Updated date:

Covid - 39.6 M Cases Total - 1.1 M DEAD; 8.3 M in U.S. w/224,000 Dead; 26 States Over 100,000 Cases; 4 Over 500,000

ME has spent most of his retirement from service to the United States studying, thinking, and writing about the country he served.

The Coronavirus

Under the electron microscope, those red protuberances look like the Sun's corona

Under the electron microscope, those red protuberances look like the Sun's corona

Coronavirus - What Is It?

The first "myth" about this disease is its name. In reality a "coronavirus" is a broad group of viruses (that happen to look like the "corona" of the Sun) that have similar characteristics. One of the mildest forms of coronavirus is the common cold (the rhinovirus). More serious (and deadly at a 0.1% mortality rate) is the various strains of the common flu. More recent variations are SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome; 9.7% mortality rate) and MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome; 36% mortality rate). The latest version is what is infecting the world today and is known as the "novel coronavirus" and officially, COVID-19. The mortality rate is unknown at the moment because of lack of testing in the United States and many other nations. The "official" rate is currently 3.4%, but, based on experience in South Korea, may be as low as 0.7%.

Symptoms vary but can include fever, cough, and shortness of breath. Muscle pain, sputum production, and sore throat are less common. It can, especially in older or people with pre-existing conditions can lead to pneumonia, organ failure, and death. What is problematic about these symptoms is that they are similar to the cold and flu.

As of Mar 15, 2020, there are an estimated 162,501 cases worldwide with 6,068 deaths. That is a 3.7% mortality rate. In the United States, there are 3,083 cases and 60 deaths (1.9% mortality rate). The World Health Organization has declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic.

COVID-19 Coronavirus Is More Contagious Than the Flu

This variant of coronavirus has proven to be more infectious than the common flu. While all coronaviruses transmit the contagion the same way, through respiratory droplets, generally from sneezing and coughing, COVID-19 is more virulent. Most coronaviruses are contagious only when symptoms are present - not so COVID-19. People have been known to pass on the disease well before they are symptomatic, or even when they are never symptomatic.

Further, people can pick up the virus from surfaces as well. But again, unlike the flu where the virus only lives outside the body for a short while, COVID-19 is different. The latest estimate is that the virus can live on a surface up to nine days after being deposited there. Couple this with the incubation period of up to 14 days before symptoms appear, it is easy to see why COVID-19 will likely end up much worse than the flu.

One thing that isn't known yet about COVID-19 is whether it dies down during warm and humid weather like the flu does. Preliminary evidence, unfortunately, from places in the Southern Hemisphere, where it is Summer now, suggests that it will not abate much. Consider this, last year's flu season resulted in 35.5 million cases of the flu in the U.S. Based on current growth rates, we might hit that number around May 6th, if serious mitigation efforts aren't instituted quickly.

Where Did COVID-19 Come From?

Many theories abound, including several propagated by Fox News. The initial thought was that it was transferred from snakes to humans at the "wet" market1 in Wuhan, China. Soon, a variation quickly emerged - that the snakes were infected by bats since the genome of the this new virus was extremely similar to those found in bats.

It wasn't long before the conspiracy theories came out. One was the American military released the virus in Wuhan. Another was that the Chinese did it. Fox News pushed these. A third that has at least one credible scientist behind it is a variation on the Chinese origins - that there was an accident at a lab near Wuhan that released the virus.

The fact is - nobody really knows. There are several groups of virus hunters trying to pin down the exact source. All but the one who thinks it might be an accident discount the various conspiracy theories. What they all DO agree on is the ultimate origin is from bats, they just don't know which one since they haven't captured one that has a matching genome.

Many are starting to discount the Wuhan wet market idea as well because of documented evidence that the first few cases, as early as Nov 17, 2019, occurred in people that had no connection with the market. A couple of reasonable theories involve farmers and bats. One has it that since the virus lives in bat's intestines, it is passed out in its feces; many know this as guano, a popular fertilizer. Farmers go into bat caves and harvest the guano and become infected. They then went to the Wuhan market and infected others. Another is that humans were infected directly from bats since they are often eaten in China.

In any case, the search goes on and sooner or later researches will discover the real cause of this deadly disease.

1 A Chinese "wet market" is a particularly gruesome place where people bring in live, wild animals to sell as pets or as food. They are stacked one on top of another with guts, visceral, and feces spread all over the ground for people to slip on and children to play in.

The Spread of the Coronavirus

There is a complex equation that describes how things like viruses spread in the real world. Without boring you with the sordid details, as the virus is in the growth phase its slope is increasing at an increasing rate - in other words an "exponential" growth. As time goes on and people start dying and mitigation efforts start taking effect, the rate of growth slows down and eventually reverses. This cycle is replicated every flu season.

COVID-19 is no exception and is currently in its growth phase.

So how does this growth really work? It is fairly simple once you understand the fundamental forcing mechanism behind all of these types of systems - the R0 or R-naught. R0 represents "transmissibility" or how many people a single person can infect, on average. For example, an R0 of 1 means that on average, while a person is contagious, they will infect one other person. On the other hand, an R0 of 2 means that on average, while a person is contagious, they will infect two other people; while an R0 of 3 means that on average, while a person is contagious, they will infect three other people.

This may not sound like much until you consider that a R0 greater than 1 means the growth is exponential. The larger the value, the more explosive the growth. Let's say R0 is 2. Then the first person will infect two people. Those two people will infect four people. Those four people will infect eight people - then 16, then 32, then 64, then 128 , then 256 and so on. Let's assume each new round of infections occurs once a day. Then after:

  • 10 days there will be 1,024.
  • After 15 days, 32,768.
  • After 20 days, 1,048,576.

Are you getting the picture? Now let's compare this to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the United States on day 1 (Feb 15) there were 15 cases:

  • On day 5, still 15 cases (keep in mind, extremely little testing was happening)
  • On day 10, 57 cases
  • On day 15, 75 cases
  • On day 20, 319 cases
  • On day 25, 1,301 cases
  • On day 30, 4,744 cases (and now testing starts picking up)
  • On day 32 (today), 9,464

At the rate established by this data, we can project that at a minimum (I have updated the numbers to reflect more data):

  • On day 35: 12,670 (Actual was 24,207)
  • On day 40: 39,855 cases (Actual was 68,594)
  • On day 45: 125,386 cases
  • On day 50: 394,356 cases
  • On day 55: 1,240,484 cases
  • On day 60: 3,902,040 cases (this is a critical point because after this, social distancing becomes less and less effective)
  • On day 65: 12,274,201 cases
  • On day 70: 38,609,547 cases (more than the number of flu cases in 2018)
  • On day 75: 121,449,627 cases

This, or worse, is what will happen unless there is some serious intervention to "flatten the curve", i.e., reduce R0.

