better insight into any covert games being played, it would be hard to tell who, and what, and why it's all necessary, because everybody is suffering its consequences, rich and poor, and all presidential candidates, including Trump. Personally I was never impressed one bit by him, but again, he is not my president.
I think, and this is only guessing -- who ever might be behind it, they miscalculated, because masses are more alert these days about attempts of manipulation, and they already started protesting.
Conspiracy theories, true or not, are going wild all around the globe, and the day may come soon when democracy itself will come to its big test -- when staying home starts looking like something more than a preventative measure against the virus
Well, I am not smart enough to tell what's going on, so I'll leave it to the time to tell. It always does.
Thank you for reading the article.
Sustainable Sue from Altadena CA, USA on April 27, 2020:
The question is, while we're all hiding inside and paying close attention to the coronavirus news, what else is going on that we're not paying attention to? Trump has been a master at distracting the public from things he doesn't want us to see—like the gradual dismantling of our federal government. But lately it's seemed to me like he's being "played" himself. So who is behind this media scare and why are they doing it?
Val Karas (author) from Canada on April 26, 2020:
Rakesh -- Sorry I missed you, my friend, I am glad you liked the article, I truly enjoyed writing it.
Val Karas (author) from Canada on April 26, 2020:
Galleryofgrace -- Thank you for your kind words, I'm glad you liked the article. Well, maybe you are right, and "what goes around - comes around" is getting another proof of its correctness.
galleryofgrace from Virginia on April 26, 2020:
Thank you for your enlightening article.
My personal opinion is that "they" are using this simply as a way to force the "sheeple" to have to wear face coverings because of so many who complained about "foreigners" being allowed to cover their faces.
See how fast the sheeple are all playing the game while "they" just make fun of American people.
Val Karas (author) from Canada on April 26, 2020:
CHRIS 57-- Thank you so much for this elaborate exploration of the economic aspect of this present crisis. I must admit I am not familiar with so much of it -- except for an intuitive sense that "more than a virus story" is going on.
By this same intuition, and somewhat by the numbers that I mentioned in my article, I would guess -- and it is only a guess -- that we are experiencing merely a regular flu season which has its regular toll of deaths.
With my general mentality and attitude, I ultimately don't put too much weight on any of it -- since it's beyond my power to change it. It's all about the emotional intensity how we choose to react -- and while, of course, it saddens me that with all the global brain power we had to have something like this -- it doesn't go that far that I would be losing any sleep over it.
As a matter of fact, I am not being careful one bit about not-attracting the virus, and I am 75. No mask, no gloves, I do wash my hands like I always did, I am obeying the distancing rule, for a case if I am a carrier without symptoms, and since I am retired, I spend much time at home anyway.
Not being a normative type, I am not suggesting to anybody to follow my example -- let people do what they want, I am not living others' lives. With this attitude I haven't seen a doctor in over 13 years, and at this age when people are using at least a couple of over-the- counter medications, I am using none, never had a headache in my life.
I am just trying to expose my priorities. Yes, the situation appears pretty somber, people are dying, panicking, worrying, and if it was not for the media to report it with such a passion (their rating must have gone sky-high), we might even say "it's a life as usual", people die, get born, governments are brainlessly monkeying around -- what else is new.
For one thing, I don't believe that this will lead to any military confrontations between the biggies -- not at this age of nuclear power. If it wasn't for those nukes being pointed at each others' capital, we would have had a world war long ago.
So, all in all, the main point of my article was to raise the people's awareness about the potentially devastating effects of fear on their immune system. No matter what's going on -- it's our reaction to it that ultimately makes for us the whole difference.
Thank you again, so much, for your interesting and excellent input. Here, at least with the size of my response, I tried to match it, LOL.
Val Karas (author) from Canada on April 26, 2020:
Sharon -- America has been insisting pretty strongly to be called "the leader of the FREE world, right? So, let's start with the FREEDOM of oral and written expression.
In a country where their president can be called an "idiot-and-worse", why deny the right of some doctors to say what they believe in?
Besides, these doctors must have saved at least one life during their practice -- how many lives have you and I saved lately?
Moreover, this article has been read 80,000-plus times, and since I have not deleted any comments, take a look how many of those 80,000 had something negative to say.
But of course, I am not denying you the right to say what you want, and while not denying myself that right either, I would say that your comment looks quite lonely here -- beside Mary's, so far.
It seems like most of the people read the whole article, not just the title.
Sharon on April 25, 2020:
These Drs should be working in NYC to help this so called normal death like scenario Shut up or put up!
Val Karas (author) from Canada on April 25, 2020:
Mary -- I was reporting what some doctors were saying. In my disclaimer I clearly said that "I am not debunking the pandemic, because I am not a doctor to do so."
I started by expressing my confusion over the logic with the numbers, and I am not backing off from that confusion
I never asked anybody to interpret my article as an attempted proof about a nonexistent corona. I did express my personal doubts, but I might as well tell you that I believe in UFO's, without asking you to believe in them too.
I am sorry you lost your friends, and I am not "asking anybody to get back to normal". If you had read my article properly, you would have seen how my main concern was the pandemic of fear which is weakening people's immune system.
