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Covid-19 Effect of Slowdown — Life After Lockdown

The author is postgraduate in Botany and experienced in IPR handling as well as agribusiness management with an MBA, lives in a farmhouse.

Life not as Usual

The COVID-19 pandemic, wherever it has affected, has created a lot of fear and distress among the communities. Whether this lockdown is going to be the end of the World? No. To tackle the spread of the disease due to this contagious nature, the government has imposed a lockdown for more than one month in many places of the world. Not only people but a lot of activities including production, supply chain and businesses have got affected due to this lockdown.

When the lockdown continued for a long period, naturally, everyone started thinking seriously that how long the containment will prolong. There should be an end to the detaining decisions and things have to revert to normalcy. Understanding this fact the lockdown is being released gradually to bring back the life normalcy. Now it is time for everyone to decide to take appropriate steps to fill the shortfalls due to COVID-19 lockdown.

In many countries like India, citizens believe and expect the leadership will not betray the people and the nation. In many countries, people have lost hope in their leadership. There is a revolutionising change which is expected to happen in the global leadership scenario.

A scene from Indian paddy field

A scene from Indian paddy field

Nature of the Disease

The coronavirus spread considered to be highly contagious on the scale of R0 is 3.0 in nature. This is where one deceased person transmits the infection to three persons. When it crossed a certain level over the period, it takes the form of an exponential curve, community spread and inability to treat the affected people results due to lack of facilities. Many of the governments have succeeded to contain the exponential disease growth and were able to provide medical facilities to virus affected people. Countries have gone for the lockdown to reduce transmission of the virus. In PRC the lockdown started on 23 January 2020 even though the disease started in December 2019 and hence the name COVID-19 for the disease. In Italy lockdown started on 21 February 2020, Middle of March in some states of USA, the UK on 23 March 2020, India 24 March 2020, and so on. By the middle of April, some countries in Europe like Denmark and Germany started reopening their business partially.

Immunity Levels

It is said that the majority of the population acquires immunity once they get attacked with the virus. Less than 3% of the population is only vulnerable and not resistant to the virus. But due to the speed of disease spread, this becomes a significant part of the population. In a country like India where 130 crore population, even 1% (13 million) is very significant.

Up to two months, the government has taken a lot of care and awareness to make the people realise the unforeseen circumstances if there is a slight lack of care. If the disease takes the form of a wildfire it is not possible to do anything for the administration. At a point, the government has to shift the responsibility to the public.

Mass Immunization Programmes

When nearly 97% of the population is not having the innate immunity to resist the disease there is a need for mass immunization. When there is a lack of medicine or vaccine for immunization, post lockdown period is a fearsome situation.

Within another six months, we may get access to the vaccines. Meanwhile, different countries are trying alternatives for building up immunity among the people. There are various efforts which are aiming at acquired immunity for overcoming COVID-19.

Herd Immunity

There is also an alternative view for development which is advocating herd immunity as seen in the case of Switzerland. Even though it was not advisable initially, after controlling the community spread and immunization of considerable population, it needs to be done to eradicate the disease. It is expected that at one point of time we have to return to routines from the lockdown. Amidst social distancing and careful personal disciplines, contagious spreading of the virus is checked. Gradually community will develop immunity against the virus. Once the majority of the population has attained immunity levels then naturally the disease of occurrence will subside. This type of control is called herd immunity. Of course, disease transmission and deaths will be more as people remain active throughout.

One of the best ways to prevent the disease is to stay safe at home to the extent possible. Wear masks while going outside, maintain social distance, wash hands with detergents frequently and take nutritive food having vitamin C. By following these measures and keeping away from unnecessary travels and meetings one can work safely for livelihood and the nation.

Confidence Building

When people are performing their routine duties or moving around after the lockdown period there is a considerable amount of anxiety and distress among the people. Regular social media campaigns, as well as mass media campaigns, are required to build up the confidence level in the public.

Whenever people meet each other or participate in official and community functions there will be always some sort of reservation among the people to mingle each other as well as to participate in collective community efforts fearing the disease. There will be a lot of pressure and control while conducting cultural and traditional programs. A large number of the health-conscious and fearsome public will avoid public gatherings including markets and public transport systems. Private transport will be used for essential requirements.