Coronavirus Cases and Deaths

CHART 1 - The dotted lines is the projection based on current data Also - Cases were increasing at an increasing rate (accelerating) but are currently flattening out at a very high rate.

CHART 1 - The dotted lines is the projection based on current data Also - Cases were increasing at an increasing rate (accelerating) but are currently flattening out at a very high rate.

CHART 2 - Since the Curve is flattening, a new trendline formula is needed.  The polynomial fits the data the best.

CHART 2 - Since the Curve is flattening, a new trendline formula is needed. The polynomial fits the data the best.

CHART 3 - The dotted lines is the projection based on current data Also - Deaths are increasing at an increasing rate (accelerating)

CHART 3 - The dotted lines is the projection based on current data Also - Deaths are increasing at an increasing rate (accelerating)

CHART 4 - Since the Curve is flattening, a new trendline formula is needed.  The polynomial fits the data the best.

CHART 4 - Since the Curve is flattening, a new trendline formula is needed. The polynomial fits the data the best.

Mitigating the Coronavirus

So, how do you "flatten the curve"? By doing things that drive R0 to less than one. The popular term today is called "social distancing", meaning keeping people apart so that one has less of a chance of infecting another. More drastic social distancing is taking place in Italy right now and was done in Wuhan China - total lockdown where people are restricted to their homes - period.

What does "social distancing" really mean? Simple, keeping people far enough away from each other for a sufficiently long time that the virus fails to transmit. If nobody can infect anybody else (R0 = 0), then the virus would die out completely in about 14 days, what is thought to be the incubation period. Of course that would be impossible to achieve. Why? Because the economic system of the world would come to a screeching halt. Now, it wouldn't really stop entirely because people could still transact with each other, but it would be extremely constricted.

So short of total quarantine, what can be done? Well, today, March 19, 2020, the State Department issued a worldwide travel ban for Americans; many other nations have done similar things. Most states have shut down their school systems. States and cities have closed restaurants except for take-out. In my neck of the woods, two the three major theater chains has closed. My company was supposed to have attended three different business conferences - all cancelled. All in an attempt to drive R0 from between 2 and 3, where it currently is, closer to 1.

The Right-wing constantly complains that the mainstream media is hyperventilating and causing panic. If that were true, then why are so many people, especially young people, not listening? They still crowded beaches in Florida over spring break - infecting each other and then going back to infect their parents and grandparents. We have a few conservative congressmen telling their constituents to "go to the pub" (Rep. Devin Nunes-CA) or "I call it the beer virus" and "go forth with daily activities" (Rep Don Young-AK) or "We don't shut down our economies because tens of thousands of people die from the common flu." pushing back against all of the social distancing requirements coming out of the CDC (Sen Ron Johnson-WI). In today's world, those are very dangerous, even deadly words.

Picturing the Impact of Coronavirus Social Distancing

April 12, 2020 - Time has passed since I began this article and all but 5 states have implemented strong social distancing policies. Has it worked? If you compare Charts 1 and 2 above which depict two different forecasting techniques on total cases of Covid-19 in America.

Chart 1 shows the progression of coronavirus cases and the projection of future cases based on an "exponential"1 curve. This is what the data said would happen if nothing was done. This is where the very high estimates of cases and deaths came from. Based on this model, America would have seen roughly the same number of Covid-19 cases as there were flu cases in 2018, 35.5 million by April 25.

Notice in Chart 1 that the "actual" cases are beginning not to keep up with the exponential trend line. That tells us the exponential curve is no longer a good model. To find a good model, we do what is called "curve fitting". This is what Chart 2 shows you.

By using what is called a "polynomial" curve, ones that wiggle with the data. A second power polynomial, x2, gives you a "U" shaped curve. A third power polynomial, x3, produces a "S" shaped curve, one that reflects reality more when mitigation is invoked. This is the curve depicted in Chart 2. (I will be adding Chart 4 for deaths shortly because they are starting to show signs of flattening.) Based on this curve, America will reach 35.5 million cases around Aug 3.

What is interesting with using two difference methods, you can see a "before" and "after" picture. For example, using the exponential curve in Chart 1, that says cases are increasing at a 24.7% rate. But again, you can easily tell by looking at the chart that that is not the case. Using a better fitting curve, the actual growth rate is closer to 9.2% on April 10. Comparing those two numbers give you a great idea of how much social distancing has worked.


1 An example of exponential growth is if you earned 1 cent today, 2 cents tomorrow, 4 cents on the third day, 8 cents on fourth day and so on. If nothing gets in the way of your earnings, then you would be earning $10,737,418.24 on day 30. Wouldn't that be nice.

Results and Statistical Analysis

5/7/2020:

I thought I would offer some insights I am gaining from graphing the progress of this pandemic. At a gross scale the following seems to be happening at the moment.

  • The worldwide rate of growth of cases as seemed to have bottomed out. It has remained at 2.5% new cases per day, about 80,000 to 95,000 new cases a day.
  • Worldwide, the rate of growth of new cases started out at 15.4% per day and rapidly fell to a low of 1.2% nineteen days later.
  • It then reversed course as it left China and started spreading throughout Europe and especially the United States. In another 29 days, the rate rose to 12.1% per day. This would be around March 29th.
  • It reversed course one more time and started a slower decline to its current 2.5%. Only time will tell if the world's lessenging of protective measures is going to cause a resurgence.
  • In America it has been less volatile. Around Feb 17th, cases were growing at about an average of 3.2%, using a 15-day moving average. It climbed, rather jaggedly to a high of 35.5% in 14 days - around Mar 19th.
  • Then the rate started decreasing, jaggedly again, to the same rate of growth in new cases for the rest of the world, 2.5%.
  • This average is still slightly downward sloping meaning the rate may decrease for a little while longer, but the rate of decline is definitely decelerating.
  • Deaths should lag behind cases, but what I am seeing is potentially disturbing. From Mar 3 to about Mar 19, the rate of new deaths was a staggering 20% per day (from 0 cases to 217). That is a doubling every five days
  • And then it got worse! From Mar 20 the rate exploded over the next 10 days to a high of 32.4% per day or doubling about ever three days. In that time period, deaths went from 217 to 2,220, a ten-fold increase.
  • From there it has dropped dramatically to the current 3.0%, But that is deceiving because in that 40 days, deaths skyrocketed from 2,220 to an unheard of 76,864! Only wars have seen higher numbers in America from a single cause.
  • Worse, I just ran the numbers today and the death rate average ticked up to 3.1%, its second increase in a row from a low of 2.9%.

