Things started getting normal when the second wave of fear is subsiding, the third wave started looming large, can it be avoided?
It is necessary to avoid Covid-19 third wave coming in
India’s Covid-19 third wave may begin soon
The second brutal wave of Covid-19 in India is just about to recede and further talk regarding the next third wave has already emerged.
Many areas and appropriate country pockets have already commenced lifting physical movements, constraints, and related restrictions. This week, the IIT Kanpur has published a mathematical model. They have predicted the likely three-wave scenarios in our country. By July 15, most of the restriction models of Covid-19 will be revoked. It can, thereafter, witness another worst-case Covid-19 scenario in India, which could catch a glimpse of more than 600,000 virus cases every day, and that will peak by September this year. We have already witnessed the second Covid-19 wave that has peaked at the level of above 400,000 cases in the month of May 2021. At its best level of the case scenario, each day cases has reached above 200,000.
In every scenario, we have envisioned the possibility of the third wave to become apparent and that is projected to be drastically bigger than India’s second and first waves, in which cases, the peak level of 98,500 each day was reached in October 2020. Therefore, the researchers and academicians have consistently emphasized to need for an appropriate vaccination program to demolish such peak levels, but they have not clarified to what extent it can reach and what actions to be taken to avoid them.
Certain health institutes and public hospitals are worried that the third wave is likely to begin earlier than expected, maybe in another two months. Many health workers and officials predict that the western segment of Maharashtra was having the worst-affected states when the second wave commenced. If the lockdown restrictions are revoked, as has been done in many segments of the Maharashtra state, there is a possibility of the third wave appearing within a fortnight.
So far, India has already vaccinated merely 4% of the overall population. This further raises the fear of the third Covid-19 case wave in the country and that can cause in a catastrophic figure of Covid-19 cases, to be hospitalized and also resulting in deaths, though they had already recovered from the devastating previous virus infections.
Taking into account the scientific model of pandemic-related cases, these projected figures are mainly depending on what is happening today, when the second wave of India has already receded and vaccination position has already picked up.
India’s Covid-19 third wave can prove to be worse than ever imagined
The researchers, scientists, and academicians agree that there should be a proper vaccination drive and policy measures to help India prevent anything worse to happen, more than what we witnessed in the April and May of 2021.
There are also questions raised to understand whether the predicted third wave will really happen, having known the various Covid-19 cases experienced in various parts of India in the previous year, whereas, the “wave” is usually explained as the rise in the number of new infection cases consistently. Hence, there is no strong ground to consider or imagine that the third wave is about to happen and also there is no explanation to believe that the Covid-19 cases are likely to increase even higher.” A large number of people were infected during the first and second waves, hence, the conditions have already provided particular protective immunity to people.
The frightening Delta variant was alleged to be the major cause behind the second wave stream in India. Moreover, India should be in a position to completely vaccinate almost 25% of the most vulnerable above 45 years old people. AstraZeneca vaccine two doses, known to be Covishield developed in India, have already found to be effective and protective against any hospitalization cases apart from preventing many other severe diseases.
Increasing vaccinations dimensions
In case the third wave will emerge, vaccination of people will act as a strong run through in the armory of India. However, the program of immunization takes off very slowly, because, it is refrained by the tremendous shortages of Covishield doses, and this is mainly due to an ill-conceived and asymmetrical procurement method.
India has been trying to overcome these constraints by increasing the momentum of the program, by administering almost 9.8 million doses by the end of June 2021, as per the statement made by the government. However, they should also require to sustain this condition by outpacing the emergence of another wave along with its variants.
Even though the authorities will speed up Covishield vaccination of people, there will remain various gaps of careless, ignorant, and unvaccinated populations in India. To prevent the initiation of the third wave and to reduce the possible transmission of the virus as much as possible, we should improve and increase our health care facility and speed up the vaccination process. Yet, in the deficiency of very large vaccine coverage, any level of health scale facilities will be breached eventually by alarming growth.
Unlike the prevailing second wave, India needs to proactively recognize and curtail the third wave occurrence and avoid any kind of exponential growth of virus cases in any part of the country. The moment hospitals will start getting new virus patients, it will be restrained by already too late conditions. Hence, the only solution is to work extremely hard at this moment to work out the plan, implement and act to prevent getting into the third wave trap ever again.
This content is accurate and true to the best of the author’s knowledge and is not meant to substitute for formal and individualized advice from a qualified professional.
© 2021 Shyam Gokarn