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Analysis of the Battle in Ukraine

MG is a senior air warrior who is an alumnus of the Staff College and a notable writer on military history.

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Beginning

I will write about something which is very important and that is the Battle in Ukraine from the military's point of view. It is important to understand what's going on in Ukraine and what's likely to be the result. It's important to understand that when you go into battle you're looking for a result.

War is an extension of the political aim and that has been articulated by Marshal Clausewitz in his Principles of War. Obviously, the Russians had a political motive when they attacked Ukraine. The West also has a political motive. What is it? to support Ukraine. Now we're going to examine the result of this entire imbroglio.

The first thing which comes to mind is that the battle has gone on for close to 50 days but the Russians have not been able to achieve their objective. What was their objective and why did they continue fighting and why they could not achieve their objective? they are all interlinked questions.

The Russians had superiority in firepower and air power. There's no doubt about that. They had the latest gadgetry including the hypersonic missiles but they probably miscalculated. I would say the Russian generals miscalculated on when and how to attack Ukraine. An example is worth quoting. The Bangladesh campaign in 1971 when the Indian army occupied an area as big as France in 13 days. The result? over 100,000 Pakistani troops surrendered. Putin also probably thought the same will happen when he launched the offensive against Ukraine. `He expected the battle to last 7 to 10 days and initially, the Russians made an announcement asking the Ukrainian army to lay down their arms, which they didn't

This was a fundamental blunder in the sense the Russians failed to realize the resilience of the Ukrainian soldiers. How did this happen? basically, because the Anglo-Saxon powers the UK and the USA dare not lose their hegemony over Europe. They could not allow Ukraine to go the Russian way. It would have a very deleterious effect on the other small nations like Belgium, Poland, etc.

They started overtly and covertly to arm the Ukrainian army with the latest weaponry. They gave them the Stinger shoulder-fired missiles, the anti-tank missiles, and whatnot. The Russians had no means to stop the inflow of the weapons They did not anticipate this development and that's a fundamental strategic error, that they committed.

I have a feeling that the Russian generals probably misled Putin. When Putin realized that victory would not come his way the Russian's failure to capture Kyiv and Kharkiv was the turning point because he changed his strategy. He made his objectives, more reasonable, more achievable; now he's concentrating on the eastern part of Ukraine.

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Discussion

The change in objective means that militarily he's on a strong wicket. There's no doubt about it. However, in almost 50days of fighting the Russians have suffered casualties but so of the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians are worse off, in the sense, they are devastated. I wonder if the Ukrainian president Zelensky ever realized what he was getting into.

There was no need for war if he'd agreed to what Russia was saying. They were saying there will be no eastward expansion of NATO. Nothing wrong with it. This was agreed to by Clinton way back in 92 but he was the man then who overruled it and quietly started expanding eastwards from 98. Why? The Americans wanted to create an enemy otherwise NATO would have gone like the Baghdad pact, SEATO, etc. So they created the enemy Russia. They probably would have incorporated Ukraine into NATO if Putin had not intervened. For Russia it was an existentialist crisis; a matter of survival and in case they are surrounded by enemy countries all over how does Russia survive? The Americans committed a mistake, they thought the Russians were bluffing but the attack came. The Ukrainians had a terrible time, there are over 4 million refugees which could have been avoided but Zelensky is a short-sighted man and maybe he had a deep hatred for the Russians. I really don't know, why, because the Ukrainian people and the Russian people are of the same race, the Slav race. But Zelinski went about the whole thing in such a manner that he made the Russians the enemy, forgetting the fact that Ukraine had been a part of Russia for hundreds of years.

The saddest part of the entire imbroglio is that the man who's responsible for this is Joe Biden, but he is playing with fire. I am reminded of the Hindu god Kuber. He's the god of wealth but the Hindu philosophy tells us that even the coffers of Kuber became empty and the same thing could happen to the USA. They've been fighting wars from Korea, Afghanistan, Libya, and Iraq to just name it they've been everywhere and in75 years must have spent 3 trillion dollars but the achievements are practically zero.

Assessment

The USA went into Ukraine thinking they'll be making Russia bankrupt. They applied all sorts of sanctions but the Russian rouble has not collapsed. The Rouble is resilient and is now quoting at about 82 to a dollar from 190 to a dollar to which it had crashed. The Americans are surprised that their sanctions are not having the desired effect. There are so many countries not agreeing with the sanctions and notably China, India, Turkey, and many more.

Militarily though the Russians have not made headway as much as they would have liked in Ukraine yet they have not lost the will to fight. That's the crucial point; who is the sufferer? Ukraine. Four million refugees, their cities destroyed bombarded. Sadly the Ukrainian people have not realized that this man Zelensky has led them to their doom.

The Russians have already occupied about 20 to 25 percent of the area. Nobody can deny it. They've taken a lot of area in the eastern region and now they're going to concentrate and capture more area. It will effectively divide Ukraine. Is this what Zelensky wanted?

He is talking and appealing to the entire world for help and it's not forthcoming and the Russians are not backing away. They've just changed the strategy. Their main aim was to finish Ukraine as a power of any significance and they have achieved it. The economy of Ukraine is also devastated and again Zelensky cannot escape his culpability in this.

I have a gut feeling the Russians have got something up their sleeve and I won't be surprised if they engineer a nuclear explosion in Ukraine. Zelenskyy has played into the hands of the Anglo-Saxon powers. Both these powers must bear in mind that Nikita Khruschev the First Secretary of the Soviet Communist party way back in 61 had said just about five H bombs and England will cease to exist on the European map. Nothing wrong with it, as it is a factual statement.

Those who play with fire get burned. Zelenskyy has fallen into the trap of Biden. The Russians have not lost, they still occupy a lot of areas in Ukraine. The battle is now at a very critical stage. Zelenskyy should have remembered that wherever America goes it does not bring freedom but death and destruction. Iran, Korea, Libya, Bolivia, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Vietnam the picture is there for all to see.

The western powers are playing with fire. Putin has committed mistakes, no doubt in this campaign but he's a resilient man. He's realized his mistake and changed tactics. Zelenskyy needs to be tried as a war criminal for having brought death and destruction to Ukraine. All this was so avoidable.

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