Statistical Analysis

Testing in America makes statistical analysis almost impossible, The theory is the more widespread testing is, the easier it is to keep the virus under control. Therefore, the coefficient associated would be negative - the more testing the less cases per 1 million people.

But we aren't testing enough, maybe one-tenth of what is needed at this point in time. It is growing however. That means as we test more, the more asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic people we will find. That implies a positive coefficient, which is what I have.

Right now, the equation I get, with a reasonable amount of certainty is the following monster:

Log(Cases per million) = 2.212378 + 0.00285* (tests per million)^0.55 + 0.083297*(people per sq mile)^0.245

Let me translate. That mess says that the number of cases per 1 million people is positively determined by the number of tests per million people and a function of the states population density. Positively simply means that as the independent variable increases, so does the dependent (cases per 1 million).

I just started looking at this so as time goes on, I will make improvements.

When Can Social Distancing End?

When there is enough tests and processing capacity to fulfill Trump's promise that "if you want a test, you can get a test" - and not before. Why? Because until you know if the person you are letting go back to work is immune or virus free, the cycle will start all over again.

Nevertheless, many states, who are still seeing high rates of growth in cases (>3%), are planning to begin reopening their economies beginning late April. Based on that, seven models have increased their estimate of total covid-related deaths.


Coronavirus - For Better or Worse

How do you know if all of this social distancing is having an effect? Well, you look at the table below. Here I plot the date where the number of U.S. cases passes 35,500,000, the number of flu cases in 2018. That is an arbitrary number, it could be any sufficiently large figure. What is important is if each succeeding entry is getting closer (bad) or further away (good).

While testing kits are in short supply, there are many unknown cases floating around out there. As more kits become available and more testing is done, more of these cases will be discovered. That will make the rate of growth seem higher than it really is. That means as each day passes, the threshold date gets sooner and sooner.

At some point, there will be plenty of testing kits available and the "apparent" rate of growth will slow down until it stabilizes. I will include a column that gives an idea of how scarce testing is to help you gauge the rate of growth.

Is Social Distancing Working?

DATEDATE FOR PASSING 35,500,000 CASESTEST AVAILABILITYSOCIAL DISTANCING

Mar 10, 2020

May 28, 2020

Very Limited

None

Mar 15, 2020

May 5, 2020

Very Limited

None

Mar 20, 2020

Apr 28, 2020

Tiny Improvement

None

Mar 22, 2020

Apr 27, 2020

Tiny Improvement

None

Mar 24, 2020

Apr 25, 2020

A Little Improvement

Some

Mar 27, 2020

Apr 24, 2020

Some Improvement

Some

Apr 3, 2020

Apr 24, 2020

Some Improvement

More

Apr 7, 2020

Apr 25, 2020

Some Improvement

More

Apr 15, 2020

Jun 16, 2020 (Based on new data)

Some Imprrovement

Most of US

May 11, 2020

Oct 30, 2020 (Based on new data)

Some Imprrovement

Most of US

May 17, 2020

Nov 19, 2020

More Improvement

Most of US

May 22, 2020

Dec 2, 2020

More Improvement

Most of US

May 29, 2020

Jan 9, 2021

More Improvement

Most of US

Jun 5, 2020

Jan 9, 2021

More Improvement

Decreasing

Jun 12, 2020

Feb 5, 2021

More Improvement

Decreasing

Jun 19, 2020

Feb 9, 2021

More Improvement (Antibody tests widely available)

Little

Jun 26, 2020

Dec 27, 2020

More Improvement (Antibody tests widely available)

Little

July 3, 2020

Nov 23, 2020

More Improvement (Antibody tests widely available)

Little among Republicans, Some among Democrats

July 10, 2020

Nov 13, 2020

More Improvement (Antibody tests widely available)

Little among Republicans, Some among Democrats

July 17, 2020

Nov 8, 2020

More Improvement (Antibody tests widely available)

Cities and States are finally starting to mandate masks.

July 24, 2020

Nov 25, 2020

No Change

Cities and States reimplemented mask mandates and closed bars

July 31, 2020

Dec 12, 2020

No Change

Cities and States reimplemented mask mandates and closed bars

August 7, 2020

Jan 11, 2021

No Change

Cities and States reimplemented mask mandates and closed bars

August 14, 2020

Feb 3, 2021

No Change

Cities and States reimplemented mask mandates and closed bars

COVID-19 Case Growth by State

The BOLDED States have R-naught values greater than 1. This means each infected person transmits the virus to More Than One other person indicating the virus is Expanding

STATECASES (as of 14 August)GROWTH RATETREND

ALABAMA

106309

1.3%

Falling

ALASKA

4,073

1.8%

Falling

ARIZONA

191,721

0.6%

Falling

ARKANSAS

52,392

1.4%

Falling

CALIFORNIA

612,825

215%

Constant

COLORADO

52,538

0.8%

Constant

CONNECTICUT

50,897

0.2%

Constant

DELAWARE

16,340

0.7%

Constant

D.C.

13,118

0.6%

Constant

FLORIDA

563,285

1.3%

Falling

GEORGIA

231,895

1.6%

Falling

HAWAII

4,543

5.8%

Rising

IDAHO

27,173

2.0%

Falling

ILLINOIS

204,043

0.9%

Constant

INDIANA

78,632

1.3%

Constant

IOWA

50,943

1.0%

Constant

KANSAS

34,177

1.6%

Constant

KENTUCKY

38,298

1.8%

Falling

LOUISIANA

136,737

0.9%

Falling

MAINE

4,115

0.3%

Falling

MARYLAND

98,875

0.7%

Constant

MASSACHUSETTS

122,728

0.3%

Constant

MICHIGAN

100,724

0.8%

Constant

MINNESOTA

63,723

1.1%

Constant

MISSISSIPPI

70,930

1.3%

Falling

MISSOURI

66,077

1.9%

Falling

MONTANA

5,541

2.5%

Falling

NEBRASKA

29,988

1.0%

Constant

NEVADA

59,7449

1.4%

Falling

NEW HAMPSHIRE

6,964

0.4%

Constant

NEW JERSEY

192,397

0.2%

Constant

NEW MEXICO

23,190

0.8%

Falling

NEW YORK

454,148

0.2%

Constant

NORTH CAROLINA

142,170

1.0%

Falling

NORTH DAKOTA

8,322

1.8%

Falling

OHIO

106,585

1.1%

Falling

OKLAHOMA

46,897

1.7%

Falling

OREGON

22,613

1.4%

Falling

PENNSYLVANIA

127,774

0.6%

Constant

RHODE ISLAND

20,335

0.5%

Constant

SOUTH CAROLINA

104,841

1.1%

Falling

SOUTH DAKOTA

10,027

1.0%

Constant

TENNESSEE

130,458

1.5%

Falling

TEXAS

548,878

1.5%

Falling

UTAH

45,976

0.9%

Falling

VERMONT

1,501

0.5%

Constant

VIRGINIA

104,838

1.1%

Constant

WASHINGTON

67,623

1.0%

Falling

WEST VIRGINIA

8,274

1.6%

Falling

WISCONSIN

64,227

1.4%

Falling

WYOMING

3,183

1.0%

Falling

PUERTO RICO

25,128

2.8%

Constant

The Coronavirus Timeline

The local government in Wuhan, China, confirmed that they were treating dozens of cases of pneumonia.1

Jan. 13, 2017: The joint Obama-Trump transition teams run an exercise for pandemic preparedness.

