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Eclipse of Russia and Usa as China Dominates

An senior air warrior and political observer who has the pulse of the region and can sense a change when it comes.

eclipse-of-russia-and-usa-as-china-dominates

Introduction

Recently in a discussion in the bar with a few of my cronies, we reached some startling conclusions. They are not really startling but these are the actual facts and what happened during the discussion is going to be summarized by me in the paragraphs below.

Just about 3 to 4 decades back, there were two omnipotent powers in the world namely the USSR and the American republic. The colonial powers Japan, the United Kingdom, and France were under eclipse at that time and all they could think of was a possibility that centered on remaining in the sun only courtesy the United States. In other words, they were riding piggyback on American power.

Come to 2022 and the world power equation has totally changed. If I have to discuss all aspects of this change in the power equation, I will need to write a book, which I will do so in due course of time but in this short article I will lay out some points. The first point which I must make here is that Europe as a global political force is finished. There are many reasons for it and not the least is a declining birth rate and lack of growth of population. The demographics of a lack of a younger workforce is like a stranglehold for them. Devoid of raw materials and a working population the only word for Europe is 'doom'.

The United States was one of the strongest economies in the history of the world and had the Americans been judicious in their use of their resources, they would have remained in power for the next 100 years. I am reminded of the famous quote by Bacon who stated that power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. I think this is what happened to America; with this immense power the Americans began to medal in every corner of the world but they never had the willpower for it nor the manpower, considering that the Americans were only 325 Million at the most. There was a global backlash and the Americans because of a series of mediocre and below-par presidents, allowed the situation to develop leading America down to catastrophic defeats in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq.

The biggest miscalculations of the American's to date were regarding China. America always had a soft corner for China and they had supported General Chiang Kai Shek. Roosevelt had taken a special liking for the Chinese. Unfortunately for America, the Chinese Kuomintang party and Chiang were defeated and had to flee mainland China. This was one of the biggest catastrophic defeats suffered in American history and the American think tank began wondering what to do about it. They took the decision to befriend China. How did they go about it? they dumped the Taiwan regime of Chiang and made overtures to the Chinese. So bankrupt was American political thought at the time under Richard Nixon, that when he made a visit to China, he accepted the one-China policy, and at the same time during the visit horror of horrors, he withdrew the seventh fleet from the Eastern Pacific.

The Americans were good businessmen but not good politicians and the net result was that America saw a massive market of over 1 billion people for their benefit. American industry from Apple downwards went to China in a massive way with investment and technology.

The collapse of the USSR was another catastrophic event because the one-state which could stand up to China collapsed like a pack of cards. Russia broke up into 15 or 16 countries and there is no chance that it will ever emulate the glory of the USSR. As things stand, due to a combination of factors the Russian economy's GDP is even less than that of India and Russia has become a satellite state of China, totally dependent on it.


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Rise of China

One factor that causes fear of the Chinese is the massive population of 1.4 billion. Despite the falling birth rate, the Chinese have still millions of men/women in the working-age group which the western world does not have, and that includes Russia whose entire population is just about 145 million, and that also is declining.

China is now the trading center of the world and Americans have a trade deficit of $400 billion with China and India which has a matching population has a deficit of $100 billion. Throughout history, Russia was always regarded as the laggard economically of Europe. Even Peter the great had to bring in experts from England to refurbish the Russian ship industry. The USSR did make tremendous strides but overall after the breakup, the economy has gone down. To a great measure, this happened because of the very shortsighted policy of the United States which applied sanctions on Russia. Now everybody knows the sanctions do not work and have not worked at all because the Russian state is almost like a dictatorship and one man at the helm took the easier path out by opening up to China.

In the late 50s and 60s, one will recollect that the Russians and the Chinese had military clashes and America should have built on that aspect but as I said mediocre leadership of the United States allowed that proposition to spill from their hands. Russia has become a client state of China. The Chinese economy is so strong that it is supporting the economy of Russia. The net result is that an alliance has been created between Russia and China. One thing which Russia does have is military power and the latest nuclear weapons which the Chinese do not have.

2+2 adds up to four and a Russo- Chinese alliance cannot but dominate the world. In contrast, the Americans have nobody on their side except moth-eaten powers like the United Kingdom. The Americans have been trying to get into a military partnership with India which has a population of 1.3 billion but at the same time, the Indian leadership is not playing the ball as it does not want to fight China as a proxy for the Western powers.

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India and China are having problems because both are formidable states but China is playing its cards carefully and so is the Indian leader Modi and I do not think both countries want to have a clash. Lacking manpower, the western world led by the United States had thought of using the Indian manpower in a confrontation with China. This is not going to happen and America and the rest will have to fight their battles themselves.

There is no doubt that China is going about its business in a more professional manner and has built bases in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, East Africa, and has even brought Cuba into the fold. There is however a marked difference in the way the Americans and the Chinese operate. The Americans went and destabilized the regimes and supported unpopular regimes and dictatorships which the Chinese are not doing. The CIA carried out the military coups like in Iran that brought in the Shah and also got the Chilean president Allende murdered. The United States has always used the politics of cloak and dagger and this was bound to boomerang at some stage. America is also divided at home. Most of my friends in the Bar were amused that in America, you could try the chief executive Donald Trump for treason. This shows the divide is extreme in America.

The American situation is so bad that even if Roosevelt comes, he will not be able to undo all the damage which has been done by the last four or five presidents. These men were not nationalists and many of them I think history will record, maybe in a few years to come, were actually Chinese agents, not literally but their actions amounted to that.

Generally, the opinion is that the Americans were tough on Russia because they have nothing to gain economically as they have a small population and they mollycoddled China by giving carte blanche in the South China Sea, accepted one-China policy, and poured in billions of dollars in the economy with technology mainly with the idea that they would reap the benefits of a massive 1.4 billion population

All this made the American state soft and China was quick to capitalize and now the Americans have put an anchor around the neck because if tomorrow China attacks Taiwan it would be within its legal right to take back the island which has been recognized by the world and the United States as a part of China.


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Last word

There is an old saying that nothing is final. Whatever, I have written doesn't mean that it will happen and must definitely happen. America could still rise from the ashes like the mythical bird the Phoenix and lead the free world forward but for that, they will need a leader who is astute and clearheaded and not a muddled individual like the present president.

The Americans will have to change their policy on Russia because it has close cultural ties with the west and nothing with the Chinese. Maybe they are looking for a way to get out of the embrace of China. At the same time, the Americans and the free world must hit the Chinese in their Achilles heel and that is Tibet and Sinkiang. The people in these two states are fed up and previous American presidents did a great mistake from 1950 by recognizing Tibet as a part of China.

The battle is not yet over and I still hope that a president will emerge who can match these forces and put China on the back porch. China is not omnipotent and it has a simmering discontent that needs to be exploited. I wonder if the United States will produce a leader of that caliber to marshall the free world.

Further reading

https://www.andrewerickson.com/2021/11/the-pentagons-2021-china-military-power-report-my-summary/

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3158004/china-2021-economic-growth-expected-exceed-target-despite

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/12/09/america_surrenders_to_china_144805.html

https://www.quora.com/What-action-USA-will-do-if-Taiwan-surrender-to-China

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/true-lessons-nixon-and-kissinger%E2%80%99s-china-strategy-165495

© 2022 MG Singh emge

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