A senior air warrior, graduate from the Staff College and a PG in military studies. He is qualified to write on war and allied matters.
After the defeat of Nazi Germany, the European powers realized that war was a losing business and despite the rise of the USSR, the watchword was detente. This basically means the easing of hostility or strained relations, especially between countries. During this period as a young man, I visited Europe and it appeared that there was hope and peace.
Now 30 years later, I have concluded that the Anglo-Saxon powers namely the UK and the USA are fast losing their domination over the globe but are somehow still clinging to the idea of world domination. Initially, matters were helped with the collapse of the Soviet Union, leaving the Anglo-Saxons to lord it over Europe but the 21st century has brought in new challenges.
A look back to the last 100 years will show that Europeans have always been at each other's throats. In the 20th century, Europe was the playground of dictators and this led to two world wars, that almost destroyed Europe. Nuclear weapons were not available at that time, otherwise, Europe would have ceased to exist.
The first world war was rooted in Continental rivalry and the seeds of the Second World War lay in the treaty of Versailles(1919) where the Allies tried to emasculate Germany and finish it as a power for the 20th century.
The rise of Vladimir Putin is the fly in the ointment of dreams of domination of the Anglo-Saxon Powers. They cannot countenance a rival power center to their domination in Europe and the seeds of the Third World War, if any, will lie in this desire of the United States and the UK to try and keep Russia perpetually weak for the next 100 years.
After the break-up of the Soviet Union, the United States decided that efforts should be made to see that Russia is never a threat to their dominance. Much earlier in 1949, they had created NATO as a sort of umbrella to further their domination. History however is a very cruel taskmaster and what was correct in 1949 is not really valid now. It has become an obsolete organization and no less a man than the US President Donald Trump articulated this view.
The plan of the UK and USA was basically to surround Russia with NATO countries and ensure that Russia is always under threat and will not be a force for the next 100 years. They went about their plan meticulously and began to incorporate all the Soviet republics which had broken from Russia as well as the Warsaw Pact countries as members of NATO. Article 5 of this treaty mentions that an attack on any country would be treated as an attract on NATO and USA will do the needful. The small European countries without the proper defense mechanism and military swallowed the American line hook, line, and sinker.
Vladimir Putin saw through the game of the Americans. The Americans began to instigate Ukraine against Russia; this was part of the American grand plan. There were moves to incorporate Ukraine as part of NATO at a future date. The Russian leader objected to it and demanded security guarantees from the United States and the UK.
The US and UK refused to give any guarantee and at the same time, they began to arm Ukraine. This was not gratis but on payment and the military-industrial complex in the USA began to benefit. The plan was to sell the weapons to East European countries and make a fat profit, at the same time keeping the threat alive by raising the bogie of Russian intervention.
The Western powers left no stone unturned to provoke Russia and finally, Vladamir Putin reacted. He has now occupied eastern Ukraine and set up two independent republics. This has surprised the Anglo-Saxon powers because militarily they had no intention to intervene in Ukraine at all. The idea was only to keep the pot boiling and keep on selling weapons to Ukraine and other countries and keep Russia under pressure.
World war III and destruction
The last part of my article is a hypothetical concept and may or may not happen. President Putin has presented the Anglo-Saxon powers with a fait accompli. Americans were expecting Russia to mount the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This has not happened because Putin has played his cards adroitly. He has recognized the two breakaway areas in eastern Ukraine and the Russian army has moved in there. It may yet move in later into Ukraine.
President Joe Biden is now on the horns of a dilemma; he has to bite the bullet. Either he has to intervene with the US Armed Forces on behalf of Ukraine to try and push the Russians back or accept Russia as the dominant power in East Europe. Even a layman will tell you that the Americans do not have the capability in a conventional war to throw the Russian army out of Ukraine. They have tried sanctions earlier and now they are trying to apply more sanctions on Russia. I think Biden also knows that sanctions alone are not going to bring Russia to its knees. and so he's trying to enlist the support of the world and make it look like it is Russia versus the world and not Russia versus the USA.
Biden doesn't seem to have much of a thinking brain because he's perhaps aware that two of the biggest powers in the world at the moment China and India are not toeing the American line. China of course is marking its own time when to attack Taiwan.
If NATO intervenes in Ukraine, it is a sure-shot military defeat and then there will be no option but to use tactical nuclear weapons. This may look like an unlikely scenario but the way the American thinking is going using some tactical nuclear weapons in Europe may do the trick. The American military may be thinking on these lines.
Unfortunately for the Americans, the man opposing them is not an ordinary individual and under him, the Russians are already carrying out nuclear drills. In case a limited nuclear weapon is used, the reaction of the Russians is likely to be out of proportion. It could lead to the destruction of the smaller European states who willy-nilly are thinking that NATO is their bread and butter. They risk being destroyed.
The Americans are now faced with a question to which there is no answer. They have bitten off more than they can chew. For them, the best course of action would be to hand over Ukraine to Russia and not try and encircle it. The present policy is having an adverse effect and is driving Russia into the arms of the Chinese. China and Russia have not yet formally signed a military pact but God forbid if they do it. In that case, the American goose will be cooked and their ally Boris Johnson may have no country left.
America must realize that it is not the world's policeman because it does not have the capability or the capacity to enforce its will over the world. This realization will bring peace but only for the time being because the problem of China will remain. The Chinese have made it clear that they would like to be the number one power in the world.
If I may venture an opinion it would be best to dismantle NATO. It is an obsolete organization and new ways must be found to engage with Russia. In the 21st-century the options are limited and nuclear war (the Third World War) in Europe may take place and finish the European civilization. Europe has had two world wars and there may very well be the third one also.
https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-crisis/moscow-kyiv-standoff-could-russian-aggression-trigger-world-war-3-articleshow.html / I Russian invasion of Ukraine imminent? World War 3 on the cards with the US leading.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/17/world/europe/ukraine-russia-europe-nato-security.html. After 30 years peace Ukraine crisis rattles Europe
© 2022 MG Singh emge