Later in 2017: The Trump Administration is briefed on an Obama-era National Security Council Pandemic “playbook.” The brief is reportedly not adopted as an official Trump administration strategy.

May 2017: President Trump proposes cutting over $277 million in pandemic-preparedness funding. Congress, in bipartisan action, rejects the funding cuts.

May 11, 2017: The Intelligence Community’s Worldwide Threat Assessment warns of major pandemic risks.

September 2017: The Trump administration contracts with a company to create a prototype of a reusable N95 mask.

December 2017: In Trump's on-going battle against science, his administration reportedly bans the CDC from using the terms “evidence-based” and “science-based.”

February 9, 2018: President Trump signs bill that cuts $1.35 billion in funding for Prevention and Public Health Fund at the CDC.

Jan 2, 2020: Researchers in China identified a new virus. But, at the time, there was no evidence that the virus was readily spread by humans.

Jan 11, 2020: The first person in China dies.

Jan 17, 2020: The World Health Organization (WHO) publishes a German protocol for producing a coronavirus test and offers it to anyone who needs it. CDC turns down the offer.

Jan 20, 2020: The first confirmed cases outside of China appear in South Korea, Thailand, and Japan.

Jan 21, 2020: The first confirmed case in the United States appears from a man who had returned from Wuhan, China.

Jan 22, 2020: When asked about his thoughts on the coronavirus, he replied “It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”

Jan 23, 2020: China shuts down Wuhan, cutting off travel and transportation in and out of the area. At this point 17 people have died from 570 infections - a 3% mortality rate

Jan 28, 2020: Donald Trump retweets an article from the unreliable One America News Network that suggested Johnson & Johnson was working on a vaccine; they weren't.

Jan 29, 2020: The Trump administration creates a coronavirus task force to be led by Vice President Pence and staffed with experts from around the federal government. At the same time, he said

Jan 30, 2020: The WHO declares a public health emergency of international concern. The U.S. State Department warns travelers to avoid China.

Jan 31, 2020: The Trump administration suspends entry into the U.S. by any foreign nationals who had traveled to China in the past 14 days, excluding the immediate family members of American citizens or permanent residents. So far 213 people have died and 9,800 infected worldwide.

Feb 2, 2020: First coronavirus death outside of China

Feb 5, 2020: The Diamond Princess cruise ship, with more than 3,600 passengers, is quarantined outside of Yokohama, Japan.

Feb 11, 2020: WHO names the virus COVID-19, coronavirus disease 2019, a generic name to avoid stigma. Later Donald Trump calls it the "Chinese virus." By the next day, the death toll in China had reached 1,113 and the total number of confirmed cases rose to 44,653. There were 393 cases outside of China, in 24 countries.

Feb 13, 2020: The Diamond Princess has 218 confirmed cases and China announced there were more than 14,840 cases in Hubei Province.

Feb 14, 2020: France announces its first coronavirus case.

Feb 21, 2020: A secretive South Korean church, the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, was linked to a surge of infections in the country. The number of confirmed cases in the South Korea rose above 200, and more than 400 other church members reported potential symptoms, health officials said. As a result, the government shut down thousands of kindergartens, nursing homes and community centers, and put a stop to political rallies in the capital, Seoul. Also, Iran finally announced both cases and deaths from coronavirus.

Feb 23, 2020: Italy sees a surge in coronavirus cases and locks down the Lombardy region.

Feb 24, 2020: Donald Trump asks for $1.23 billion in new emergency funds to help fund preparedness. At this point the US had 35 cases and no deaths.

Feb 26, 2020: First case in South America, Brazil, from a traveller from Italy. Donald Trump tweets the following - "Low Ratings Fake News MSDNC (Comcast) & @CNN are doing everything possible to make the Caronavirus (sic) look as bad as possible, including panicking markets, if possible. Likewise their incompetent Do Nothing Democrat comrades are all talk, no action. USA in great shape!" (at this point there were 60 cases in the US. Less than 30 days later there are 333 Times that many.)

Feb 28, 2020: Coronavirus cases spread quickly through Europe, mainly from Italy. Also, the first cases show up in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Feb 29, 2020: First death reported in America. The number of global cases pass 87,000. The Trump administration announces travel bans to areas in Italy, South Korea, and Iran plus anybody who has been in Iran in the last 14 days.

Mar 3, 2020: After much resistance, the CDC finally lifted all restrictions on testing for the coronavirus after its testing system failed. There is a severe shortage of testing kits in America. So far there are over 90,000 worldwide with 3,000 deaths - a 3.3% mortality rate. In the US, there were 124 cases with 9 deaths - a 7.3% mortality rate.

Mar 6, 2020: Donald Trump tweets "The [coronavirus] tests are all perfect. Like the letter was perfect. The transcription was perfect. This was not a perfect as that, but pretty good." In fact, coronavirus tests were extremely limited. Regarding a cruise ship quarantined off the coast of San Francisco, Trump says "I like the numbers being where they are. I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship" -- Trump explains that he doesn't want to let people off the Grand Princess cruise ship because he doesn't want the number of coronavirus cases in the country to go up" There were 319 cases and 15 deaths in America - a 4.7% mortality rate.

Mar 9, 2020: Trump tweets "So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!"

Mar 10, 2020: Trump falsely says "“When people need a test, they can get a test (this is still not true 11 days later. Nor is -). When the professionals need a test, when they need tests for people, they can get the test. It’s gone really well. Look, the biggest thing that we did was stopping the inflow of people early on, and that was weeks ahead of schedule, weeks ahead of what other people would have done.”

Mar 11, 2020: Donald Trump bans travel to and from Europe except for England and Ireland.

Mar 13, 2020: Donald Trump declares a national emergency which releases $50 billion to help with battling the coronavirus. The number of US cases was 2,247 with 49 dead - a 2.1% mortality rate.