So, before you choose to accuse someone of anything, please make sure you understood the main message of the article you read.
Mary Grizzle on April 25, 2020:
So if we believe you and drop everything and go back to normal we won’t get sick or worse your full of bull I’ve lost 4 friends because of this virus and you say it’s not true so show me by taking your loved ones and friends back to normal living and write us how that turned out for you
CHRIS57 from Northern Germany on April 25, 2020:
My wife had an appointment with her doctor last week. I had accompanied her and we had a little chat with the doctor and later with the pharmacist while getting her medication. Both the doctor and the pharmacist were totally relaxed concerning Corona - the exact opposite of our daily input from German Robert Koch Institute and from the news. Does not match.
Now, i am an old industrial consultant and engineer. I can crunch my own numbers, do my own statistics, if i get hold of some data. Go to Johns Hopkins and you have, whatever is reported. Daily reported Corona death rate is between 7% (Germany) to 20% (USA), 20% (Sweden) and 35% (UK) in relation to the natural death rate derived from life expectancy.
Data is only as good as it is consistent and complete. There are some doubts:
What these journalists do is nothing else but take natural mortality (your 57 million for the world population) and look at the numbers of registered deaths. Apparently official Corona death count is lower than the spikes in the books. So - is there a second pandemia going on? Probably not, only expresses that the situation is a little more dire for this hot time period than officially noted.
Of course we can diminish the numbers with respect to world natural death rate. But - what we have to consider is that the absolute majority of deaths is with countries that have strict lockdowns. If no lockdown, no physical distancing, numbers would be probably 4 times as high and at the end of the day all elderly care homes would be empty.
How does politics enforce a lockdown? By fear. I think you express this in your article. Why does politics do this, the lockdown? We could go through this question with humanitarian aspects or not to stress health care systems. I beg to have another explanation.
Has to do with the economic fallout.
And it all started with the virus in China. The outbreak in Wuhan was in the middle of a political struggle between local administration and central government. Beijing sent troups and forced the local leaders to shut down Wuhan and Hubei province. I had discussion on this with my chinese friends and found this guy Nikolai Vavilov in internet:
This caused immediate economic fallout. China, being one of the world factories simply could no more supply the world. Not necessarily 5G communication, but tiny little switches that go into BMW or Volkswagen or Ford cars were missing. Supply chains broke.
With all the global interconnections, the economic virus spread much faster than Covid19. Market indicators were down long before anyone in the West noticed Corona. In march German car factories had to stop production. So government didn´t have to think long to enforce lockdown. Nobody said that, but the economic virus had already done its thing. Oil prices were not only on the downturn because of Russia and the Saudis quarrelling, but because there was no demand.
Some countries did not follow the lockdown: Sweden, Belarus. While i am not too familiar with Belarus, i choose Sweden to look at. To find out how Sweden and other countries are doing, i use the economic fallout in relation to the death count.
There is this website: https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html
Interesting thing is, that the site seems to model economic situation of countries, both by national debt and GDP. I just assume, that if you add daily change of debt (increase) and GDP (decrease), you get some number of the economic impact in this situation. Then take the daily death rate and you have a number of how much a body bag costs in this week:
Sweden: 125 deaths/day, fallout 100 Mill USD/day = 800.000 USD/death
USA: 2500 death/day, fallout 7 Bill. USD/day = 2.800.000 USD/death
UK: 650 death/day, fallout 918 Mill USD/day = 1.413.000 USD/death
Germany: 240 death/day, fallout 580 Mill USD/day = 2.400.000 USD/death
Obviously doing nothing (Sweden) is much cheaper than lockdown. However comparison between Germany (7% overshoot to natural mortality) and Sweden (20%) indicates, that Germany pays 3 times as much to have 1/3 overshoot. And if you have bad health care systems (US and UK) and bad administrative response, high lockdown cost doesn´t even pay back on reduced death count.
What makes me fear is not the Covid19 virus. That will die away with every mutation (we already have more than 3 or 4000 mutations). What makes me fear is the global economic virus. How fast that spreads. And how gigantic the impact is.
For the German economy i could say: If we can´t work, because parts, people, supply chain, transport, logistics are compromised, we might as well stay at home.
Of course, Covid19 is a perfect excuse to reset all the wrongs and false developments in world economy.
Please forgive my not very humanistic approach to understand this mess.
Great article, one of the few articles that dig deeper. Thank you.
Val Karas (author) from Canada on April 25, 2020:
Dreamer Meg -- Our only realistic hope in all this is that the World Health Organization will SOON signal to the governments that the danger is over -- after they receive a signal from who-knows-whom to do so.
Rakesh Sharma from CHANDIGARH on April 25, 2020:
Excellent interpretation that it is fear pandemic and not virus pandemic. Causes of death are chronic diseases in late 50's
DreamerMeg from Northern Ireland on April 24, 2020:
Yes, not only are we subverting our own reasoning powers, we are allowing ourselves to be frightened and there is so much censorship going on, it must be in danger of subverting the First Amendment! Dr Kaufman is very logical and incisive in his dissection of the academic papers.