MG is a senior air warrior who is an alumnus of the Staff College and a notable writer on military history.
Ukraine is in the news. Another important day just passed and that is the 9th of May. This is the day the Russian people celebrate their victory over Nazi Germany with a military parade. The parade has been held and Putin has brandished his nuclear weapons.
Ninth May is a day of celebration in Russia of the time when Adolf Hitler was defeated and Stalin was the victor. It was a sort of a battle between two iron-willed men and Stalin prevailed. it was a great victory, and there's no doubt that the western powers would not have won the Second World war, in case the Russians were not fighting on their side.
Now politics is the art of expediency so, they've forgotten all about that.
Times have changed and now as per the latest doctrine which has been put forward by the Americans( to perpetuate their hegemony over Europe) is that Russia is the enemy; while in World War, II Russia was the ally.
Much water has flowed down the Thames. The Russians have held their military parade and celebration but this is in the background of their operations in Ukraine which I'm afraid has not gone according to plan, why? because the plan was faulty. Vladimir Putin, in my opinion, is not in the same class as Joseph Stalin. Stalin was ruthless and he knew what he wanted; Putin is halfway down the line and halfway has got no meaning; either you are in or you're out. He planned the Ukraine operation taking in the intelligence input from his generals. I'm afraid his intelligence was poor and he hadn't catered to the resolve of the small countries of NATO who were so scared of the Russian bear that they went into the American embrace straight away
He thought that Europe is getting all its oil and gas from Russia and he had the leverage, he still has that leverage but he is losing it fast.
NATO and the EU are looking for other options and there are plenty of them though they are very costly, for example, Saudi Arabia is stepping in to supply oil to Europe. it's going to take time but ultimately in the long run if the battle continues it'll be Kaput for the Russians in Europe as far as trade is concerned.
Putin should have over-run Ukraine by now but he's nowhere near it. He's just taken about twenty percent of the territory. One can call it a victory or anything but it's not the decimation of Zelensky.
What's going to happen next? Putin had nothing much to show off in the May Day parade. They couldn't do much in Ukraine. They couldn't take Kyiv and Kharkiv and even now a small portion of the city of Mariupol is still in the hands of the Azov Brigade, which is a Nihilist group of men; who believe in death and destruction and they don't mind dying, they die.
Putin has to bite the bullet. He didn't bite it properly because you can't have half measures in any war; that's not how a war is fought.
His reactions to the western powers have been very poor and his planning of the invasion of Ukraine was poorer still. He thought it would be a limited military engagement but it didn't turn out that way, the Americans outsmarted him. In addition, they were able to get the smaller countries of Europe together by creating the bogie of Russia.
Putin ordered the invasion without taking into account the capability of the Ukrainian forces. Ukrainians and the Russians are of the same racial stock, the Slav race but unfortunately, he didn't make the proper assessments. He didn't bomb Ukraine much earlier which he should have done
His campaign should have begun with a massive bombing of the Ukrainian military installations all over the country for at least 20 days. He didn't do that; there was no bombing, he just moved in with the army and the air force. It was complacency at its worst.
In addition, his generals let him down. I think they were a lot of mediocre military leaders and six of them got killed. Once a general gets killed, how are you going to fight the war? they lost their flagship the Moskova in the Black Sea and the Russian navy has been practically able to do nothing. They have taken some areas, yes but they are minuscule and after you're fighting for almost over two months you're nothing much to show. The Indian army occupied an area as big as Ukraine in 13 days( Defeat of Pakistan) because it was a campaign where general Aurora burned the midnight oil in Fort William and planned the campaign, village by village. Russia has to be faulted for zero military planning. They are to be faulted because they didn't react properly to the western alliance.
The result is he has become a paper tiger, Nuclear drills, this thing, that thing I mean what was the use of all that? However, there is a big danger if Putin fails.
A drowning man catches a straw, any straw and he has to keep his prestige among the people in the world. What is the world going to say? Russians got defeated in Ukraine? They went in with a lot of fanfare, drums, and whatnot and they got defeated; can Putin afford that? no, so he has to win at any cost and when you want to win at any cost you may use desperate measures.
The only thing he has left is tactical nuclear weapons that he can use. Even if a few of them are used I'm sure the Ukrainians will be finished and this man Zelensky who has led Ukraine to ruin will be just wiped away.
The Russian failure is telling and I think the Russian military prestige has gone down, China is watching the Russian actions with great interest.
They are going to invade Taiwan; there's no doubt about that because yesterday almost two dozen aircraft of the Chinese Air Force intruded into the airspace of Taiwan why? they wanted to test the defenses and how good is the radar and how good are the interceptors, but nothing much happened. you know they came back
What is going to happen next?
As I've said a cornered man can do anything and if the west corners Putin they are going to get burnt also. I feel very bad, but all this has been engineered by only one man and that is Joe Biden. He's done it for personal reasons. His approval ratings are very low and Donald Trump is breathing down his neck and he has to show something to the American people; look I've done something, I've won the battle in Ukraine for America.
Whatever will happen now is at the behest of the Americans. As I've said earlier right from 92 the Americans have chosen the enemy. Russia was never the enemy but they chose Russia as the enemy and for this, I am afraid that America may have to pay a terrible price for the folly of Mr. Biden
There is every possibility that a desperate Putin may authorize tactical use of small yield nuclear weapons which the Russians have and that will give them the decisive victory but it will destroy Ukraine and the effects of the atomic fallout are going to be terrible for Europe; there's going to be nuclear dust going in the air and it will spread, the result? Europe will be destroyed.
Nikita Khrushchev first secretary of the Soviet communist party in 1961, had made a statement; he says all he needs is five to six h-bombs- thermonuclear bombs and England will cease to exist on the world map. Very true, England is a small country and playing with fire.
The Americans will be devastated as well and Biden is playing with fire. He is talking and taking a stand in which he wants to bring the entire world against Russia, you see his actions. He got the regime in Pakistan which was pro-Russia destabilized and threw out Imran khan.
Guilio Douhet, the famous air warfare theorist had said a prerequisite to victory is a favorable air situation()FAS) and domination of the air and the Russians had that and still, they haven't been able to win. They have not lost but they haven't won and victory was important for the Russians, in fact, I've been proved wrong. I'll admit it I expected the Russians to overrun Ukraine within two to three weeks at the maximum but they couldn't do anything. They changed priorities and launched an invasion in the East.
No great success as by now they should have captured Odesa and other places. Putin is now at the end of his tether. He doesn't know what to do he's looking for a face-saving way out but I'm not sure.
As I have already pointed out the next option is a nuclear strike. President Macron recently made a statement where he said the West should not humiliate Putin. I agree, the repercussions are an Atomic war. Putin is going to escalate, there could be a nuclear war and that would be the end of western Europe. England and the small countries of Europe will cease to exist. The cheerleaders and some expatriates shouting with glee that so many helicopters and tanks are destroyed by Ukrainians will be singing a different tune.
A cornered man can do anything, Ukraine is going to have a terrible time but is going to affect the Americans also. There will be escalation unless there is a miracle or from somewhere Jesus Christ comes and stops the fighting. Biden and Yelenskyy will be remembered for the destruction of western civilization. I hope it doesn't happen.
© 2022 MG Singh emge