Mar 15, 2020: CDC recommends no gatherings of more than 50 people. Donald Trump follows this by saying people should limit gatherings to 10 people or less.

Mar 16, 2020: Several countries across Latin America announced nationwide quarantines: Ecuador, Peru, Columbia, Costa Rica. On the other hand, Jair Bolsonaro, the president of Brazil, encouraged mass demonstrations by his supporters against his opponents in congress.

Mar 17, 2020: France announces a nationwide lockdown. France has had more than 6,500 cases and 140 deaths - a 2.1% mortality rate. The European Union closes its borders.

Mar 19, 2020: China reports no new cases for the first time since Dec 2019. California's governor ordered his 40 million citizens to self-quarantine except for essential workers and activities.

Mar 20, 2020: The number of US cases passes 19,643 with 263 deaths - a 1.3% mortality rate. The lack of availability of testing kits is still severe but more problematic is the nationwide lack of other medical supplies, e.g. ventilators and even swabs. New York, Illinois, and Connecticut joined California in locking down their states bringing the total to 75 million in the United States.

Apr 2, 2020: Worldwide cases pass one million while cases in America surpass 210,000. Deaths worldwide exceed 54,000. of which 6,000 are in America. America is STILL experiencing severe shortages of personal protective equipment, ventilators, and pathogen testing kits (not as bad as it use to be). Becoming available are point of care instant testing devices which improve many aspects of fighting the coronavirus substantially. Also, instant kits have become available for home use that will tell you (the accuracy is unknown) whether you are currently infected as well as, and almost as importantly, whether you have had Covid (or MERS or SARS).

1 A much more complete timeline may be found here


Mar 21, 2020: Italy reports 627 new deaths for a total of 4,032 from 47,021 cases - a 8.6% mortality rate. This high rate may be due to their medical services being overwhelmed by the virus. Spain has over 21,000 cases with over 1,000 deaths - a 4.8% mortality rate. New Jersey joins 4 other states to go to a lockdown status.

Mar 25, 2020: The United States passed 1,000 deaths by the end of the day. The Senate passed the $2 Trillion coronavirus stimulus bill.

Mar 26, 2020: 3.3 Million Americans filed for jobless claims last week; 4 times more than the next highest previous number. The number of cases should pass 500,000 globally with 22,030 deaths. This is a 4.7% mortality rate which is an increase of about 1 point. In America, it is 1.4%.

Mar 27, 2020: Boris Johnson, England's Prime Minister, tested positive for COVID-19. The United States surpassed 100,000 cases today, the most in the world which has over 600,000 cases.

Apr 5, 2020: Over 10 million Americans have now filed for jobless claims so far; it will grow. 1.3 million have or have had coronavirus worldwide and 337,000 in America. 70,000 have died in the world and almost 10,000 in America.

Apr 7, 2020: America surpases 400,000 cases and 13,000 deaths.

Apr 10, 2020: America surpases 500,000 cases and 18,000 deaths. There still are not enough culture or blood tests to conduct coronavirus surveillance in America.

Apr 12, 2020: There are many signs that the social distancing is "flattening the curve"

Apr 17, 2020: The world has surpassed 2.4 million cases and 167,000 deaths. America has in excess of 755,000 of Known case and 40,000 deaths. That puts the death rate worldwide at 6.7% and in America at 5.3%. A recent study out of Santa Clara, CA suggests the ACTUAL number of cases in America may be 50 times as high as that reported. If true, then the number of cases of Covid-19 in the US may be as high as 37,750,000; more than the 2018 flu outbreak. In number of deaths, the Covid outbreak ranks 4th, since 2010. It will likely become number 1 around the end of this month.

Apr 18, 2020: The current estimate from the St. Louis Fed is for GDP to shrink 0.3% for the 1st Qtr, 2020.

Apr 24, 2020: More milestones.

  • The worldwide growth rate in cases has decreased from 10.7% per day at the beginning of April to 3.3% per day now.
  • The US growth rate in cases has decreased from 20.5% per day at the beginning of April to 4.2% per day now.
  • The US growth rate in Deaths has decreased from 26.6% per day at the beginning of April to 7.3% per day now.
  • Almost 3 million cases worldwide
  • Over 200,000 dead worldwide
  • Almost 1 million US cases
  • Over 52,000 US deaths
  • 12 states have Increasing rates of infections (5 of those still have no stay-at-home orders
  • 24 states have no trend (1 of which has no stay-at-home order)
  • 16 states have Declining rates of infection (1 of which has no stay-at-home order)
  • 4 states still have rates of growth over 8% - NE, ND, SD, IA
  • 14 states have rates of growth equal to or greater than 5%
  • 5 states have rates of growth less than 2% - AK, HI, LA, MT, VT

Apr 30, 2020: America is about to pass 1.1 million cases with 64,000 deaths. Based on recent studies, the actual case count could be between 30,000.000 and 50,000,000 cases, about 14% of our total population. For "herd" immunity, about 332 million will have had to catch it. Based on the 50 million actual case estimate, the mortality rate of known Covid-related deaths is 0.128% (slightly higher than the flu. Based on the 30 million, the death rate would be 0.213%; more than double that of the flu. If the 1.1 million cases is correct, then the mortality rate is a whopping 5.8%!!)

May 2, 2020: More milestones.

  • 1st Qtr GDP fell an annualized 4.8% rather than the 0.3% predicted just a week ago.
  • The worldwide growth rate in cases has decreased from the last report of 3.3% per day to 2.8% per day now.
  • The US growth rate in cases has decreased from 4.2% per day from the last report to 3.2% per day now.
  • The US growth rate in Deaths has decreased from 7.3% per day from the last report to 3.5% per day now.
  • Over 3.5 million cases worldwide
  • Over 247,000 dead worldwide
  • Almost 1.2 million US cases
  • Over 68,000 US deaths
  • 10 states have Increasing rates of infections (2 of those still have no stay-at-home orders
  • 31 states have no trend (5 of which has no stay-at-home order)
  • 11 states have Declining rates of infection (1 of which has no stay-at-home order)
  • 2 states still have rates of growth over 8% - NE(11.1%), IA (8.8%)
  • 7 states have rates of growth equal to or greater than 5%
  • 6 states have rates of growth less than 2% - AK, HI, ID, LA, MT, VT

May 9, 2020: More milestones.

