A senior air warrior, graduate from the Staff College and a PG in military studies. He is qualified to write on war and allied matters.
To start with I will quote Lt Col Daniel Davis, Senior Fellow Defense Priorities. He was on the Fox News channel and is of the opinion that the Russian invasion was justified. He was also against any American intervention in Ukraine and gave the analogy that would the Americans tolerate if Russia instigated Mexico and sent troops there?
The information which is coming at the moment is pretty confusing but it is clear that Putin has ordered the Russian army into Ukraine. As per the Russian claim, the entire air defense system of Ukraine has been disabled. This gives Russia air superiority and follows the classic dictum of Guilio Douhet's of FAS (Favorable Air Situation) for success in any war.
Another significant man on Fox News Morgan Wright, Sentelone, Chief Security Advisor has said that the Russians have disabled the banking system and the communication system by a cyber attack. He was of the opinion that Russian security agents were inside Ukraine for many months and occupied key positions with the help of local supporters and were in a position to sabotage the communication and banking system of Ukraine. It follows the classical system of creating panic in enemy ranks.
At the moment we do not know what are the military objectives of Russia but there is no doubt that much of this problem is the creation of Mr. Joe Biden. This man's approval ratings are going down every day and he wanted to shore up his ratings. He thought that after the mother of all the retreats in Afghanistan, he would be able to get his ratings going up by showing a strong face on Ukraine.
Why the invasion?
Joe Biden made a serious miscalculation. The problem has been brewing for some time when Ukraine applied for membership in NATO. Vladimir Putin the Russian president made it very clear that membership of Ukraine in NATO is not acceptable to him. Yet Biden kept mouthing support for Ukraine. The idea was to ring Russia by hostile nations and keep it weak for the next hundred years. They thought this would ensure the Anglo-Saxon hegemony over Europe for the next century.
The Russian president was repeatedly asking Anglo-Saxon powers to give a security guarantee that Ukraine will not be incorporated in NATO but we are all aware that Biden made a statement that most of the points raised by Russia were "nonstarters." When he was making the statement he was not aware that Putin was going to outsmart him.
Maybe, at the back of his mind, he thought that it would be something that would benefit America and if Russia does attack Ukraine he would be able to sell more weapons to Ukraine, earn money, and get brownie points at home. He egged Ukraine to oppose Russia and not agree to a compromise. He also fostered a belief in Ukraine that NATO will come on the side of Ukraine in a real hot war.
It was apparent to all people except the Ukrainian leadership, that America was not going to intervene physically in Ukraine for a number of reasons. One of which was the lack of unity in NATO itself with Germany and France not keen to confront Russia by going to war on Ukraine. Even in America, there is a significant line of thought articulated by former President Trump who opposes the policy of Joe Biden and is not keen that the USA should confront Russia over Ukraine.
Keeping this in mind the Russian invasion looks justified and as usual Joe Biden has made himself look weak.
What will be the outcome of the present war and the Russian invasion is immaterial. Putin has already said that Russia has no intention to occupy Ukraine but the net result of all this is that Ukraine will never become a member of NATO and the Americans and the British will not have Ukraine as a frontline enemy state to Russia.
The Ukrainian leadership would've realized the hollow words of Joe Biden who was following a policy in Ukraine to keep the pot boiling and improve his standing at home. He wanted to show the American people that he was a strong leader but all in all, in my view he failed. He's just threatening sanctions; these are self-defeating and the Germans know it. I will state that this tragedy would not have taken place in case Donald Trump had been president. Yet, it is very sad that there is a fringe in America that keeps on harping on the fact that Donald Trump is a 'traitor' and everything under the sun; nothing could be sillier than that.
© 2022 MG Singh emge