Lockdown imposing dates of some important countries in the world

CountryDate

Peoples Republic of China

23 January 2020

Italy

21 February 2020

USA

Middle of March 2020

The UK

23 March 2020

India

24 March 2020

Leadership quality with perspective vision will be a decisive factor during unprecedented transformations

Gradual Upward Trends

Academic and Professional Education

During the lockdown period, two different things have happened. Even before the start of the lockdown and before the origin of the coronavirus there was already an increasing trend of online education and coaching. During the lockdown holidays, many competitive youths have utilised the opportunity to learn many new things. Meanwhile, due to lockdown, the exams have got postponed. For the ongoing courses, there were online classes. The students attending the local coaching classes have shifted to the online classes. Most of them have got familiarity with the open libraries available online. Some of the experts are anticipating the trend in the growth of multiple channels of knowledge development resulting in an overall improvement in the knowledge society.

Internet-Based ICT of Communication

Quite naturally the gainer of stay home effect is the Internet-based communications. Despite remaining in shut-down conditions, ICT platforms have been helping the public and administration for many of the services. These are going to get strengthened in the future and are going to be regularly used for development.

Commodity and Equity Markets

Pick up of prices of commodities and equities after the largest COVID-19 correction may take a lot of time to recover. Added to it the production slow down and cautious buying of equities and commodities will also affect prices. Agricultural produce market also will get the effect from these aspects and buying and selling prices going on the decreasing trend. The competitive market hike may not be as vigorous as compared to the earlier period.

Self-Reliance Lessons

The semi-urban and rural areas had the opportunity to learn self-reliance practices during the lockdown period. If the same trend will continue, to a certain extent then there is all possibility of peri-urban, semi-urban and rural self-reliance. This will be true both in the case of essential commodity market as well as household requirements production including farming. Some of the societies have learnt the value-added aspects of perishable commodities. This had a lot of good effect on utilisation of the local production. Experts in the field of production processing feel that despite the initial low-quality production due to lack of expertise, those who involved are going to gain knowledge on quality standards and going to produce high-quality products which are far better than the remotely processed products. A well-planned strategy to network these products with the involvement of Government developmental departments can create some new value chains.

Health and Social Security

A lot of money got pumped into health services and essential medicines. Hospital facilities got upgraded to deliver quick and less risk-free services. The public has gained a lot of knowledge regarding good health and nutrition as well as developing sustainable physiology and immunity. These benefits are going to carry forward in the post-COVID-19 period also.

Environment and Circularity

During the last two months, pollution has gone down considerably. Carbon effluence in the atmosphere has drastically come down and river ware pollution decreased due to the decrease in pollution from transport and industries respectively. In the years to come, the decrease in cash-flow and lesser profits will also result in the recycling of many things and thus a reduction in non-degradable garbage. There will be more emphasis on the generation of maximum returns from the investment made.

Sharp Slowdown

Along with COVID-19 digging a ditch on the economy of the globalised businesses, many of them are going to suffer permanently. As one-third of the global population affected by the lockdown, more than five trillion USD loss is estimated at the beginning of May 2020 due to this malady. Some of the industrial raw material supplies may get affected and transportation also may not complete on stipulated timings. Economic, as well as production slowdowns, may occur due to post lockdown controls and regulations. Some of the sector-wise analysis is done here for discussion.

Production of Goods

Work in large factories where multiple workers are taking part in the activities will also have some adverse effect on productivity. Welfare costs will increase for maintaining the health and hygiene of the workers. In some of the places, 24-hour work on shifts may not be feasible as there will be regulations.

Networking between small factories will be useful for fulfilling the targets.

Taxes and Cess

For many of the non-essential and luxury items the sales taxes and services taxes and cess will be hiked. The government will not be having any other alternative than increasing the taxes to meet the expenditure.

Business Trips

International business trips are anyway not possible because of the travel restrictions. Many of the multinational companies sending an executive to different countries for business and training will not be in a position to do it shortly. The anti-China feelings among the Western business community are going to cause a lot of change in international trade.

Luxury Life

Luxurious cars, luxury weddings, hi-fi parties, travel and tour for enjoyment, outings and eating outside, personal labourers, posh maintenances, and the likewise activities have learnt lessons from the lockdown. On the one hand, people have learnt to live without these things and on the other, the social distancing regulations, as well as futuristic consciousness planning, will result in diminishing in luxury life. The same trend may also be observed in the case of the textile and fashion industry.

Urban Unemployment

Considerable job loss in the urban unorganised sector is expected at the same time in the organised sectors also there is an anticipated reduction in workforce to compensate the profit loss. On the contrary, the movement of migrant labourers and homecoming of people from other countries as well as job losers from cities are going to start a lot of unorganised business in rural areas. Some of them also expected to involve in farming as well as the rural labour force.

China and Allies

Cheap goods from PRC were dumped in the different third world markets is coming to an end with the so-called third world war with a biological weapon. Majority of the world stands against PRC with strategies to hurdle on its business worldwide. Even though there is controversy over the ‘Five Eyes Intelligence Report’ by the collaborative agency of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, United Kingdom and the United States of America there is substance over these allegations ultimately weakening the Chinese leadership on the global market.