  • April 2020 unemployment rate jumped to 14.7% from 3.6%!
  • But because many people gave up, the more inclusive U-6 rate, which counts those who gave up, jumped from 7.1% to 22.8%!!! .
  • The worldwide growth rate in cases has decreased from the last report of 2.8% per day to 2.4% per day now.
  • The US growth rate in cases has decreased from 3.2% per day from the last report to 2.4% per day now.
  • The US growth rate in Deaths has decreased from 3.5% per day from the last report to 2.6% per day now.
  • Over 4.1 million cases worldwide
  • Over 281,000 dead worldwide
  • Almost 1.4 million US cases
  • Over 80,000 US deaths
  • 9 states have Increasing rates of infections (1 of those still have no stay-at-home orders
  • 26 states have no trend (3 of which has no stay-at-home order)
  • 17 states have Declining rates of infection (4 of which has no stay-at-home order)
  • 2 states still have rates of growth over 8% - NE(8.1%), MN (8.8%)
  • 2 states have rates of growth equal to or greater than 5% - IA (6.1%), KS (6.0%)
  • 13 states have rates of growth less than 2% - AK, AR, CT, FL, HI, ID, LA, MI, MT, NJ, NY, VT, WY

May 17, 2020: More milestones.

  • 3,000,000 more people filed for first time unemployment
  • The worldwide growth rate in cases has decreased from the last report of 2.4% per day to 2.1% per day now.
  • The US growth rate in cases has decreased from 2.4% per day from the last report to 1.7% per day now.
  • The US growth rate in Deaths has decreased from 2.6% per day from the last report to 1.7% per day now.
  • Over 4.8 million cases worldwide
  • Over 317,000 dead worldwide
  • Over 1.5 million US cases
  • Over 91,000 US deaths
  • 4 states have Increasing rates of infections (3 of those still have no stay-at-home orders
  • 24 states have no trend (2 of which has no stay-at-home order)
  • 24 states have Declining rates of infection (3 of which has no stay-at-home order)
  • 0 states still have rates of growth over 8% -
  • 1 state has rates of growth equal to or greater than 5% - MN (5.3%)
  • 23 states have rates of growth less than 2%

May 22, 2020: More milestones.

  • Another 2,500,000 people filed for first time unemployment
  • The worldwide growth rate in cases has decreased from the last report of 2.1% per day to 2.0% per day now.
  • The US growth rate in cases has decreased from 1.7% per day from the last report to 1.6% per day now.
  • The US growth rate in Deaths has decreased from 1.7% per day from the last report to 1.6% per day now.
  • Over 5.3 million cases worldwide
  • Over 340,000 dead worldwide
  • Over 1.6 million US cases
  • Over 98,000 US deaths
  • 12 states have Increasing rates of infections
  • 25 states have no trend
  • 15 states have Declining rates of infection
  • 0 states still have rates of growth over 8% -
  • 0 state has rates of growth equal to or greater than 5% and less than 8%
  • 18 states have rates of growth between 1% and less than 2%
  • 6 states have rates of growth less than 1%

May 29, 2020: More milestones.

  • Another 2,100,000 people filed for first time unemployment for a total of 40,700,000 since March 21, 2020
  • The worldwide growth rate in cases has decreased from the last report of 2.0% per day to 1.9% per day now.
  • The US growth rate in cases has decreased from 1.6% per day from the last report to 1.3% per day now.
  • The US growth rate in Deaths has decreased from 1.6% per day from the last report to 1.1% per day now.
  • Over 6.1 million cases worldwide
  • Over 368,000 dead worldwide
  • Over 1.8 million US cases
  • Over 105,000 US deaths
  • 6 states have Increasing rates of infections
  • 31 states have no trend
  • 16 states have Declining rates of infection
  • 0 states still have rates of growth over 8% -
  • 0 state has rates of growth equal to or greater than 5% and less than 8%
  • 25 states have rates of growth between 1% and less than 2%
  • 9 states have rates of growth less than 1%

June 5, 2020: More milestones.

  • America and the world may be on the verge of turning a corner in its fight against Coronavirus - IN THE WRONG DIRECTION
  • Another 1,900,000 people filed for first time unemployment for a total of 43,000,000 since March 21, 2020
  • Unemployment, however, surprised everybody and declined for May to 13.3% from 14.7% in April.
  • The worldwide growth rate in cases has remained constant from the last report of 1.9% per day and remains 1.9% per day now.
  • The US growth rate in cases has remained constant from 1.3% per day from the last report to 1.3% per day now.
  • The US growth rate in Deaths has decreased from 1.1% per day from the last report to 1.0% per day now.
  • Over 6.9 million cases worldwide
  • Over 400,000 dead worldwide
  • Over 2.0 million US cases - a new milestone!
  • Over 112,000 US deaths
  • 16 states have Increasing rates of infections, up from 6 last week
  • 13 states have no trend, down from 31 last week
  • 22 states have Declining rates of infection, up from 16 last week
  • 0 states still have rates of growth over 8% -
  • 0 state has rates of growth equal to or greater than 5% and less than 8%
  • 24 states have rates of growth between 1% and less than 2%, down from 25 last week
  • 10 states have rates of growth less than 1%, up from 9 last week

June 12, 2020: More milestones.

  • America and the world is closer to being on the verge of turning a corner in its fight against Coronavirus - IN THE WRONG DIRECTION
  • Another 1,500,000 people filed for first time unemployment for a total of 46,000,000 since March 21, 2020
  • The worldwide growth rate in cases has dropped slightly from the last report of 1.9% per day to 1.8% per day now.
  • The US growth rate in cases has decreased slightly from 1.3% per day from the last report to 1.2% per day now.
  • The US growth rate in Deaths has decreased from 1.0% per day from the last report to 0.8% per day now.
  • Over 7.8 million cases worldwide
  • Over 430,000 dead worldwide
  • Over 2.1 million US cases - a new milestone!
  • Over 117,000 US deaths
  • 13 states have R0 values greater than 1.0 meaning cases are expanding
  • 12 states have Increasing rates of infections, down from 16 last week
  • 21 states have no trend, down from 13 last week
  • 18 states have Declining rates of infection, down from 22 last week
  • 0 states still have rates of growth over 8% -
  • 1 state has rates of growth equal to or greater than 5% and less than 8%, up from zero last week
  • 24 states have rates of growth between 1% and less than 2%, down from 25 last week
  • 10 states have rates of growth less than 1%, up from 9 last week

June 19, 2020: More milestones.

