The author is an air warrior, military historian and writer on warfare and military history
Ukraine is the hot spot in the world where a matchstick could lead to a nuclear conflagration. The Russians attacked Ukraine and there are valid reasons for it, they felt threatened by the deliberate expansion of NATO. The purpose was to keep Russia perpetually weak and lose any aspiration to becoming a global power. The war has commenced, and many months have elapsed, but the Russians haven't been able to overrun the country. That is something which we have to accept. Having just captured some territory in the Donbas region coupled with the failure to capture Kyiv and Kharkiv are telling aspects of the Russian military operations.
Why could the Russians not overrun Ukraine, which didn't have much military power? the facts are elementary, Russia did not plan the invasion properly. they thought it was a cakewalk, walk in and Ukraine is going to surrender. It did not happen that way because this is global politics for world domination. The Americans were not going to allow this to happen. They were bound to intervene and Putin should have anticipated it
Zelensky for all his faults knew that he had the backing of the Americans and the British and he continued opposing the Russians. The entire problem could have been solved in five minutes if the Ukrainian president had agreed not to join NATO or the EU and not to become a bulwark against Russia. He didn't do that because he was confident of American help and the Russians fell into the trap and just walked into Ukraine.
The Russian generals and Putin should have studied the theory of Guilio Douhet, the father of strategic bombing. He says that air power is decisive and must be applied. This is where the Russians faltered. They never bombed Ukraine even for one day, unlike the Americans who bombed Kosovo for almost 60 days and Iraq for 70 days before invading these countries. Russians did nothing; they just walked in, as you walk into a drawing room,
The resistance picked up, and the USA supplied weapons to the Ukrainians and though they've been losing 100 men every day they're still fighting and the Russians have not been able to make the headway that they would have liked to make. The Russians are now using thermobaric devices. What are they? These weapons yield the equivalent of 44 tons of TNT of high explosives. The bomb's blast and pressure wave have an effect similar to a small tactical nuclear weapon. The bomb detonates in mid-air for devastating effect.
All over the world military theorists, and people like me have been wondering what really went wrong with the Russian invasion. It was complacency and later when Putin woke up and decided to use his advanced weapons they made some gains and are slowly moving forward but it's slow.
They have not yet been able to capture Odesa and Kharkiv, and just capturing one or two seaports doesn't mean that victory is assured. They may have won the battle but not the war and the fight will continue.
If the war continues what are the repercussions? that is the critical point, the western powers are playing with fire, hoping to emasculate Russia economically so that the Russians will themselves give up.
This is all very well politically to try and isolate Russia, but another aspect has come to light: the economic stranglehold is not happening. The Russian ruble has rebounded mainly because of the steps taken by the Russian Central Bank which decided to trade only in rubles.
Russia is an export surplus country as far as oil and natural gas are concerned and all the countries of western Europe including Germany and France are dependent on Russia for gas. They have now realized that applying sanctions on Russia also affects them as well.
The Americans are relentless because their economy is so strong, that it can sustain anything. it's a 20 trillion economy so they can stand, they can sustain but I'm not sure about the east European and the west European nations; because they have no natural resources, nothing, no oil no gas, and in the present world these are two quantities which you need
Russia had been supplying their needs so far but now the Russians have turned off the tap and that has made these countries more desperate and they'll try extreme measures. The best course of action would be to negotiate with the Russians; accept whatever they're saying and then go ahead and say well let's move forward but it's not happening that way.
Stalin and Putin
Putin is trying to mold himself into a Stalin but the Soviet leader had a lot of plus points and Putin is not on that level. All the same, he is attempting and that attempt is to confront the United States and not give in, even though his military has made very slow progress. Now what happens next? what are we going to do? if the Americans tweak the sanctions more they are going to suffer. The western powers will suffer and that may lead to an act of desperation. The Russians could do something so drastic that the next stage is only the stone age
This is where statesmanship is required which unfortunately Biden clouded by his thought process failed to demonstrate. He was helped by the thinking of his generals brought up on a diet of anti-sovietism who haven't gotten out of that frame of mind that Russia is the enemy. They still feel Russia is the enemy and they created the enemy so that NATO could survive. When you make artificial creations they collapse and already NATO is under a lot of pressure.
They haven't intervened in Ukraine and though they have accepted membership of Sweden and Finland, I don't think they are going to intervene for them, in case the Russians move against them. America will not put boots on the ground. They have been chastened by the retreat from Afghanistan.
Even the Americans know that it requires only one or two thermonuclear bombs to wipe off the small EU nations from the world map including England. We are coming to the situation where the Russians might get desperate. How long can the Russians fight?
The Russian economy is not that strong and they are in some trouble so they need to have a quick solution. They are using the latest rockets with air bombardment but it's come too late. Had they started it from day one, by now the war would have been over. The delay has given time for Zelensky to marshall his forces; get help from the Americans and beef up his defense. The only possibility is a complete collapse of morale of the Ukrainian army. We haven't got any information on that at the moment.
At the moment they are still fighting but thousands have been taken, prisoner. I feel that by their actions, the western powers are moving every day closer and closer to a nuclear war.
You can't have peace with Russia and at the same time keep putting sanctions. and try to isolate Russia from the world. The Americans are going to fail in this because the world is not going to tow the American line lock, stock, and barrel.
The need is a president who can think ahead because economic sanctions are up to a level. The Americans are marshaling all the countries against Russia but things are not working their way. Iran is defying them and I understand they are going to supply the air warfare drones which they made in Iran to Russia. Iran is not a great technological power but probably they have perfected this particular device.
Israel also is worried about Iran, so Biden has just visited Israel and Saudi Arabia. He's eaten all his words about the Khashoggi murder case. Here's a man who was talking a lot against Saudi Arabia in the Khashoggi murder case and also had stopped the weapon export to Saudi Arabia for its actions in Yemen but he turned turtle because his one aim is now to try and contain Russia. It is not easy as Russia is the biggest country in the world and China is on the side of the Russians.
The American thinking is that Russia can be destroyed and then we can have an accommodation with China. it's not going to happen as China is not going to make any accommodation until they are the number one power in the world as they were during the middle ages.
The Americans must draw lessons from the history of Russia from the time of Napoleon. Russians never surrender and so the next step is only escalation. The Americans escalated the conflict with the induction of the HIMARS artillery system. A foolish step as Putin and his generals have been hinting that they don't mind a nuclear strike. The result? destruction of the small countries in Europe. America will survive, but England and other small countries will vanish from the global map. America will also suffer and lose its position as the no one global power. A frightening thought.
I will end on a sobering note with the hope that sanity prevails and the u.s president and the West have an accommodation with Russia and stop trying to pump up Mr. Zelensky. He needs to face an international tribunal as a war criminal; if you could try the Japanese leaders for starting a World War, there's no reason you can't try Zelinski for having dragged his nation into war and destroying it. What has he gained out of it?
© 2022 MG Singh