October 16th, it was August 10th, when the 1st part of the 4th stimulus package the $1.1 trillion Infrastructure package was passed by the Senate. This portion of the stimulus package will focus on rebuilding the nation's roads, bridges, tunnels, expand broadband, improve public transit and in the process create millions of good-paying jobs.
Despite it getting bi-partisan support which took months, the Democrats proposed $3.5 trillion American Families Plan is the second and costly part of this 4th stimulus. Getting bipartisan support will be a huge challenge, to say the least. So where are we at?
The U.S. unemployment rate in September was 4.8%. It was just announced that Social Security recipients will get a 5.9% Cost of Living Allowance (COLA) beginning in January. That's the biggest increase since 1983.
I know since January I went from paying $1.97 a gallon to paying $3.29.
Some Democrats are balking at the $3.5 trillion price tag. Of course, Joe Manchin is leading the way and wants to lower the price tag, and that most likely will happen.
The COVID-19 pandemic is not exactly over, but for sure things are steadily progressing and so much out there that has opened up to near capacity levels.
U.S. is still the global leader in COVID-19 cases with 45,729,049 and also in deaths with 743,802. 57.5% of Americans have been fully vaccinated
In India, they have the 2nd most cases worldwide with 34,052,687 to sadly go with 452,008 deaths. In the heavily populated, large country of India, only about 20% have been fully vaccinated.
Brazil is third in cases with 21,627,476 cases and also unfortunately 2nd in deaths with 602,669 In Brazil about 49% have been fully vaccinated.
Considering Joe Biden popularity in the polls is falling and the Democrats have the ability to pass this huge $3.5 trillion 4th stimulus bill on their own via reconciliation, a 4th stimulus check of $2,000 or $1,400 is quite possible. If so, it would likely have the same income thresholds; Single must make $75,000 or less, and a married couple make no more than $150,000
Those recurring monthly payments of $2,000 are an absolute long shot. I anticipate the 4th stimulus package gets approved and people get paid sometime in November. Or certainly before the end of the year, the latest. Let's hope it's sometime in November.
jameswritesbest (author) on August 14, 2020:
I do appreciate you taking the time to read my article and also for your most informative and detailed response. Be well & stay safe
CHRIS57 from Northern Germany on August 14, 2020:
You wrapped up the facts very clearly.
Looking at the mess from the outside, let me do some remarks on the US as a whole and the state of New York in particular.
It looks like the state of New York actually followed moreless the same restriction, distancing and lockdown measures that European countries have enacted. The result: Bending the curve, reducing the number of active cases. The relief is obvious. Daily deaths are small compared to Texas or Florida.
When NY peaked in daily new cases (somwhere around April 8th), the state had recorded 9.000 deaths. Today it is 32.000 deaths.
So even if you peak in new cases, the aftermath is horrible (3,5 times).
This is well within the range of what other countries on our planet registered, that had peaked and brought down fatalities.
You can do your own math and do this for the whole US. It will be a bit more complicated, because you have to subtract the states which are static (like NY) and do the multiplying.
My quick pick would be: US peaked on 20th of July. Death count 145.000. The states (today static) to be subtracted probably peaked combined beginning of May. (then 70.000 deaths).
My quick and dirty maths: 145.000 - 70.000 = 75.000.
Apply the multiplier 3,5 = 75.000 x 3,5 = 262.500
Add the already static states again: 262.500 + 70.000 = 332.500
Within a one year period after Covid19 outbreak the US will be very lucky if numbers are kept below 300.000.
Imho vaccination programs will not help enough. Here in Germany the early infected and recovered Covid-19 patients already lost their immunity (antibodies). Happened within 3 months. Hopefully vaccines do better than the virus itself did in creating immunity...