  • America and the world is closer still to being on the verge of turning a corner in its fight against Coronavirus - IN THE WRONG DIRECTION
  • Another 1,500,000 people filed for first time unemployment for a total of 48,000,000 since March 21, 2020
  • The worldwide growth rate in cases remained constant at 1.8% per day last week to 1.8% per day now.
  • The US growth rate in cases remained constant at 1.2% per day from the last report to 1.2% per day now.
  • The US growth rate in Deaths has decreased from 0.8% per day from the last report to 0.6% per day now.
  • Over 9.0 million cases worldwide
  • Over 430,000 dead worldwide
  • Over 2.3 million US cases
  • Over 122,000 US deaths
  • 14 states have R0 values greater than 1.0 meaning cases are expanding
  • 17 states have Increasing rates of infections, down from 12 last week
  • 19 states have no trend, down from 21 last week
  • 16 states have Declining rates of infection, down from 18 last week
  • 0 states still have rates of growth over 8% -
  • 1 state has rates of growth equal to or greater than 5% and less than 8%, up from zero last week
  • 21 states have rates of growth between 1% and less than 2%, down from 24 last week
  • 16 states have rates of growth less than 1%, up from 10 last week

June 26, 2020: More milestones.

  • America and the world has turned a corner in its fight against Coronavirus - IN THE WRONG DIRECTION, mainly because of America, Russian, and Latin/South America.
  • Another 1,500,000 people filed for first time unemployment for a total of 49,000,000 since March 21, 2020
  • The worldwide growth rate in cases remained constant. It was 1.8% per day last week and is 1.8% per day now.
  • The US growth rate in cases GREW from 1.2% per day from the last report to 1.4% per day now. This growth reduced the date when America will surpass 35 million from Feb 2021 to Dec 2020.
  • The US growth rate in Deaths has decreased from 0.6% per day from the last report to 0.5% per day now.
  • Over 10.0 million cases worldwide
  • Over 500,000 dead worldwide
  • Over 2.6 million US cases
  • Over 128,000 US deaths
  • 28 states have R0 values greater than 1.0 meaning cases are expanding
  • 23 states have Increasing rates of infections, down from 17 last week
  • 25 states have no trend, up from 19 last week
  • 4 states have Declining rates of infection, down from 16 last week
  • 0 states still have rates of growth over 8% -
  • 1 state has rates of growth equal to or greater than 5% and less than 8%, up from zero last week
  • 14 states have rates of growth between 1% and less than 2%, down from 21 last week
  • 19 states have rates of growth less than 1%, up from 16 last week

July 3, 2020: More milestones.

  • America and the world has turned a corner in its fight against Coronavirus - IN THE WRONG DIRECTION, mainly because of America, Russia, India, and Latin/South America.
  • Another 1,500,000 people filed for first time unemployment for a total of 50,000,000 since March 21, 2020
  • The worldwide growth rate in cases remained constant. It was 1.8% per day last week and is 1.8% per day now.
  • The US growth rate in cases GREW from 1.4% per day from the last report to 1.8% per day now. This growth reduced the date when America will surpass 35 million from Feb 2021 to Nov 2020.
  • The US growth rate in Deaths remained constant at 0.5% per day from the last report to 0.5% per day now. (It should be increasing by next report)
  • Over 11.2 million cases worldwide
  • Over 531,000 dead worldwide
  • Over 2.9 million US cases
  • Over 132,000 US deaths
  • 9 states have R0 values greater than 1.19 meaning cases are Super-Spreading - FL, HI, ID, MI, MT, NV, OK, WI, and WY (bolded are really bad)
  • 17 states have R0 values greater than 1.09 and less than 1.2 meaning cases are Spreading - AK, AZ, CA, DE, GA, KS, LA, MS, MO, OH, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, WA, and WV
  • 12 states have R0 values greater than .99 and less than 1.1 meaning cases are expanding slightly - AL, AR, CO, IN, IA, ME, MN, NM, NY, ND, OR, and UT
  • 13 states have R0 values less than 1.01 meaning cases are steady or contracting - CT, DC, IL, KY, MD, MA, NE, NH, NJ, NC, RI, VT, and VA
  • 28 states have Increasing rates of infections, up from 23 last week
  • 23 states have no trend, down from 25 last week
  • 1 state has a Declining rate of infection, down from 4 last week and 16 two weeks ago
  • 0 states still have rates of growth over 8% -
  • 1 state has rates of growth equal to or greater than 5% and less than 8%, up from zero last week - Arkansas
  • 13 states have rates of growth between 1% and less than 2%, down from 14 last week
  • 17 states have rates of growth less than 1%, down from 19 last week

July 10, 2020: More milestones.

  • America and the world has turned a corner in its fight against Coronavirus - IN THE WRONG DIRECTION, mainly because of America, Russia, India, and Latin/South America. - No change
  • Another 1,300,000 people filed for first time unemployment for a total of 51,000,000 since March 21, 2020
  • The worldwide growth rate in cases remained constant. It was 1.8% per day last week and is 1.8% per day now.
  • The US growth rate in cases GREW from 1.8% per day from the last report to 1.9% per day now. This growth reduced the date when America will surpass 35 million sometime between Feb 2021 to Nov 2020.
  • The US growth rate in Deaths remained constant at 0.5% per day from the last report to 0.5% per day now. (It should be increasing by next report)
  • Over 12.9 million cases worldwide
  • Over 569,000 dead worldwide
  • Over 3.4 million US cases (more likely 34.0 million based on CDC study)
  • Over 138,000 US deaths
  • 8 states have R0 values greater than 1.19 meaning cases are Super-Spreading - DE, HI, ID, IN, MN, MT, WV, and WI (bolded are really bad)
  • 21 states have R0 values greater than 1.09 and less than 1.2 meaning cases are Spreading - AK, CA, CO, FL, GA, IA, KS, KY, LA, MI, MS, MO, NE, NM, ND, OH, OK, PA, TX, WA, and WY
  • 15 states have R0 values greater than .99 and less than 1.1 meaning cases are expanding slightly - AL, AZ, IL, MD, MA, NV, NJ, NY, OR, SC, SD, TN, UT, VT, and VA
  • 7 states have R0 values less than 1.01 meaning cases are steady or contracting - AR, CT, DC, ME, NH, NC, and RI
  • 25 states have Increasing rates of infections, down from 28 last week
  • 24 states have no trend, up from 23 last week
  • 3 states have Declining rates of infection, up from 1 last week
  • 0 states still have rates of growth over 8% -
  • 2 states have rates of growth equal to or greater than 5% and less than 8%, up from 1 last week - Idaho and Montana
  • 13 states have rates of growth between 1% and less than 2%, the same as last week
  • 16 states have rates of growth less than 1%, down from 17 last week

July 17, 2020: More milestones.