Quiz

For each question, choose the best answer. The answer key is below.

  1. Which type of immunity could prevent novel coronavirus causing COVID-19?
    • Innate
    • Adaptive (Acquired)
    • Nourishment
    • All the above
  2. During the COVID-19 lockdown, many educational institutions were closed. What will happen to academics post-lockdown?
    • Get troubled
    • Find a new revolution
    • Stop for two years
    • Become home-based
  3. Do you think, post-COVID-19 agriculture will gain importance and respect?
    • Yes
    • The virus will attack plants
    • Lack of labour will hamper agriculture
    • Lose of market will hamper agriculture
  4. Which of these businesses will be the gainer in the post-COVID-19 world trade?
    • Leather goods
    • ICT software and tools
    • Automobiles
    • Bullet trains
  5. Which of these businesses will the loser in the post-COVID-19 world trade?
    • International tours
    • Chinese pharma products
    • Fashion apparels
    • All the above
  6. Post-COVID-19 nutrition and health consciousness levels may change.
    • Careless once again
    • Deteriorate
    • Health-conscious
    • Health will not be an issue
  7. After a couple of years or by the year 2025 which country will be the World leader?
    • India
    • The USA
    • The UAE
    • The PRC
  8. Whether unanticipated problems will become frequent threats to mankind in the future?
    • Virus and microorganisms
    • Pollution related health problems
    • Lack of pure drinking water
    • All the above

Answer Key

  1. All the above
  2. Find a new revolution
  3. Yes
  4. ICT software and tools
  5. All the above
  6. Health-conscious
  7. India
  8. All the above

Mixed Response with More Hopes of Transformation

Ultimately this Coronavirus crisis is going to revolutionize life all over the world. We are going to witness changes in academic, business, employment, tourism and lot more sectors. If it is a worthy opportunity for profitable change, feel lucky. If it is a loss, it will be momentary and face it as a challenge with courage. Some of the sectors, however, are neither gaining nor losing due to its use in any case, like power, banking and politics and a lot more similar ones. Future of communication and its digital transformation has become online. Relying on futuristic teamwork for success, rather than in isolation, particularly in downtrodden situations joining hands with other global leaders would cool down the heartburns. Even though there is an anticipated initial slow down there is all possibility of new technologies getting adopted in various sectors to revolutionize to make an increase in productivity.

This content is accurate and true to the best of the author’s knowledge and is not meant to substitute for formal and individualized advice from a qualified professional.

© 2020 Halemane Muralikrishna

Comments

Halemane Muralikrishna (author) from South India on August 18, 2020:

It is very nice of you that you could visit my article and spend some time on it. Thank you for leaving your appreciative comments.

Shreya MK on July 30, 2020:

Informative,

Everything described perfectly.

Good article Mr. Muralikrishna :)

Halemane Muralikrishna (author) from South India on June 23, 2020:

Thank you Mr Devanshu for spending time and appreciating my article. the "new normal" is creating a lot of fear and distress among the public. At this point of time the role of authors is highly important.

Devanshu Jain from Jaipur on June 23, 2020:

Excellent article. very well detailed and informative.

Halemane Muralikrishna (author) from South India on May 31, 2020:

Thank you for going through my article Ms Shivangi Rani. Good to know that my article could help you to spend your time.

Shivangi Rani on May 30, 2020:

Great topic you chose Sir..these times are quite disturbing..though there are many who suffer more than us.. Moreover.. Covid 19 lockdown has many psychological impacts on the people.. In these times..sitting idly..inclined to the walls of my room..loved to go through your article..

Halemane Muralikrishna (author) from South India on May 24, 2020:

Thank you, Ms Ashwini Kini, for going through my article with keen interest. Whatever happened has happened, those culprits will get the punishment soon. Others have to confidently face the challenges and be ready for change.

Ashwini Kini from Dakshin Kannad on May 24, 2020:

Also, just loved the sentence " If it is a worthy opportunity for profitable change, feel lucky. If it is a loss, it will be momentary and face it as a challenge with courage" ... It builds moral support. Thanks again Sir

Ashwini Kini from Dakshin Kannad on May 24, 2020:

This article is the mirror image of the present situation around the globe. Starting from 20 - 25 years down the line, for the coming generation in order to understand the revolution that took place in the year 2020 and to study the transition, this write up will act as a good material. Thank you Muralikrishna Sir for this.

geetha k on May 21, 2020:

Excellent article. very well detailed and informative.

Halemane Muralikrishna (author) from South India on May 19, 2020:

You have done a good observation, Ms Risha Khan, the Internet-based applications have a lot of hope. Organised workplaces will be comparatively safer compared to unorganised workers and market places.

