MG is a senior air warrior who is an alumnus of the Staff College and a notable writer on military history.
The seeds of the Ukraine war lie in the American retreat from Afghanistan.. The world watched Americans negotiating with the very. men who had been branded as terrorists and carried huge sums of money on their heads. I will not go into details but Joe Biden showed a complete lack of acumen and statesman-like qualities when he ordered a precipitous retreat. The retreat was chaotic and the American army just left their stations and billions of dollars worth of weapons including the men who had supported them and many Americans in the clutch of the Taliban and ran away. . The Americans faced derision but there was a great concern in Southeast Asia that America could not be relied upon.
Joe Biden and the American think tank thought to recover the lost ground in the Afghan retreat and show to the world and American people that they meant business and picked Ukraine and Russia. Just as George Bush lost focus and left Afghanistan to attack Iraq, Biden lost focus on `Southeast Asia and thought he would earn brownie points with his actions on Ukraine.
There were a series of miscalculations because there was a point up to which Americans could go to support Ukraine but not beyond that, in the sense they did not want to have physical combat with Russia. It was like Rumor Godden's book "Thus far and no further."
The Americans created a false euphoria in the mind of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and this man being a novice swallowed the American line in toto. He became belligerent against Russia and openly began to announce that he would join NATO and the EU. NATO as we all know is a military alliance against Russia. No American can deny it, because when Russia asked for membership in NATO when Boris Yeltsin was president, Bill Clinton sidestepped the issue. The aim was to create Russia as an enemy and the reason for the existence of NATO and the Anglo-Saxon hegemony over Europe.
Russia had made it plain that the incorporation of Ukraine into NATO was an existentialist threat to them and they would not tolerate it. When they asked for security guarantees on this issue from America Joe Biden was talking that these points were non-starters. He seriously miscalculated the response of Putin and that is the crux of the problem.
Downfall of America
Newton's third law of motion states that action and reaction are a part of dynamics and this is precisely what happened. The Ukrainian president Yelenskyy was very confident that in a fight with Russia, NATO, and the Americans would come on his side. He was also sure that Ukraine will be fast-tracked and made a member of NATO and the European Union. The Americans had no such plans but this was the impression that was created in the minds of the Ukrainian president with the result he became more belligerent and when the Russians attacked he was extremely confident.
Within a week of the battle with Russia having come almost 75 to 100 km inside Ukraine, he realized that he had been taken up the garden path but the dice had been cast and now Russians were attacking and moving inside. He made many requests for fast-track membership to NATO as well as the European Union but these were rejected. He also requested NATO to declare Ukraine as a no-fly zone which was also rejected.
Joe Biden at that time must be wondering what to do. He started by putting unprecedented sanctions on Russia. He never looked at history and saw that the same thing had been done by the Americans in 1940 against Japan resulting in the attack on Pearl Harbor. That was the time when the world led by the Americans had put a trade embargo on Japan.
Yelenskyy seriously miscalculated the response of the European powers and President Macron and the German president refused to toe the American line and kept importing Russian oil and gas. More important Germany decided henceforth to keep 2% of their GDP as part of the defense budget that works out for almost $125 billion and the Americans were alarmed as Germany planned to militarize.
The French had already withdrawn from NATO and were not part of the scheme of things but the French President Macron made it clear, that was no question of any FastTrack entry to the European Union and there is no provision to make any country a member of the European Union when it was at war with another country.
All the bluff and bluster of Yelenskyy evaporated and he began to sing a different tune. He was prepared to negotiate with the Russians and also give a guarantee that he would not join NATO. He also wanted to have a meeting with Putin. More important he wanted a cease-fire with Russia as he realized he was heading for defeat.
Russians did come for negotiating but gave Yelenskyy nothing and the offensive continued.
The realization has dawned on people that America cannot be relied upon. Even a blind man can see that the American acts on Ukraine were simply a thought process that Biden could improve his rankings in America and the world. The net result has been the opposite and now people are very sure that if the chips are down America is not going to fight China over Taiwan or any other matter.
The American people must be informed that nearly 3 billion people led by India and China ( More than half of humanity) have refused sanctions on Russia and Russia is going to survive but I can't say the same for the Americans who have signed their own death warrant as a global power.
The last sermon
The situation is very precarious as the Russian army has surrounded the capital Kyiv and the important city of Kharkiv. As the map will show Russians have occupied thousands of square miles of Ukraine and effectively they have created two separate republics in the eastern region which have been recognized by many countries. Ukraine is divided and the only thing they can now hope is that there's no further division.
There are many Americans talking a lot of nonsense that America should come on the side of Ukraine; little realizing that this will lead to World War III because you are dealing with an enemy which you have created yourself. Vladimir Putin had already made it plain that the incorporation of Ukraine into NATO was an existentialist threat to Russia and would not be acceptable. He had drawn the red line which Biden could not see. Now by his actions, he has sowed the seeds of the destruction of Ukraine for the next 50 years and I greatly fear that some terrorist organizations could blow up any of the nuclear plants and that would be the death of Ukraine.
Russians are having support and fighters from Syria have entered the scene. Yelenskyy does not know what war is and he has been arming the citizens with AK-47s. Nothing could be sillier than this as these men are not professional soldiers and will just be cannon fodder for Russians. Thousands will get killed for nothing because of the foolishness of Yelenskyy. In any case, he's not a knight in shining armor as his name features in the Panama papers along with 35 politicians who have stacked millions of dollars in properties in London and other places.
The repercussions for America are bad. The sanctions are self-defeating and already their effect is coming on America. America can survive it but it will never be able to survive the loss of credibility which has now taken place. I am pretty sure that the Americans are going to ditch Taiwan. I write with some confidence and I hope my American friends will realize that until the United States does not recognize Taiwan as an independent country and still insists that it is part of China is just the ground as per international law for China to reclaim what even the American agree is part of China. Just as Richard Nixon washed his hands of Chiang Kai Shek, one can be very sure America is going to do the same in Southeast Asia.
The sad part is the Mogul empire lasted 300 years the Ottoman Empire 600 years and the British Empire lasted 200 years but the American hegemony is going to finish within 75 years and all because morons like Joe Biden became presidents of the United States.
© 2022 MG Singh emge