  • It just keeps getting worse in America, Brazil, India, Russian, South Africa, Peru, and Mexico. The rest of the world as figured out how keep infection rates very low.
  • Another 1,200,000 people filed for first time unemployment for a total of 52,000,000 since March 21, 2020
  • The worldwide growth rate in cases declined slightly. It was 1.8% per day last week and is 1.7% per day now.
  • The US growth rate in cases GREW from 1.9% per day from the last report to 1.95% per day now. This growth reduced the date when America will surpass 35 million sometime between Feb 2021 to Nov 2020.
  • The US growth rate in Deaths remained GREW from 0.5% per day from the last report to 0.58% per day now. (It should be increasing again by next report)
  • Over 14.6 million cases worldwide
  • Over 606,000 dead worldwide
  • Over 3.8 million US cases (more likely 34.0 million based on CDC study)
  • Over 143,000 US deaths
  • 7 states have R0 values greater than 1.19 meaning cases are Super-Spreading - AK, ID, IN, KY, MT, WV, and WY (bolded are really bad)
  • 14 states have R0 values greater than 1.09 and less than 1.2 meaning cases are Spreading - AR, CO, HI, IA, KS, LA, MI, MN, NY, ND, OK, RI, VA, and WI
  • 22 states have R0 values greater than .99 and less than 1.1 meaning cases are expanding slightly - AL, CA, DE, FL, GA, IL, MD, MA, MS, MO, NE, NV, NJ, NM, OH, OR, PA, SC, TN, TX, VT, and WA
  • 8 states have R0 values less than 1.01 meaning cases are steady or contracting - AZ, CT, DC, ME, NH, NC, SD, and UT
  • 26 states have Increasing rates of infections, up from 25 last week
  • 21 states have no trend, down from 24 last week
  • 5 states have Declining rates of infection, up from 3 last week
  • 0 states still have rates of growth over 8% -
  • 2 states have rates of growth equal to or greater than 5% and less than 8%, up from 1 last week - Idaho and Montana (which is at 6%!)
  • 11 states have rates of growth between 1% and less than 2%, down from 13 last week
  • 13 states have rates of growth less than 1%, down from 16 last week

July 24, 2020: More milestones.

  • It just keeps getting worse for the world but in America there are a few signs it may be getting better.
  • Another 1,400,000 people filed for first time unemployment, an increase over last week, for a total of 54,000,000 since March 21, 2020
  • The worldwide growth rate in cases remained constant. It was 1.7% per day last week and is 1.7% per day now.
  • The US growth rate in cases Declined from 1.95% per day from the last report to 1.83% per day now. This growth reduced the date when America will surpass 35 million sometime between Feb 2021 to Nov 2020.
  • The US growth rate in Deaths remained GREW from 0.58% per day from the last report to 0.65% per day now. (It should be increasing again by next report)
  • Over 16.1 million cases worldwide
  • Over 645,000 dead worldwide
  • Over 4.1 million US cases (more likely 41.0 million based on CDC study)
  • Over 149,000 US deaths
  • 4 states now have R0 values greater than 1.19 meaning cases are Super-Spreading - KY, MO, RI(!), and WY (bolded are really bad)
  • 14 states have R0 values greater than 1.09 and less than 1.2 meaning cases are Spreading - AK, AL, AR, CO, DE, DC, IL, ID, MD, MT, MS, ND, NE, and WV
  • 25 states have R0 values greater than .99 and less than 1.1 meaning cases are expanding slightly - AZ, CA, CT, GA, KS, HI. IA, IN, LA, MN, MA, MI NH, NV, NJ, NM, NY, OH, OK, PA, TN, VA, VT, and WI
  • 8 states have R0 values less than 1.01 meaning cases are steady or contracting - FL, ME, NC, OR, SC, SD, TX, and WA
  • 26 states have Increasing rates of infections, up from 25 last week
  • 21 states have no trend, down from 24 last week
  • 5 states have Declining rates of infection, up from 3 last week
  • 0 states still have rates of growth over 8% -
  • 2 states have rates of growth equal to or greater than 5% and less than 8%, up from 1 last week - Idaho and Montana (which is at 6%!)
  • 11 states have rates of growth between 1% and less than 2%, down from 13 last week
  • 13 states have rates of growth less than 1%, down from 16 last week

Oct 9, 2020

Donald Trump has been out campaigning in several battleground states:

Is it any coincidence that cases started rising about 15 days after he was there?

MN: First visit was Aug 17 with 2 more visits. MN has seen a steady increase since Sep 18.

WI: First visit was Aug 18 with 1 more visit. WI has seen a steady increase since Aug 28

NY: First visit was Aug 18. NY has seen a steady increase since Sep 4 (a more likely cause is the ultra orthodox Jews)

PA: First visit was Aug 20 with 2 more visits. PA has seen a steady increase since Sep 11.

NC: First visit was Aug 24 with 4 more visits. NC has seen a steady increase since Sep 18

MI: First visit was Sep 10. MI has seen a steady increase since Sep 25

NV: First visit was Sep 12. NV has seen a small increase since Sep 25

AZ: First visit was Sep 14. AZ has seen a steady increase since Oct 2

OH: First visit was Sep 21. Too soon to see trend

FL: First visit was Sep 24. Too soon to see trend


© 2020 Scott Belford

Comments

Scott Belford (author) from Keystone Heights, FL on August 10, 2020:

And thank you for reading and commenting. Check back every once in a while as I update this periodically.

Mariah Bruce from Portland, OR on August 10, 2020:

Wow! Very thorough examination of these historical times we are living in. This will be one for the textbooks.

It's fascinating to see how the different state's policies have played out in the few months since your original post. The way it all played out here in the U.S. is shameful and just the worst-case scenario (in my personal opinion).

Thank you for sharing.

Scott Belford (author) from Keystone Heights, FL on March 21, 2020:

Notice that big black area called Russia? You think they are lying? I do.

Scott Belford (author) from Keystone Heights, FL on March 20, 2020:

My wife and I were in the same situation coming from Las Vegas the end of January. She was very sick and I only somewhat. Even though she tested positive for Flu-A her daughter is convinced she had COVID-19. Like your story, Mary was much more symptomatic for corona than the flu.

Doris James MizBejabbers from Beautiful South on March 19, 2020:

Frightening, and even more proof that the right-wing conspiracy is going to be the death of us yet. I don't mind staying at home. In fact I hate to run necessary errands, such as to the pharmacy, grocery store, or the bank.

Today I was visiting a specialty facebook group of which I'm a member, and several people were claiming that they or a family member had COVID symptoms before it publicly hit the U.S., some dating back to last summer. I thought about it, and my husband had flu in February that was more symptomatic of COVID than flu, and I ran a fever while he was sick but was without other symptoms. We'd both had our flu shots. I'm wondering now if we actually had the virus here before it became public, and how many people may have been infected and it passed off as the flu. Some folks will say that it can't be, because the government would never lie about it. I still don't believe he had the flu. He had been to the VA, a few days before he became ill. The air base near us had 9 cases there before it became public that our state had the virus at all.