Risha Khan from Bhilai, Chhattisgarh on May 15, 2020:

Everyone is curious about when the period of lockdown will come to an end and life will return to normal. Your article sheds light on various aspects that must be taken into consideration, Murali Krishna Sir. In the initial phases of lockdown, there were some people who felt the urge to step outside of their homes, despite strict warning from the government. Those steps were taken to curb the effect of virus transmission but few people understood that. Business and other means of employment were shut down while "Work from Home" was encouraged for some IT-based sectors. Pollution decreased as a result of this lockdown and this proved to be a boon for nature.

Industries are enacting strong guidelines to promote social distancing in the workplace so that the economy doesn't suffer any further. Healthcare workers and people who are cleaning the surrounding areas are applauded for their contribution in the battle against Corona virus.

Thank you so much for sharing your invaluable knowledge with us.

Halemane Muralikrishna (author) from South India on May 14, 2020:

Hi Mr Nikhil, thank you for your like-minded approach and also your time spent on reading the article which encouraged me a lot. Let us explore more on better possibilities for a better tomorrow.

Nikhil Sharma from India on May 12, 2020:

Extremely well-researched and well-presented hub, Mr. Murlikrishna. I thoroughly enjoyed reading the article and got many insights about the effect of COVID-19 on various public and private sectors.

I do agree that post lockdown, not only does the people's lives will change, but also businesses will operate with a new culture and guidelines. As told by our Prime Minister, just like the World Wars, the COVID-19 pandemic will change the lives of people all over the world. Thank you so much for writing this engaging article, Mr. Murlikrishna. Looking forward to more such articles in the future.

Halemane Muralikrishna (author) from South India on May 12, 2020:

Thank you, Mr Abhijeet, for reading through my article and finding some value in it. Hope that tomorrow will be good for everyone.

Abhijeet Ganguly from Brampton, Ontario, Canada on May 11, 2020:

Hi Halemane, you have put together a well researched article on Covid-19. It gives a much needed insight that is relevant to current scenario.

Halemane Muralikrishna (author) from South India on May 11, 2020:

Thank you, Mr Vikram and Ms Sneha for going through my article by spending your valuable time on it. In fact, Nature has been kind enough to protect its dependents like us. Too much experimenting with nature some times results in learning lessons like this. Now it is time to not only learn but also to act according to the situation and overcome it. Most of the people have felt that self-reliance practices are the most urgent need to tide over the times.

Sneha Bhat from India on May 11, 2020:

Yes, Nature has shown its calm face by teaching human about their mistakes. Its time for all of us to wake up and take care of our mother nature.

Since i am into teaching field ,what i feel is ,something that would happen five years down the line, has just preponed its task; especially in the teaching field about what we have now called WEBINARS!

Vikram Brahma from Assam, India on May 10, 2020:

Very detailed and contains so much in depth information about Coronavirus. Really came to know so much through your article. Thank you for sharing your findings and thought.

There are some positive sides too but I don't know how we are going to handle that thing.

But I am very happy about mother nature and for our environment.

Shreekrishna Sharma Halemane on May 10, 2020:

Well addressed all the issues related to post Covid situation.

People should have awareness regarding social distancing and personal hygeine to control the spreading of the viruses

Gopal Swaroop Anand on May 10, 2020:

Very clearly brought the points which will gain importance post lock down and proper planning will bring the situation under control.The author is well qualified in the field of botany and utilised his knowledge in the field of his expertise.

Cijini karan on May 10, 2020:

In-depth researched article...very interesting quiz...like to learn more from you ...

Halemane Muralikrishna (author) from South India on May 10, 2020:

Thank you Ms Sowrabha for spending your busy time for reading my article and commenting on it. It is in the minds of every citizens that what will happen tomorrow. So with my apprehensions I did some research and wrote this article.

sowspeaks from Bengaluru on May 10, 2020:

Hi Muraliji , wonderful article with an in-depth analysis of the impact of COVID 19 on different sectors. It was a balanced article looking at both sides of the coin. You article made me realise that this process of change is going to take a long time and politics and business are both going to see lots of shape-shifting.Thank you for such a well researched effort.

Halemane Muralikrishna (author) from South India on May 10, 2020:

Thank you Mr MG Singh for going through my article and offering your valuable observations. The virus has implanted a ghost inside the minds people causing tremendous fear which will affect the work output. Moreover, the private TV channels are creating hell lot of fear in the minds of the public.

MG Singh emge from Singapore on May 10, 2020:

Very thoughtful and researched article. The fact is entire mankind has to learn to live with this virus.